On electoral votes, he gives Obama 237 McCain 290 Ties 11 and Clinton 280 McCain 241 Ties 17.
Comments? When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
Clinton's Hard Negatives (percentage of people who say they would never vote for her) started in the 40%'s. Several weeks ago, on - take it for what it is worth - Kos someone posted those had risen into the 50 percentile range. I accept that because I think she has alienated the AA population with her and hubbies racist remarks about Obama. YMMV.
I'll let Drew monster-mash through the statistics.
This is before any active campaigning from Obama.
I'd like to be more optimistic, because these polls won't include new voter registrations, which should be giving the Dems some extra tail wind.
Also, I think McCain is more likely to implode than Obama is. He's such a pile of useless flesh that it's only going to take one slip to kill his campaign.
The chances of him getting to the end of the campaign without saying something cravenly stupid or spectacularly dishonest are not good.
Also, state-by-state polling data tends to lag the national polls, if I'm not mistaken. You'll see a candidate start to tick up in national polls, because his/her support is growing and hardening in base states while undecideds are growing in swing states before shifting to that candidate.
Obama's big pick-ups, based on my read of things, are the following: Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, and Virginia. Those are the first-tier opportunities, and I think the chances are going to be better than 50/50, and probably a good bit better than that. Next would be Nevada, Montana, North Carolina, and Missouri. I think we could divide those states evenly if the campaign is managed properly.
The third tier would include Texas (much closer than expected and a majority-minority state), the Dakotas, and maybe Georgia.
Ohio will be close, but I wouldn't bet on it because of the Appalachia factor. It could flip, but you'd need huge turnout from black folks and white suburbanites in Cleveland, Cinci and Columbus. Possible. Very doable. It's close there now, but Ohio is closer to static than other states, in my opinion, so it'd be an uphill battle. Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
I think most Ron Paul supporters (5-10% of the GOP) are going to go for Obama because of the war, and because Paul has already begun making noises that are, I think, intended to push his supporters that way. So what I'm saying is that I believe you're going to see some anti-war defections from the GOP to Obama, as well as some defections by the Huckabee crowd to Bob Barr. It hasn't gotten ramped up yet, but keep an eye on it. Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
He's on the right track, but I believe he's underestimating Obama's potential with the white vote, and is therefore writing off states without great reason. What he's really picking up on is that the demographics of the country are simply moving in a way that favors Dems over time.
He's writing some states off that I don't think the polling data supports writing off. Montana, Alaska, Virginia, the Dakotas, Missouri, Texas, and the Carolinas jump out to me immediately. As I said, Obama and McCain are tied in NC and VA, for all practical purposes, and the same goes for Montana, Alaska and Texas. We haven't had a poll out of SC since late-February (McCain only +3 at the time), so I can't judge that one.
When I choose my pick for The Big Possible SurpriseTM for the '08 election, there's a chance it might be Texas if this sort of thing keeps up. Again, it's a majority-minority state. Now, granted, whites in Texas are really white and a special kind of crazy, but you have a similar effect there to what you've got in places like Virginia, Georgia and North Carolina: At least one massive, diverse city that offers Dems an opening. In the case of Texas, there are actually four such cities: Houston, Dallas-Ft Worth, Austin, and San Antonio. If you can deliver massive turnout among Latinos and blacks, and then pick off those white suburbs around the big cities (one group to which Obama tends to sell very well), you've got a good shot. Maybe no better than even, but good.
Peyote Bill, especially, could offer some serious help. Sebelius, too. Less so Kaine, whose appeal is really just a one-state thing, along with a little help given his roots in Missouri and Kansas.
And, anyway, Obama's kind of a cocky little shit, so Texas would make sense.
The real point -- and Poblano's made this before -- is that, properly executed (and, to their credit, the Obama team seems to do that pretty consistently), I think we can bust up a lot of states and end this duopoly that Florida and Ohio have over the country. Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
But it's going to depend on how much crap the Rs can find to throw at Obama. I get the impression the Rs don't really have a strategy. They'll be doing tooting on the dog whistle, but that's not going to do anything for the 60-70% of the population who aren't racist little thugs.
McCain has no chance with the AA vote, and that leaves his constituency looking bare. Evangelicals won't be inspired, the Money will vote dutifully but not very significantly in terms of numbers, so overall McCain is going to be lucky to get >45% of the total vote.
Obama's campaign so far has responded to attacks blindingly quickly, and I don't think McCain has either the smarts of the stamina to put up a convincing fight.
It's not too much of an exaggeration to suggest that all Obama has to do is be polite and reasonable and wait for McCain to lose his temper on TV.
McCain's real problem is that any bit of ammo he's got to go after Obama is matched by much heavier artillery that Obama can use on McCain. So Obama can say to him, "Alright, asshole, wanna run Wright commercials? Great, let's introduce Catholics to Hagee and the country in general to Parsley." McCain will be reduced to a stuttering idiot.
"My friends, I don't think Catholics are whores or that my wife is a trollop or a cunt."
"Elitism"? McCain's got his own private jet. End of story.
Even on the silly identity games, McCain is a lot more vulnerable.
It'd be great. Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
