It still won't help, because the genius of the markets has failed to offer any reasonable short or medium term alternative.
Rationing, power cuts, and a limited working week are the next stage, and will guarantee a wave of foreclosures and other financial mayhem.
We are, in fact, completely fucked already.
Only supersized alternative energy projects, like the Severn Barrage, are going to be able to make a dent in what's needed. Anything smaller is going to be cosmetic.
But it's going to take years to get those big projects legislated and built. And we don't have years.
As a rather famous Frenchman (guess which one) once said..."People only accept change when they are faced with necessity, and only recognise necessity when a crisis is upon them".
The solution is not going to be some big thunderbolt from the sky, but a host of smaller actions.
On the wings of a billion butterflys.
The difference now is there's limited industrial capacity, and limited political understanding of the problem. No one could debate the fact that the war in Europe was happening. But you can interpret peak oil and climate change endlessly without having to do anything about them.
If it were framed as a war effort - or something like it - you'd start to see some changes. But that's unlikely to happen with any of the current crop of pols. And the population aren't used to being told they have to make sacrifices, so they're unlikely to vote for anyone who says otherwise.
Peak oil is tied in, at least from an energy perspective, is tied in with climate change. At least in Europe, climate change has been a major political issue for at least a decade. The result of that has been an upswing in R&D across a range of technologies such as printable solar panels, bigger wind turbines, fuel efficency and fuel cells. The scope and range of technolgies that exist and going to exist is truly mind blowing.
These technolgies are coming increasingly on stream and going into production. These are also areas in which Europe dominates. Inudustrial capicaity is limited, but it is not static, it can be increased when demand increaes. It also helps that the EU has the largest industrial base on the planet.
The challegne tends not to be technological, but political and social. People STILL deny that climate change is an issue, that high oil prices are JUST because of taxes, and so forth. Its up to politicans to address the issues, and for an infomed populos to make sure they stay focused.
Thank-fully(!) climate change is the 900lb gorrila sitting in the corner of the room messing the place up. It did not go away, and has now brought its mates along to smash up the party. Europe is better placed than the USA with regard to peak energy because we have taken climate more seriously and have been making investments, both in terms of technology and socially and poltically.
We are not yet on a 'war' footing, and it does take time, but as my original analogy was making, once things get going, progress can be very rapid.
The next decade, mark my words, be very intresting.
Regarding major shift in private transport... I am quite with you here...soutions are way way behind.. adn the investment needed willl take a decade at fast speed....so driving less and flying less is the only option I foresee now. Luckily, this would be enough since we are overusing roughly 15 million barrels per day on unnecessary driving.
Another question is how people would feel about having to drive less and about the oil-realted inflation in agricultural and imported products.
A pleasure I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude
It will be difficult on the transport front.. but not as much in the energy front.. amaor projects in electricity would probably be needed .b. utt hey are roughly on time adn with a delay of 5 years at the most.
Not in the UK, unfortunately. We have plenty of greenwashed PR spin, but not so much of the useful power-generating windmill spin.
The point isn't so much about where we are now, it's that there are no plans - none at all - for dealing with peak oil.
There will be contingencies for rioting and civil unrest, and probably some mouldy minimal food stocks somewhere. But Whitehall and Westminster have no clue how to deal with oil or gas shortages.
The last time this happened inflation exploded, and we were all on a three day week with rolling power cuts trying to survive by candlelight. I don't see any evidence of better organisation this time around.
It's going to take mega-schemes like the Saharan Sun project to make a difference, and that's not looking likely until around 2020 at the earliest.
I wonder if there will be a 'Not investing enough in your future energy needs' funds?!
The problem in SPain is the same as in other parts of the world regading no "forwad thinking" regarding peak-transport but I wanted to point out that not everyone is as fuc*** as UK and other coutnires in similar situations) which may have problem in the electric grid without shrot-term solutions :)
If it gets to the stage of 3-day weeks and rolling power cuts, then I would expect such bureaucratic/administrative luxuries will be ditched quicker than a very quick thing. Of course if our governing classes had been a bit more clueful then we'd have avoided all the costs and inefficiencies of doing a crash build at the same time as world+dog - but you can't have everything.
Regards Luke -- #include witty_sig.h
I start my PHD in nanophysics this July, working on nanocrystalline diamond, which could be a really efficient converter of solar heat to electricity. My project will be trying to adapt the material to use in Condensed Thermal Solar plants, with any luck we'll be producing it within five years at much greater efficiencies than the steam ones used now. If we don't get there, someone will. The technologies are coming and it's beginning to get serious funding so hopefully any new plants in the short term will just be stopgaps.
It's already started. Down here, at least, petrol usage has been flat for the last two years, and some preliminary statistics earlier in the month suggested that counter to all the economists predictions, it had in fact dropped. That's what three years of high prices and a recognition it is only goign to get worse will do to you.
Unfortunately, our government has used it as an excuse not to include transport in its emissions trading scheme. Stupid, stupid, stupid.
I disagree completely. Many such mega-projects, and the Severn Barrage especially,
The demand reduction will be starting now. People will be driving less, flying less, buying less, and heating their homes less. It still won't help, because the genius of the markets has failed to offer any reasonable short or medium term alternative.
we don't have years.
