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... simply cut liquid fuel use to 1/4 of present levels, and produce liquid biofuels equal to 5% of current consumption.

I don't follow the logic of using maize, though ... a lot of effort goes into producing that vegetable protein (and, yes, substantially off ratio for our needs, but then corn is normally intercropped with squash and beans in traditional cultivation, and beans fills in the holes in the corn protein ratios) ... in Northern European conditions, why wouldn't potatoes be used to provide the starch for ethanol?


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Mon Apr 7th, 2008 at 02:30:19 PM EST
BruceMcF:
simply cut liquid fuel use to 1/4 of present levels
That's the bit that our politicians refuse to countenance.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Apr 7th, 2008 at 02:35:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
... but gravity tends to have the last word on that.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Mon Apr 7th, 2008 at 02:37:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I disagree with gravity myself.  I think it is bending the rules.

"It's a mystery to me - the game commences, For the usual fee - plus expenses, Confidential information - it's in my diary..."
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Mon Apr 7th, 2008 at 04:55:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yep, but gravity still wins.

Life is a b....

by Francois in Paris on Mon Apr 7th, 2008 at 11:10:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
nah - I've been on a different planet for a long time.  We don't do gravity here...

"It's a mystery to me - the game commences, For the usual fee - plus expenses, Confidential information - it's in my diary..."
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Tue Apr 8th, 2008 at 09:38:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
... exceed 5% of current liquid fuel consumption is to import, that means that 5% is the highest reasonable target ... imported biofuel, or biofuel made with imported feedstocks, should quite simply not be counted toward meeting whatever target is set.

A "sustainable" energy economy, no matter the technology, can not be sustainable adopted worldwide if it requires imports, since there is no place to import from if adopted worldwide. So "without counting imports" is a necessary (though not sufficient) condition for sustainability.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Mon Apr 7th, 2008 at 02:43:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
BruceMcF:
In any event, if the only way to reasonably ... (none / 0) ... exceed 5% of current liquid fuel consumption is to import, that means that 5% is the highest reasonable target
Right! Up to 2007 the EU had a 6% market share target for biofuels as transport fuels. There was a consultation in 2006 about biofuels which prompted us to dig up the numbers for hectares of arable land, feedstock production, feedstock net exports, biofuel yields, fuel consumption and biofuel energy content. We concluded that the entire EU net exports of grain were needed to meet the 6% ethanol target, and the entire EU oil crop production was needed to meet the 6% biodiesel target. We submitted that to Piebalgs' consultation, and in 2007 the EU decided to increase its target to 10%.


When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Apr 7th, 2008 at 02:57:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Potatoes can be used for ethanol, but they demand good deep soil and water (irrigation often needed), and a lot of manpower plus investment in machinery. But they rot easily and must be stored well out of frost, so, for industrial purposes, are not as handy as maize.

Again, the problem is that you can't just count hectares and say: let's grow this or that. You can only produce industrial quantities of industrially usable crops on land that is fit for them and served by the requisite infrastructure.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Apr 7th, 2008 at 04:07:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ireland used to make all its own sugar requirements from sugar beet.  The last sugar beet factory was only closed down very recently and the operator (Greencore) was paid a large amount of compensation (c. €100M????)for the loss of access to EU sugar markets because of changes in the EU sugar regime agreed with sugar cane exporting countries. Greencore als stands to make many millions from the development of the site of the sugar beet factory in Carlow.

I wrote a LTE to the Irish Times at the time saying the compensation should be made conditional on the factory being converted to bio-ethanol use - thus preserving the livelihoods of farmers and factory workers - and reducing our dependence on imported oil.  (Ireland has one of the highest per capita imported energy footprints in the world)

Needless to say the letter wasn't published.

"It's a mystery to me - the game commences, For the usual fee - plus expenses, Confidential information - it's in my diary..."

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Mon Apr 7th, 2008 at 04:40:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"Madam, - Your Senior Business Correspondent, Arthur Beesley, reported (13th. March, 2006) that Greencore are seeking the lion's share of a €145 million  EU compensation package for the reform of the sugar industry.  They are also seeking the creation of a Local Action Plan which would increase the value of their Carlow factory site to many multiples of its current  €40 million valuation on Greencore's books.

Surely it would be a more effective use of public funds and planning initiatives if the site was redesignated for the production of biofuels and the €145 million was made available to fund the conversion of the plant for this purpose.   Farmers could continue to grow feedstock crops and the production of biofuel would lesson Ireland's dependency on imported oil and help us achieve our Kyoto targets for a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions.

Or is helping Greencore make a short-term financial killing a more important public policy objective?"


"It's a mystery to me - the game commences, For the usual fee - plus expenses, Confidential information - it's in my diary..."

