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For one, I would not make a precondition that "Iran abandons its nuclear program". It is hypocritical in light that the U.S. start Iran along the nuclear path and that the U.S. is in the Middle East handing out nuclear plants to the UAE and Saudi Arabia. I would have tried for more nuanced with stating Iran's nuclear program will not be used for a nuclear weapons program.
by Magnifico on Fri May 16th, 2008 at 03:07:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I would've said, "Iran doesn't have a nuclear weapons program, according to our own intelligence agencies.  Can these idiots not read?"

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Fri May 16th, 2008 at 03:09:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Having voted against one insane jingoistic war as a Senator he seems ready to consider a different insane jingoistic war as a president.

Is this look-tough posturing, or does he mean what he says?

He's been consistent on Israel, so I don't think this is just rhetoric.

Hamas may be a terrorist organisation, but if people vote for it, people vote for it.

This speech is scary because he's really saying that he supports DemocracyTM, where anything goes as long as it's in US and Israeli interests and the other side doesn't get democratic parity.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Fri May 16th, 2008 at 03:22:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Is this look-tough posturing, or does he mean what he says?

This is The Reason I cannot support Obama.  I can't answer that question & neither can anybody else.  With no track record, all answers wind-up being based on his cadre of advisers -  he may not follow - or projection - from his supporter's position(s.)

by ATinNM on Fri May 16th, 2008 at 03:30:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, he hasn't threatened to nuke Iran or been filmed singing 'Bomb, bomb, Iran...' So that has to count in his favour compared to the other contenders.

But he has been consistently pro-Israel with no hint that he might put be willing to try to push for more Carter-ish diplomacy in the ME.

My guess is he'll be too busy dealing with Iraq and domestic issues to spend much time on the ME.

Besides - don't we already have Blair for that?

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Fri May 16th, 2008 at 03:37:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Is Phony Tony still doing ME stuff?  I thought he was off praising Jesus at Yale or something.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Fri May 16th, 2008 at 03:40:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Tony is a veritable dynamo of multi-tasking political genius. He would have found it no problem to save the middle East from the Muslims, turn Europe into a vassal state of the Vatican and preach to the next generation at assorted prestigious world universities.

If only we hadn't destroyed his plans with our pesky petition.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Fri May 16th, 2008 at 04:15:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Still, he was able to screw Brown, so I'm guessing it's not a total loss.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Fri May 16th, 2008 at 04:19:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Somehow the argument

Vote Obama!  He's not completely ga-ga crackers!

doesn't comfort.

My guess is he'll be too busy dealing with Iraq and domestic issues to spend much time on the ME.

Maybe.  There's a strong message, being pushed by all the campaigns, that the 'World is waiting for US leadership.'  

by ATinNM on Fri May 16th, 2008 at 03:55:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
He did not vote against the Iraq war as a Senator.  He hadn't been elected yet.  

"Pretending that you already know the answer when you don't is not actually very helpful." ~Migeru.
by poemless on Fri May 16th, 2008 at 03:35:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You're right.

And if you ask a lot of people about Obama's Iraq vote, I'll be surprised if they don't make the same mistake I just did until I double checked the facts.

Which is kind of creepy too.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Fri May 16th, 2008 at 03:41:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I know I'm right: I volunteered on his Senate campaign.  I totally loved the guy.  The first time I met him I was absolutely star-struck, for days.  Well before he became a household name.  But things got really creepy really quickly.  He shot to stardom, and his actions in the Senate were not as progressive as the way he'd sold himself in his campaign.  He was suddenly all about bi-partisanship.  That was not what he ran on.  He did run on being against the war.  And I think he honestly was.  No one in this town supported it.  But I don't know if he would have voted against it in the Senate.  Why?  Because I think a lot of people in the Senate were against it, but got bullied into voting for it anyway.  And Obama has not shown himself to be able to take a very unpopular stand in the Senate.  he's not the Paul Wellstone.  He has accepted hook, line and sinker the "way things are done" in the Senate.  It's weird.  I don't think he is insincere about being a progressive.  I just think he is as vulnerable to the machinations, pressures, game of politics as anyone else.  


"Pretending that you already know the answer when you don't is not actually very helpful." ~Migeru.
by poemless on Fri May 16th, 2008 at 03:57:37 PM EST
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Well, among blue state Dem senators you did see quite a few vote against it (17-11 by my count)
by MarekNYC on Fri May 16th, 2008 at 04:07:23 PM EST
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In what universe is 17 people "quite a few"?  We're talking about a completely unjustified war!  The whole entire rest of the world knew it was a bad idea.  So good of 21 Democrats to agree.  So sad it wasn't enough.  

