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Jerome a Paris:
We have a lot of experience of post-war economic cycles and you have to be profoundly gloomy to believe that this one will be outside the boundaries that these define. I would go further: you have to be profoundly gloomy to believe that the next few years will be as bad as the 1970s, in economic terms the most difficult of the post-war decades. Then there was double-digit inflation and a double-dip recession in most developed countries, followed in the 1980s by double-digit unemployment in many of them as inflation was slowly ground out of the system.
Hmmm, we're entering the seventh post-war decade, so all other things being equal it has a 14% chance of being the worst post-war decade, and a 28% chance of being at least as bad as the 1970s. Doesn't seem to me "profoundly gloomy". A 10% chance might make it "gloomy" but only a 5% or even a 1% chance qualifies as "profoundly gloomy".

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu May 22nd, 2008 at 01:07:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
He's not talking about the worst decade or not, he's talking about whether it will be worse or not than the 70s, which he describes as pretty bad. So he's saying it's unlikely to be as bad as that, and that being as bad as that would be pretty gloomy, which is correct.

I just disagree with the reality of the assertion, not that it is an incorrect one to make.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Thu May 22nd, 2008 at 05:02:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
When he says
you have to be profoundly gloomy to believe that the next few years will be as bad as the 1970s, in economic terms the most difficult of the post-war decades
I don't understand how you can read
He's not talking about the worst decade or not.
The worst (most difficult) decade is exactly what he's talking about.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu May 22nd, 2008 at 05:38:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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