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We are in a pretty pathetic position it's true, but I take a smidgeon (only a smidgeon mind) of comfort in the fact that we've been indulging in massively drawn out planning procedures for things like the London Array (an extra 45% on the construction cost due to planning delays thankyouverymuch). The UK currently has ~9GW of windpower projects stuck in planning hell and the very real prospect of a similar certifications quagmire for the proposed nuclear fleet.

If it gets to the stage of 3-day weeks and rolling power cuts, then I would expect such bureaucratic/administrative luxuries will be ditched quicker than a very quick thing. Of course if our governing classes had been a bit more clueful then we'd have avoided all the costs and inefficiencies of doing a crash build at the same time as world+dog - but you can't have everything.

Regards
Luke

-- #include witty_sig.h

by silburnl on Thu May 22nd, 2008 at 07:11:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
How far away is the UK from 3-day weeks and rolling blackouts?

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu May 22nd, 2008 at 07:25:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
not too far away, certainly within ten years without new capacity. I went to an excellent lecture about 18 months ago by the energy advisor to the scottish parliament and he laid it out simply, that the UK needs vast investment in energy plants to replace the many nuclear and coal plants being decommissioned over the coming decade.
by darrkespur on Thu May 22nd, 2008 at 07:57:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But that is 10 years of gradual demand increase and stepwise but not catastrophic supply decrease (by power plant attrition). It's not a shock on the scale or speed or the 1973 oil embargo or the mining/power  strikes in the UK in the 1970's.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu May 22nd, 2008 at 04:25:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
no it's definitely a boiling frog thing and governments are aware of it. No wonder there's the push for nuclear and new coal plants, they know they'll need a buffer in the interim.

I start my PHD in nanophysics this July, working on nanocrystalline diamond, which could be a really efficient converter of solar heat to electricity. My project will be trying to adapt the material to use in Condensed Thermal Solar plants, with any luck we'll be producing it within five years at much greater efficiencies than the steam ones used now. If we don't get there, someone will. The technologies are coming and it's beginning to get serious funding so hopefully any new plants in the short term will just be stopgaps.

by darrkespur on Fri May 23rd, 2008 at 07:01:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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