"Pretending that you already know the answer when you don't is not actually very helpful." ~Migeru.
by poemless on Fri May 16th, 2008 at 04:30:44 PM EST
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I was simply saying that in support of the idea that the odds are Obama would have voted against the war.
by MarekNYC on Fri May 16th, 2008 at 04:33:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Those with Presidential aspirations generally did not vote against the war, IIRC.

"Pretending that you already know the answer when you don't is not actually very helpful." ~Migeru.
by poemless on Fri May 16th, 2008 at 05:05:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Opposing a war is unserious, every serious person knows that.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri May 16th, 2008 at 06:06:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In a universe of 28 people, clearly.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri May 16th, 2008 at 04:34:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Obviously.

"Pretending that you already know the answer when you don't is not actually very helpful." ~Migeru.
by poemless on Fri May 16th, 2008 at 05:43:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What's his voting record on the Iraqi Appropriation Bills?
by ATinNM on Fri May 16th, 2008 at 04:09:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Uh oh.

Obama's record shows caution, nuance on Iraq - The Boston Globe

Campaigning for the Illinois Senate seat in 2003 and 2004, Obama scolded Bush for invading Iraq and vowed he would "unequivocally" vote against an additional $87 billion to pay for it. Yet since taking office in January 2005, he has voted for four separate war appropriations, totaling more than $300 billion.

Last June, Obama voted no to Senator John F. Kerry's proposal to remove most combat troops from Iraq by July 2007, warning that an "arbitrary deadline" could "compound" the Bush administration's mistake. And last week, he voted for a Republican-sponsored resolution that stated the Senate would not cut off funding for troops in Iraq.

Not quite the dedicated opposition you'd expect from a passionate anti-war candidate.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Fri May 16th, 2008 at 05:22:25 PM EST
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FWIW, I do distinguish between opposing the war and voting for appropriations, esp. when your consituents are calling you asking why their sons in Iraq don't have any body armour.  Granted most of that money is going to line the pockets of private corporations.  But that's very hard to sell to constituents.

"Pretending that you already know the answer when you don't is not actually very helpful." ~Migeru.
by poemless on Fri May 16th, 2008 at 05:25:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
FWIW, I do distinguish between opposing the war and voting for appropriations, esp. when your consituents are calling you asking why their sons in Iraq don't have any body armour.

It's probably not a winnable argument with the electorate, but I think there's also a reasonable argument that says voting for the appropriations is simply keeping the soldiers in harm's way while shoveling money to Bush's corporate buddies.  Cut the funding, and he might have to end it.

The problem, of course, is that Bush may then simply tear Iraq money out of the rest of the Pentagon budget and say, "Nope, you lose again.  Hehehehehehehe."

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Fri May 16th, 2008 at 05:55:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Or blame the Democrats when the number of people coming home in body bags rises. Think he wouldn't dare?
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri May 16th, 2008 at 05:57:31 PM EST
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Well, that hasn't worked for three years, so while I've no doubt he'd try it, it wouldn't sell.  He's wedded to the image of the wood coffins.

Really, my read of it is that he just doesn't care.  Why should he?  It's his war, and he can't run for reelection, so fuck everybody else.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Fri May 16th, 2008 at 06:02:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well yes, but calling his bluff would require bravery ...
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri May 16th, 2008 at 06:03:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Best to not hope for a show of bravery when dealig with the Democrats.  It's been -- what, at least 40 years?

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Fri May 16th, 2008 at 06:22:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I should have known that but it's no surprise.  There is a solid agreement in the US House and Senate "support for the troops" = "leaving them there to die for a bit longer so it doesn't harm my career."  
by ATinNM on Fri May 16th, 2008 at 05:39:12 PM EST
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Is this look-tough posturing, or does he mean what he says?

I suspect mainly the former.  A lot of the press since Bush's speech has centered on Obama and Jewish voters, and so it's probably a lot of needless bullshitting.

The problem, as I see it, is that he hasn't been very consistent on Israel, though, which is what the Reps are trying to capitalize on.  (It's not going to pay off for them, because most people don't have strong feelings about Israel.  And Obama's winning 2-to-1 among Jews anyway.)  As I understand it, Obama and most of his political allies back in Chicago are not wild about Israeli policy, along the lines of Carter (recall Wright and the Hamas/Hezbollah stuff).

