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To supplement you: there were no wast areas of fallow in Central Europe. The co-ops didn't collapse here, their land was distributed, and when taken over by single-family farmers, yields typically fell. I don't know about Russia & Ukraine, but given some periods of grain shortages in Soviet times that even led to accepting US help, I doubt somehow that thatmuch land became fallow.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 7th, 2008 at 01:07:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I found a number of 23 million hectares withdrawn from agricultural production in the last 10 years - as a total for Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 7th, 2008 at 01:12:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ukraine: An Agricultural Overview
Of Ukraine's total land area of 60 million hectares, roughly 42 million is classified as agricultural land... Between 1991 and 2000, sown area dropped by about 5 percent, from 32.0 million hectares to 30.4 million


*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 7th, 2008 at 01:23:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Russia: I found a report from May 2007 in which the Russian minister declares that Russia has 20-25 million hectares of uncultivated/fallow land suitable for cultivation, if there is money invested.

All in all, CIS doesn't seem to be able to offer surplus production for much more than 5% of European consumption, even in the best-case scenario...

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Apr 7th, 2008 at 01:53:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But given we're only trying to reach 10% ethanol content doesn't this mean that Russia alone could provide over half the land required - without affecting food production?

"It's a mystery to me - the game commences, For the usual fee - plus expenses, Confidential information - it's in my diary..."
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Mon Apr 7th, 2008 at 02:48:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No. We're talking about the EU's consumption. If Russia's population were to be added to the EU you'd have a different calculation.

Plus, why should Russia provide the EU's biofuels? Who is the EU to decide what Russia should do with its fallow land? Why should Russia consume its topsoil to then burn the product?

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Apr 7th, 2008 at 02:51:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
... in order to reduce the windfall gains from Russian oil ...

... a wait a minute, there might be a different set of motivations for net producers and net consumers.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Mon Apr 7th, 2008 at 02:57:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"the magic of the markets" will decide who grows what in what quantities for what markets - subject to available land.  Why wouldn't Russia supply biofuel in the same way as it supplies oil and gas if the price paid is attractive enough to justify production?

As AMcF has noted - and increase in bio-fuels has resulted in increased prices for foodstuffs which has made farming in Sub S.saharan Africa more economic and resulted in growing output.  Agriculture has long been the neglected legacy industry of post-industrial and even third world economies and now it is becoming centre stage again.  The problem is when this impacts on wild-life habitats and Rainforests etc. - but presumably this doesn't apply to the same extent in the east European steppes.

"It's a mystery to me - the game commences, For the usual fee - plus expenses, Confidential information - it's in my diary..."

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Mon Apr 7th, 2008 at 03:00:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There's no such thing as "East European steppes". Siberia and Central Asia are, well, in Asia.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Apr 7th, 2008 at 03:04:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If my memory of geography serves me correctly, there are considerable steppes in Eastern Europe (though the natural ecosystems have been heavily modified by human exploitation) as well as the even greater areas east of the Urals.  Either way - there is still considerable potential for Russia to become a significant net exporter of bio-fuels if that becomes economically viable and political policy..

"It's a mystery to me - the game commences, For the usual fee - plus expenses, Confidential information - it's in my diary..."
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Mon Apr 7th, 2008 at 03:15:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Russia's potential for net exports of biofuels is considerable compared to its own total of agricultural production. It is miniscule compared to the total European fuel demand.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 7th, 2008 at 05:26:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Most of the undeveloped land is in all likelihood in Asia. At any rate, it makes little sense to call fuel that has to be transported thousands of kilometres "bio". It is also problematic that to develop this much land, at least under the assumption that the Russian Ministry of Agriculture doesn't convert to orgsanic farming, a lot of fossil oil is needed: for the tractors that plow up the virgin land, for other tractors building irrigation, to run the irrigation itself, and fertilizers.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 7th, 2008 at 05:34:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ukraine used to be the Western end of contiguous steppe, and as such served as the end of the Nomad Alley into Europe during the big migration/invasion waves from Huns to Mongols.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 7th, 2008 at 05:23:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
... prairie in Argentina and no pampas in Iowa.

I thought the extension of the steppe / prairie / pampas / plains into the Ukraine was what that short lass that won Eurovision a couple years back was stomping around about.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Mon Apr 7th, 2008 at 06:04:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
... that is, if there is a family resemblance between BruceMcF and this AMcF fellow ... part of the African Revolution discussed in the most recent Midnight Thought on the Arc of the Sun can be protrayed as "letting the market do its work", but a lot of it also involves building new institutions.

The markets that small scale farmers in Africa need are not the fictitious markets in fictitious commodities, but real, actual, markets, with regulated weights and measures and protection of contracts, and secure access to a transport route to ship out a crop surplus to customers outside the local district.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Tue Apr 8th, 2008 at 12:09:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Personally, I'm only interested in solutions capable of reaching 100%.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 7th, 2008 at 05:37:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
All we need to do is cut our liquid fuel demand by 95%...

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Apr 7th, 2008 at 05:44:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't think anybody here, and increasingly in mainstream discourse, sees biofuels as anything more than a very problematic and marginal "solution" to  the issues created by peak oil.  100% efficient energy solutions are physically impossible, as everything has a production/transmission/utilisation/efficiency cost.  Beyond the obvious solar/wind/wave solutions it gets more problematical with fission and yet to be proven fusion sources.  The biggest contribution will probably be made by demand reduction - due to policy and price pressures - which will tend to impact on the poorest most.  We will probably come to be known as the most profligate generation ever, who presided over a planet wide devastation/exploitation/looting of non renewable resources with irreversible ecological consequences - unprecedented in 65 million years.  Probably at some point there will be world-wide resource wars with Malthussian extinctions of populations in most effected areas.  

A sad commentary on the joys of human "rationality" and our religious devotion to magical market thinking without somehow managed to factor out the ecological impact of our depredations.  Ancient civilisations made a God out of nature and we decry their barbarity, but have we been that much wiser when we ourselves became the masters of nature and proclaimed our subjugation of those Gods?

"It's a mystery to me - the game commences, For the usual fee - plus expenses, Confidential information - it's in my diary..."

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Mon Apr 7th, 2008 at 05:56:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I heard that one of the best things the EU could do would be to build grain silos in Ukraine - the implication being that Ukraine's problem is more irregular yield rather than insufficient average yield over the long term.

That is, if they needed US help it may have been they had a bad year, not that there was a lot of land laying fallow.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Apr 7th, 2008 at 01:21:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
From articles from recent years in a Hungarian agriculture magazine, I find both Ukraine and Russia have fluctuating production of grains, but all the fluctuation is export -- say for Ukraine, between exporting 13 million tons out of 40 million and 3 million out of 30 million.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 7th, 2008 at 01:26:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But that would have a big impact on global grain prices.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Apr 7th, 2008 at 01:51:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Droughts and over-hot spells have produced fluctuations in wheat harvests, not just in Ukraine, but in Canada, the EU, and above all Australia, over the last few years. This is the main single reason for high wheat prices.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Apr 7th, 2008 at 03:42:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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