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Now that markets are arbitraged, a dividend is equivalent to a stock buyback, since the company's valuation decreases by the dividends it gives, right ?

Auferre, trucidare, rapere, falsis nominibus imperium; atque, ubi solitudinem faciunt, pacem appellant.
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Thu May 22nd, 2008 at 12:27:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think you're right, in which case out the window goes "fundamental analysis".

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu May 22nd, 2008 at 12:43:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Prices are a social construct and like all social constructs are deeply influenced by PR...

Auferre, trucidare, rapere, falsis nominibus imperium; atque, ubi solitudinem faciunt, pacem appellant.
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Thu May 22nd, 2008 at 12:47:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Companies' assets decrease when dividends are paid by the amount of the dividend. And there is always a hiccup in pricing for a couple of days when a share goes from being "cum dividend" to "ex dividend".

But in the short, medium and long term the price reflects  investors' expectations of net income=profits, and whether or not this is paid out in dividends is not generally more than a tax issue.

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Thu May 22nd, 2008 at 01:35:42 PM EST
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