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Mon Apr 7th, 2008 at 06:00:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
... of industrially useful crops is normally the last thing in my list of priorities, since it so often leads low-income nations into an agricultural development cul-de-sac.

Are potatoes as effective as maize (maize mono-culture, that is) at turning good soil into bad soil, burning through massive amounts of nitrogen fertilizer in the process?


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Mon Apr 7th, 2008 at 06:13:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
and with vast quantities of waste product as part of the conversion to energy process

"It's a mystery to me - the game commences, For the usual fee - plus expenses, Confidential information - it's in my diary..."
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Mon Apr 7th, 2008 at 06:20:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
it so often leads low-income nations into an agricultural development cul-de-sac.

Absolutely, hence my repugnance for the usual comparative advantage argument put forward by those who have a Groundnut or other "colonial crop" scheme to sell. Ploughing up virgin Asian steppe for biofuels sounds a bit like that to me.

From the agronomic point of view, I'm not sure about potatoes v maize. Monocultures are bad. Lighter soils are preferred for potatoes because tilling and harvesting are thus easier. The same soils dry faster, so may call for irrigation. Potatoes need considerable amounts of nitrogen, and in these soils + irrigation, that means N will leach down into the aquifer with pesticides. That's off the top of my head, however, no source.

Eurostat gives 2006 EU 27 potato production as 2.25 Mha at an average yield of 25 t/ha.

Wikipedia gives the energy content of the two, per 100 g, as Potato 320 kJ, Maize 360 kJ. So, roughly, maize = (potato x 0.9).

25 x 0.9 = 22.5 t/ha  compared to 6.8 t/ha grain maize!

But I think soil requirements are more stringent than for maize, and maize is much easier to store and handle, making it already industry's favourite. Oh, and is there a potato lobby with any clout?

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Apr 8th, 2008 at 02:39:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I was thinking of the EROI. To grow enough maize to make a massive amount of ethanol, you have to grow it in the unsustainable mono-cropped fields, instead of intercropping it with beans and squash, with means putting energy into the fertilizer. I was under the impression that where maize really sags in terms of EROI is when the energy input into the fertilizer is added in.

And without that energy input, there's no way that get 6+t/h. Either you intercrop with a nitrogen fixing legume, and then you are growing the maize in hills rather than flat rows, and the productivity per plant can be good, but the spacing kills the 6+t/h. Or you deplete the nitrogen, and the yield per plant plummets.

Meanwhile, intercropping potatoes in hilled rows with truck gardening crops you can get more than 10 t/h with a rotation.

Certainly, competing in oil-fed agriculture, potatoes are at a disadvantage to maize, but that may be a temporary state of affairs that will pass.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Tue Apr 8th, 2008 at 09:23:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If you're taking petrochemicals out of the equation, then potatoes would certainly come into their own. Though the Native American hill culture of maize with beans and squash is a good and attractive one. (They used to put down fish offal and build the hills over it).

In petro-farming, maize does call for more nitrogen fertiliser than potatoes. (On the order of, roughly, 300-400 kg/ha N for maize with yields above 10t/ha, while 200 kg/ha N is "enough" for potatoes). While tilling/harvesting will call for more energy in potato culture than maize, particularly with the advent of low- or no-till methods for sowing maize.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Apr 8th, 2008 at 11:05:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
See, there you go. My main focus is in areas where petrochemicals were never put into the equation ... the African definition of a farmer is a person with a hoe.

In petro-farming, maize does call for more nitrogen fertiliser than potatoes. (On the order of, roughly, 300-400 kg/ha N for maize with yields above 10t/ha, while 200 kg/ha N is "enough" for potatoes)

And then translate that to energy yield per hectare over energy cost of nitrogen fertiliser per hectare ... on the above:

22.5 t/ha  compared to 6.8 t/ha grain maize!

that is:
44 kg N-fertilizer / ton maize yield for maize
9 kg N-fertilizer / ton maize-equivalent yield for potatoes

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Tue Apr 8th, 2008 at 11:27:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
NB, rounding maize down, rounding potatoes up.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Tue Apr 8th, 2008 at 11:28:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I was just confirming your point about nitrogen fertiliser being the big energy soak in industrial maize (though note my numbers were for >10t/ha).
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Apr 8th, 2008 at 11:33:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, I just working it out in round numbers, rounded conservatively regarding the working hypothesis that N-fertilizer is a big energy cost of maize.

The numbers were the industrial farming ones above, not the kind of hand-worked fields that lie behind in the latest Arc of the Sun diary ... for discussion of targets in the medium term time-frame in the EU or US, industrial farming has to be assumed, though possibly with marginal movement in the direction of sustainability.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Tue Apr 8th, 2008 at 11:42:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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