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Actually, buy-to-let started the bubble, but all bubbles are essentially about "trading up" or "buy to sell" or buy to flip". Buy-to-let doesn't result in empty dwellings (quite the opposite: it turns empty dwellings into rental property): "trading up" does.

Buy-to-let is an arbitrage between the rent a property commands and the mortgage payments required to buy it. If the mortgage payments are low relative to rents, buy-to-let will lead to rising demand for building purchases and higher demand for credit. It is quite easy to nip such a bubble in the bud by slightly increasing interest rates so that the property prices don't increase too much and the demand for credit is curtailed.

If, instead, interest rates are kept low or are even lowered further, then property prices start appreciating at double-digit rates and within a couple of years, when the trend has established itself, it becomes more profitable to buy property to resell it rather than to live in it or rent it.

I have no sympathy for buy-to-letters but they were not responsible for the bubble lasting 10 years, only for seeding it.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Apr 6th, 2008 at 05:12:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
No I disagree : Buy to let, being essentially free property, placed normal buyers, the poor saps who actually wanted to live in their property, at extreme disadvantage. Because of the vast differential in cost, in the competitive market of the last 15 years, they were regularly outbid, leading to an inflationary spiral as they were forced to bid higher to get into the market.

What helped this was that multiple buyers became preferred bidders via estate agents. When I sold my flat it never went on the open market as it was bought by a buy-to-let-er who was on their contact list.

Now they are making losses cos the rents aren't equalling the mortgage costs, and are having to sell at a loss. Good, I hope they all lose a lot of money. But I would have preferred such a distortion had been prevented in the first place.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Apr 6th, 2008 at 05:49:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Right, the inflationary spiral could have been prevented by raising interest rates  as soon as the trend established himself. But there were too many people making money out of that.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Apr 6th, 2008 at 06:02:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Also, buy-to-let has been the vehicle of a large number of tax avoidance schemes, due to a failure to close various loopholes, which kept buy-to-let going far beyond simple arbitrage of rents vs mortgages.
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Sun Apr 6th, 2008 at 09:05:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
ABN Amro have an interesting report

 Home Truths

which I have yet to digest fully....

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Sun Apr 6th, 2008 at 09:30:35 AM EST
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