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But houses are no stocks. After all people were living in those houses and I doubt that many people are willing to take negative armotisation mortgages. Even if the house price goes on upwards for some more time, you still have the debt and you can't sell your house without some form of replacement. When your house price goes up so much, then probably your replacement would be expensive, too. So you would  always end up in trouble.
So people look on the loan and what they can pay back and decide.
If people had reasoned that way we wouldn't be talking about a subprime crisis. Moreover, there were "many" people who took negative-equity or interest-only mortgages. And there is now a higher default rate than anyone expected because people with no equity in their houses are just walking away from them and such a behacioural change just wasn't factored into the mortgage valuation models.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed May 14th, 2008 at 05:04:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Right, as walking away is often even perfectly legal, it is really a subbrain crisis on the side of the lenders.

But still as the banks had to figure in some risk, higher interest would have led to lower leverage?

Der Amerikaner ist die Orchidee unter den Menschen
Volker Pispers

by Martin (weiser.mensch(at)googlemail.com) on Wed May 14th, 2008 at 06:12:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And maybe I'm not that convinced.
The problem is very concentrated on adjustable mortgages, and threatening there even to go in the near prime and prime sector. Too low rates as well lead to higher volatility in rates and make therefore adjustables much more dangerous. As an example look to the variation of lead interest set by the Fed and by the ECB over one cycle. The ECB goes about from 2 - 4%, so we are speaking of a doubling. The Fed goes from 1 - 5.25 % or so, that is more than a fivefold.
With negative interest rates, as the US had for some time, it simply makes sense to buy tinned food on credit and sell it later for profit.

Der Amerikaner ist die Orchidee unter den Menschen
Volker Pispers
by Martin (weiser.mensch(at)googlemail.com) on Thu May 15th, 2008 at 07:55:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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