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It will occur to anyone who has been following news about China this year even casually, but 2008 has indeed been a pretty eventful year for this country, and in not very good ways for the Chinese:

01.25  The Chinese New Year snow storm begins

03.14  Tibetan riots in Lhasa  

05.12  Sichuan earthquake

Not to mention the Qingdao train accident, the outbreak of hand, foot and mouth disease, the international Olympic torch relay demonstrations, etc.

And of course the upcoming Olympic Games have yet to start.

In the last two days, I have heard more and more Chinese make a point of this, going so far as to say: "It is not even June, and we are already so tired.  What still awaits us in the second half of the year?"

Then yesterday, a friend of mine said that her 15-year old Chinese host sister told her that friends at school are talking about how the numbers of the dates of all these disasters add up to 8 (aside from being the current year, 8 is also closely associated with the Olympics, which start on 2008/8/8 -- a date chosen precisely because 8 is a supremely auspicious number in Chinese culture).

I won't insult anyone's intelligence by explaining why reading supernatural meaning in such numerical coincidences is ridiculous for various reasons.  But numbers and dates play a far greater role in Chinese society than they do in Western countries: people regularly consult numerologists to choose phone numbers, plan weddings, business openings, and other important events and numbers, and in Chinese class we are often reminded that 4 is a very unlucky number, because it sounds like the word for "death".

But it made me ponder: Could such numerological irrationality about the dates of this year's disasters be the expression of a deeper unease?  This general "bad news and disaster" fatigue has certain elements of gloom, resignation, even contrition (as of a child who has been severely disciplined by their parent, although they may not know why).  Could the intensity of solidarity and effort to overcome the earthquake tragedy in part be due to a desperate desire to deny or reject the fatalistic pessimism that would result from reading these events at face value?  I seem to recall that the fortunes of the dynasties that ruled over the country were presumed to be an indication of the favor or disfavor of Heaven, or at least that the "Will of Heaven" was invoked to judge or justify what happens or does not happen to the emperors and the people they rule.

I have very little sense of how much such traditional thinking about "Heaven's Will" plays in the minds of contemporary Chinese.  Under normal circumstances (whatever that means in modern China), I would guess very little if any.  But the Chinese are a pretty historically minded people.  And in light of people's attitudes I see recently, I can't help but wonder: are they starting to contemplate Heaven's Will again, even if subconsciously, behind the events of this singularly momentous year for their country?

A language is a dialect with an army and navy.

by marco (cowannar at gmail punkt com) on Mon May 19th, 2008 at 07:58:00 PM EST
Not to mention the Qingdao train accident

You mean Zibo train incident. To which the first reaction was:

Beijing - Qingdao T195 Train Crash | Qingdao China Guide


Chen Gong 陈功, head of the railway bureau in Jinan, Shandong's capital, and Jinan's Party Secretary, Chai TieMin 柴铁民, were fired and are being investigated in connection with the accident.

Which seems a rather nervous "we are doing something" move. The responsibility of the two local officials (or even that of any of their underlings) is not at all certain before one knows the cause. Indeed the local CYA was:

AFP: China blames high speed for train disaster

A local official at the scene of Monday's pre-dawn crash near Zibo city in eastern China's Shandong province also sought to blame the driver of the train from Beijing, believed to have been carrying more than 1,000 people.

"It's human error. The train was going way too fast," Zibo city spokesman Li Chenggang told AFP.

As for the reason for the nervousness, it appears to be quite explicit:

Another reason for the haste appeared to be China's determination to show the accident had caused no major disruption ahead of the Beijing Olympics in August, especially with Qingdao serving as a venue.

"The country has responded very quickly to this. The government has wanted to make sure all the injured are taken care of well and to get the line running as quickly as possible," Zibo spokesman Li said.

"The Olympics are coming."



*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Tue May 20th, 2008 at 06:55:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
DoDo:
Not to mention the Qingdao train accident

You mean Zibo train incident. To which the first reaction was:

Right.  The train was on the way from Beijing to Qingdao and derailed at Zibo.

Yes, it is standard operating procedure, in China as everywhere, to put the blame on human error when billions of dollars of investment stand to be lost if true causes turn out to be more damning, especially when national honor is at stake.  Investigators will even go so far as to tamper with evidence.

