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At any given moment in the US (and I believe most of Western Europe), somewhere between 1/4 and 1/3 of the population has solidly formed attachments to their "leader" -- bonds of obedience and belief that are largely impervious to external reality.
Bob Altemeyer's work on the authoritarian personality is widely accepted as transnational by now, by academia, but still a conceptual hot potato--invisible- to most voters. So let's speculate a bit beyond the authoritarians.
Another huge group, between 60% and 75% I would guess, sticks to "Buying a Chevrolet"--Traditional, long-supported parties, Dad's party, the family party----and finds reasons to do so. There is some overlap. There is not much good research showing how much. Hence the guess is yours.
Will the authoritarians make that attachment that brings such incredible, reality-denying obedience to--Obama? A "THEM"? Or will he somehow be magically transformed into an "US"? And if some unforseen (by me) process accomplishes this transformation,--then what of the ocean of the "unworthy" who have died and been --dissappeared? Will we suddenly begin to accept the Lancet study, and the 1.2 million dead Iraquis whose very existence we now deny? How far does this sudden "love your OTHER" go? And the traditionalists- how will they react to Obama in the carefully crafted role of National Leader? Hell --even Reagan was coached by three drama specialists in his presidential role for six months, and he had spent a lifetime pretending to be someone he wasn't. This is a bit of what Obama will face. By the way, I support his presidency strongly. I want answers to these questions that can be had no other way than to --give him a shot at it. But I fear for him.
Useful talking follows experience, the more experience the better. Talking that precedes experience is known as bullshit.
--Will (can?) the authoritarians (most of them white), form the powerful attachment to Obama that their psychology seems to need? What happens to American politics if they do not? Giant loose cannon.
--Will the traditionalists (not all of them conservatives ) accept Obama at the head of the party of their mom and dad, their grandpartents, or at the head of the nation?
--Will all of them suddenly see "scary brown people" as humans too-- altering centuries of deeply ingrained defense mechanisms--you know, the sort of mental tricks that have always made it easy for most people to wear sneakers made by enslaved and abused 12-year-olds,-- without an apparent qualm of conscience?
Remember Binkley's anxiety closet?
We have our guilt closet, and we are not about to open it, I think. Useful talking follows experience, the more experience the better. Talking that precedes experience is known as bullshit.
