All the same I wouldn't expect a split at this point, because even if the hardliners lose, it seems it will only be by a small margin. That's plenty of incentive to hang around and have another go at taking over the party in a year or so.
My perception (from left of centre) is also that the backers of parties of the right, generally understand the dangers of a split and use their monetary influence to bring people back into line.
Aznar is fascinating as well of course because you can't help but wonder where the line is between his intrinsic beliefs and his new role as Special Ambassador Plenipotentiary of the United States Right-Wing to Europe...
Maybe there are some parallels here with the case of Rosa Díez, also a prominent Basque female politician, former contender for the Basque Socialist leadership, one of four candidates for PSOE leader in the 2000 Congress where ZP won the contest, and a PSOE MEP until recently when she quit the PSOE over longstanding disagreement with ZP's ETA policy and founded a new party Unity Progress and Democracy which earned her a seat in Parliament from Madrid. When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes