European Tribune

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kcurie:
It will be difficult on the transport front.. but not as much in the energy front.. amaor projects in electricity would probably be needed .b. utt hey are roughly on time adn with a delay of 5 years at the most.

Not in the UK, unfortunately. We have plenty of greenwashed PR spin, but not so much of the useful power-generating windmill spin.

The point isn't so much about where we are now, it's that there are no plans - none at all - for dealing with peak oil.

There will be contingencies for rioting and civil unrest, and probably some mouldy minimal food stocks somewhere. But Whitehall and Westminster have no clue how to deal with oil or gas shortages.

The last time this happened inflation exploded, and we were all on a three day week with rolling power cuts trying to survive by candlelight. I don't see any evidence of better organisation this time around.

It's going to take mega-schemes like the Saharan Sun project to make a difference, and that's not looking likely until around 2020 at the earliest.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed May 21st, 2008 at 08:22:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
True, the UK is in a worse position than most. THe British are going to have to rely on the kindness of those presky Brussels bureacrats!

I wonder if there will be a 'Not investing enough in your future energy needs' funds?!

by EvilEuropean (evileuropean@googlemail.com) on Wed May 21st, 2008 at 09:20:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I agree completley. the UK is in s more difficult place than Spain regarding energy projects.

The problem in SPain is the same as in other parts of the world regading no "forwad thinking" regarding peak-transport but I wanted to point out that not everyone is as fuc*** as UK and other coutnires in similar situations) which may have problem in the electric grid without shrot-term solutions :)

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Wed May 21st, 2008 at 01:36:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
We are in a pretty pathetic position it's true, but I take a smidgeon (only a smidgeon mind) of comfort in the fact that we've been indulging in massively drawn out planning procedures for things like the London Array (an extra 45% on the construction cost due to planning delays thankyouverymuch). The UK currently has ~9GW of windpower projects stuck in planning hell and the very real prospect of a similar certifications quagmire for the proposed nuclear fleet.

If it gets to the stage of 3-day weeks and rolling power cuts, then I would expect such bureaucratic/administrative luxuries will be ditched quicker than a very quick thing. Of course if our governing classes had been a bit more clueful then we'd have avoided all the costs and inefficiencies of doing a crash build at the same time as world+dog - but you can't have everything.

Regards
Luke

-- #include witty_sig.h

by silburnl on Thu May 22nd, 2008 at 07:11:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
How far away is the UK from 3-day weeks and rolling blackouts?

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu May 22nd, 2008 at 07:25:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
not too far away, certainly within ten years without new capacity. I went to an excellent lecture about 18 months ago by the energy advisor to the scottish parliament and he laid it out simply, that the UK needs vast investment in energy plants to replace the many nuclear and coal plants being decommissioned over the coming decade.
by darrkespur on Thu May 22nd, 2008 at 07:57:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But that is 10 years of gradual demand increase and stepwise but not catastrophic supply decrease (by power plant attrition). It's not a shock on the scale or speed or the 1973 oil embargo or the mining/power  strikes in the UK in the 1970's.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu May 22nd, 2008 at 04:25:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
no it's definitely a boiling frog thing and governments are aware of it. No wonder there's the push for nuclear and new coal plants, they know they'll need a buffer in the interim.

I start my PHD in nanophysics this July, working on nanocrystalline diamond, which could be a really efficient converter of solar heat to electricity. My project will be trying to adapt the material to use in Condensed Thermal Solar plants, with any luck we'll be producing it within five years at much greater efficiencies than the steam ones used now. If we don't get there, someone will. The technologies are coming and it's beginning to get serious funding so hopefully any new plants in the short term will just be stopgaps.

by darrkespur on Fri May 23rd, 2008 at 07:01:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I thought the three-day work week and power cuts were related to the miners strikes and such things?
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Thu May 22nd, 2008 at 08:04:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
at the time of the three day week a particularly intrepid reporter went to the editor of the Daily Mirror and suggested that they hire a light aircraft, and fly over the power stations to take stereoscopic photos of the coal stockpiles and from calculating their size, see whether a three day week was truly necessary. he was told it wasn't necessary as the leader of the miners union had personally assured the editor that there was plenty of coal at the power stations. So he rang the editor of the Daily Telegraph suggesting the same scheme, only to be told it wasn't necessary as the editor had been personally rung by the prime minister and assured that there was definitely a severe coal shortage at the power stations.

Life should consist in at least fifty percent pure waste of time, and the rest doing what you please.
by ceebs (bunchofwankers (at) gmail (dot) com) on Thu May 22nd, 2008 at 09:24:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I am right in thinking that it was at best a second or third order effect of the oil shocks though? Inflation leading to industrial unrest?
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Thu May 22nd, 2008 at 09:48:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
from what I remember yes, although I remember it being said to show the necessity of reform, etc. etc. and has been used ever since as a stick to beat the unions with.

Life should consist in at least fifty percent pure waste of time, and the rest doing what you please.
by ceebs (bunchofwankers (at) gmail (dot) com) on Thu May 22nd, 2008 at 10:14:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The last time this happened inflation exploded, and we were all on a three day week with rolling power cuts trying to survive by candlelight. I don't see any evidence of better organisation this time around.

I don't see how that analogy holds at all. What unions are going to close down the power generation system in a sudden shock this time around?
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Thu May 22nd, 2008 at 09:53:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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