See the Airbus A320 disaster in Muhouse, France, for instance:  Pilot Error Is Blamed in Airbus Crash - New York Times

A language is a dialect with an army and navy.

by marco (cowannar at gmail punkt com) on Tue May 20th, 2008 at 07:46:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, blaming the train driver (when driver instructions, singalling, track maintenance might be faults of other railwaymen and decisionmakers at different levels; and sabotage, cow on the rails or a washout after a downpour could be errors of neither of them) would be normal procedure, but instant firing of the local party boss and the local top railwayman isn't.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Tue May 20th, 2008 at 08:30:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Another aspect of this move, aside from scapegoating and "fuzzing up" inquiries into the cause of the accident, is making an example and sending a message to other local officials: Kill the chicken to scare the monkey.

A language is a dialect with an army and navy.
by marco (cowannar at gmail punkt com) on Tue May 20th, 2008 at 11:13:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But that makes sense only if the two do bear actual responsibility for anything in the accident.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Tue May 20th, 2008 at 12:40:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It does make sense.  It makes everyone who is even remotely or potentially connected with ensuring the success of the Olympics doubly alert and industrious about their jobs.  It also induces people in positions of more responsibility to put more pressure in turn on those below them.

(Incidentally, from a Japanese perspective, firing higher-up's for the egregious failures of those they are responsible for is completely logical and a matter of course.  And ultimately I believe this view of responsibility comes from Confucianism.  Although I did not think that this notion of responsibility was still active in China today, perhaps it in fact is, and if so, would be another reason why firing the head of the local railway bureau chief and the local Party Secretary would make perfect sense in this situation.)

A language is a dialect with an army and navy.

by marco (cowannar at gmail punkt com) on Tue May 20th, 2008 at 06:34:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
An excellent opinion piece in Le Monde:

Le Monde.fr : En Chine, le Parti tremble, par Guy Sorman - Asie-Pacifique Le Monde.fr: In China, the Party quakes, by Guy Sorman - Asia-Pacific
Un tremblement de terre, selon la tradition populaire chinoise, n'est pas seulement un accident naturel. De tradition, tout tremblement de terre est annonciateur de mouvements profonds qui affecteront la société. On se souvient encore en Chine, et je m'en souviens pour y avoir assisté, que le gigantesque séisme du Hebei en 1976, qui avait ébranlé Pékin, précéda de peu le décès de Mao Zedong. Il eût été difficile aux Chinois, à cette époque, de ne pas relier les deux événements, à la manière dont on croyait naguère que les catastrophes naturelles anticipaient toujours sur la mort de l'empereur régnant.An earthquake, according to the Chinese folk tradition, is not only a natural occurrence. From tradition, any earthquake east heralds profound movements that affect society. It still remembers China, and I remember to have witnessed the huge earthquake of Hebei in 1976, which had shaken Beijing, shortly before the death of Mao Zedong. It would have been difficult for Chinese at that time not to link the two events, the way we once believed that natural disasters were anticipating still on the death of the reigning emperor.
Quelque quarante ans plus tard, le Parti communiste est parvenu à réduire en poussière la plupart des institutions religieuses, à anéantir les monastères bouddhistes et le clergé taoïste; mais les croyances populaires sont restées intactes, plus solides que jamais peut-être, tel un ultime rempart de la pensée individuelle contre l'idéologie totalitaire officielle.Some forty years later, the Communist Party has managed to reduce dust in most religious institutions, to destroy monasteries and the Buddhist clergy Taoist, but the popular beliefs remained intact, stronger than ever perhaps, as an ultimate bulwark of individual thought against the totalitarian ideology official.
Il est certes trop tôt pour deviner comment les victimes du Sichuan et le peuple chinois vont interpréter la récente catastrophe, mais la réaction rapide, claironnée par les médias officiels et apparemment efficaces, des secours publics aux victimes est significative.It is certainly too early to guess how the victims of Sichuan and the Chinese people will interpret the recent disaster, but the rapid reaction claironnée by the official media and apparently effective, public assistance to the victims is significant.

Whole thing worth reading.

A language is a dialect with an army and navy.

by marco (cowannar at gmail punkt com) on Tue May 20th, 2008 at 11:42:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I didn't know we were already in 2016.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue May 20th, 2008 at 11:44:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Maybe it was the association between 4 and death that influenced his arithmetic.

A language is a dialect with an army and navy.
by marco (cowannar at gmail punkt com) on Tue May 20th, 2008 at 06:21:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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