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Independent - Poll blow to PM

Gordon Brown's attempted fightback has failed to win over voters ahead of this week's crucial Crewe and Nantwich by-election, according to a new poll.

Labour is 17 points adrift of the Conservatives, the ComRes survey for The Independent on Sunday shows......

Last night an ICM poll in the constituency for the News of the World gave the Tories an eight-point lead, putting them on 45 per cent to Labour's 37 per cent.

A national YouGov survey for The Sunday Times puts the Conservatives 20 points ahead on 45 per cent to 25 per cent.

that's a staggering result, Crewe is a real dyed in the wool "pink pussycat" seat, ie Labour would win even if they put up a pink cat; to lose this would be an incredible loss.

A couple of weeks ago the tories were just hoping to do really well, today on the andrew Marr show he was looking pretty smug about the Tories probably winning the seat. This would be huge, panic would set in across the Labour benches, remember these people are useless and have are unemployable outside of the political process. which means their careers are dependent upon not losing their seats.

so if this by-election is lost, there will be changes at the top. Brown will almost certainly go and I can't see Darling staying around, his credibility is non-existent. Even if either Milliband or Balls (both NuLab loyalists) become PM, I imagine there will be a reassertion of the socialist left, theirs has been the only credible critique of late. Even if I personally disagree with their solutions at least they get where the problem lies.

UK politics could get mighty interesting after Crewe

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun May 18th, 2008 at 06:09:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Does Labour have time to turn things around before May 2010, assuming they delay the general election as far as possible?

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun May 18th, 2008 at 06:21:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Do they have time ? No. If there were credible senior figures within the Labour party who could change things it's possible, but NuLab is about the suprression of thought and even competence in pursuit of ideological conformity. They even ensured that the MPs who entered parliament had no thoughts of their own, so they actively selected out the diversity that they now desperately need.

So the very personality types they need are absent. However I imagine they might be able to make a fist of some forms of change, but I really think they will have to lick their wounds in oppositon.

I do not celebrate this possibility, this is like preferring McCain to Clinton and will hurt the country. But I simply do not see them creating a new credible narrative with this bunch.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun May 18th, 2008 at 06:44:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
How about John McDonnell?

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun May 18th, 2008 at 06:49:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Left Wing ExtremistTM. NuLab won't touch him.

Except for that, he'd be the most interesting choice.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sun May 18th, 2008 at 07:15:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Helen did say
Even if either Milliband or Balls (both NuLab loyalists) become PM, I imagine there will be a reassertion of the socialist left, theirs has been the only credible critique of late.


When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun May 18th, 2008 at 07:18:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Whither NuLab™, and for how long?

When locusts move on, they leave nothing behind
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sun May 18th, 2008 at 08:54:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think Helen's point that the OldLab has been gutted is hard to argue against. With lack of consituency level support, and with the Tory press sharpening the knives, and with NuLab stuffed to the nose hairs with Tony Cronies, and without real leadership - Tony offered it, albeit in a bad way, and Gordon is probably about as good as the remainder - there's not going to be a lot that NuLab can offer.

What the party needs is someone with the charisma of Obama and serious left wing policy goals.

I doubt there's anyone like that in the party. Any likely candidates will have been purged.

The Lib Dems are going to have more chance of winning than NuLab will.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sun May 18th, 2008 at 11:43:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
A good overview of what happened

Guardian - Jeremy Seabrook - The politics of Impotence

New Labour was thus enlisted on the side of the "forces of conservatism", against which Blair is supposed to have set his face to sternly. With its wholehearted submission to the economics of globalisation, New Labour at the same time provided a strong bulwark against any significant discussion of its political consequences.

This is why debate in Britain has been parochial and trivial, and may be the reason why many have voluntarily disfranchised themselves. Popular perception that there is no difference between the Conservatives and New Labour is not a result of apathy or ignorance: it is a proper response to a collusive mainstream agreement on the absence of alternatives.



keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun May 18th, 2008 at 11:58:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The Lib Dems are going to have a hard time beating Labour into third place in any case.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun May 18th, 2008 at 02:35:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So we have a choice between the crazy party, the zombie party and the well-meaning but useless party.

Excellent.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sun May 18th, 2008 at 04:30:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Do you see Labour dropping below 20% of the vote nationally?

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun May 18th, 2008 at 04:42:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If the LibDems stopped turning up their noses at those irritating working class people and made an effort to welcome them, then yes - Labour could drop below 20%.

Otherwise the natural floor is somewhere around 20-25%. And Labour is certainly heading in that direction.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sun May 18th, 2008 at 08:39:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Does it matter? I have heard that Blair got in his last election only 25%, but as there are so many competing parties, one can get already for ~30% the MP.

by Martin (weiser.mensch(at)googlemail.com) on Sun May 18th, 2008 at 08:56:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It matters when Labour is bleeding votes to the Tories who are now polling above 40%.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon May 19th, 2008 at 07:07:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
My question was... loaded. I hear New Labour's death knell. I don't think Old Labour will rise again.

When locusts move on, they leave nothing behind
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sun May 18th, 2008 at 04:00:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, next Saturday there is this

Beyond the Market Economy

which I am seriously considering going to...some really interesting sub-plenaries.

Probably be the usual SWP suspects spouting, but you never know...

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Sun May 18th, 2008 at 06:47:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It does look interesting. however, I fear from past experience that there will be a lot of glib posture politics and little of genuine practicality.

Housing...council houses. Yes. That's a no-brainer....but where ? Who builds ? For profit or at cost ? Aye, there's the rub.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun May 18th, 2008 at 07:34:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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