The part that I think you're talking about, where he goes into how Bush policy led Hamas ruling Palestine, strikes me as being potentially a worrying bit, but also as probably being just bad writing on his speech-writer's part.  I think he was trying to point out the irony of the Bushies hating Hamas but having brought them to power.

Not slamming the "Iran is developing nukes" meme is what I found worrying.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Fri May 16th, 2008 at 03:37:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I suddenly hear a news reporter asking Barak Obama, "Sir, with the positions you have been taking recently, you seem to be leaning very much toward the pro-republican agenda.  Pro-Israel--no matter what?  Have they been freed from international law?  Very harsh words about Iran, though less harsh than those of your republican opponent, and George Bush, and the various hangers-on, but isn't it true that our own security forces have confirmed that there isn't a weapon's programme, and that there wasn't back in 2003 when the republicans claimed--I mean, senator, these are the exact arguments you could use to bring down not just Bush, who is a figurehead, but the entire corrupt financial system--

Good coverage this evening, thanks!  Barak Obama at a certain point morphed into Tony Blair in my head, and I thought, "Yes, but Tony Blair needed George Bush to push him into a war.  Who's Barak Obama's George Bush?"

But England is smaller than the U.S.  The U.S. is equal biggest, at least, with China and Russia and India and the EU.  

So I thought, "Would Tony Blair have gone to war if he had been president of the United States?"

The U.S. had it's 2004, so I'll make the analogy: as Bush's second term is to John Major's....no no.  But a healthy rate of say and do, about 50/50 is good--but keeping the doing to 50, but the doing is winning the election...I remember the Bill Hick's sketch.



Don't fight forces, use them R. Buckminster Fuller.

by rg (leopold dot lepster at google mail dot com) on Fri May 16th, 2008 at 06:47:33 PM EST
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....heh....I mean, if Obama isn't doing the things he keeps saying he's going to do, do voters expect him to suddenly change his technique when he gets the top job?

Don't fight forces, use them R. Buckminster Fuller.
by rg (leopold dot lepster at google mail dot com) on Fri May 16th, 2008 at 07:08:56 PM EST
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US Operational Intelligence Doctrine is potential (what could be done) based not probable (the most likely course is ...) based.  Theory says this is better as the US is prepared for the Worst Case Scenario to unfold.  In practice it leads to institutionalized paranoia.
by ATinNM on Fri May 16th, 2008 at 03:25:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But that doesn't mean you cannot sit with the Iranians around a table!

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri May 16th, 2008 at 04:44:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Of course not.

But it does mean there are people in positions of power and various interest groups within and outside the US government who see no point to sitting down with the Iranians.  

So far, they've won.

by ATinNM on Fri May 16th, 2008 at 05:29:31 PM EST
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I'm all for talking, but diplomacy with the Iranians is exceedingly complex and requires regular exercising, with experts on the ground who can follow every nuance of the power shifts between all the different elements from bazaari to the sprirtual police. It is also a long term game for which the quarterly-oriented posturing mind is ill-equipped to understand.

Talking also involves listening; and that is possibly the hardest part for such people. Finally I'd ask any w*stern poltician,"OK, what are the 5 pillars of Islam?"

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Fri May 16th, 2008 at 07:17:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm all for talking, but diplomacy with the Iranians is exceedingly complex and requires regular exercising, with experts on the ground who can follow every nuance of the power shifts between all the different elements from bazaari to the sprirtual police.

But wouldn't you agree that's true of diplomacy in general?  It's undoubtedly easier to understand, from the perspective of an American politician or diplomat, the dynamics of Britain or Canada or Australia, but I think it goes to more of a willful ignorance -- the Culture of Emboldened Stupidity, to use Matt Taibbi's brilliant description -- than to specifics about Iran.

Ironically, I'll bet you $5 (€0.20) the only big-name American politician who can name the five pillars of Islam is Rudy Mussolini.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Fri May 16th, 2008 at 07:58:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes it is true in general. Diplomacy is conducted mostly by unseen experts in the culture, language, strategies and tactics of the other side. Political leaders have little to do with this process except for ensuring the long-term support and availability of the experts.

Only when this process leads to mutual agreement can progress be announced publicly. The photo-op is a spin-off of diplomacy, not an instrument.
 

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Sat May 17th, 2008 at 03:38:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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