-There's rural China and city China, and they have little in common. Having said that, most of the GDP is in the cities so it looks like the economy really isn't all that oil-dependent (of course, it's coal-dependent). -It's not going to be a spike, but a prolonged shortage. So ability to adapt may be more telling in the long run than currency reserves. Besides, USA may simply print dollars as they are insanely accepted in most places. -China makes its money from exporting. If high fuel costs mean more local production in the near future (which I would hope, not because I'm against China but because I'd like my planet to stay livable), its economy may suffer from the change. -It's not just the level, it's the trajectory. Chinese people used not to drive, so the level of dependence may be shooting up. Which brings us to the last, and most important: -My understanding is that China is held together by the promise of fast growth. That it may be ably to ward away a recession based on economic fundamentals (highly likely) may not be enough to avoid a sharp slowdown of growth. Which may be enough to trigger major social unrests, especially since the country is speeding towards other resources problems, namely water and breathable air.
Now, I don't know enough to make an informed judgment on these factors, but I'm not sure that normal rules apply in China. Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi
The IEA data is in MToe (million tonnes of oil equivalent) and the international fossil carbon markets tends to be priced off oil regardless of whether it's coal, oil or gas that is being considered.
It's not going to be a spike, but a prolonged shortage. So ability to adapt may be more telling in the long run than currency reserves. Besides, USA may simply print dollars as they are insanely accepted in most places.
The range of imports to reserves is about one hundred from China to the US or Western Europe. That is, if it comes to that, China can buy itself 100 times more time with its currency reserves. And the amount of money the US would have to print to balance that would crash the dollar. Also, China has reserves or the order of its GDP (!) so it can be several years' worth of oil purchases (at current prices).
As for trends I'd need time-series data ($0.03 per data point to access the IEA database gives you an idea of the order of magnitude of the price of data), and for social cohesion I don't even know where to look... When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
Anyway, I'm sure they will be able to buy what they need. The question will be how all that plays out (if they use their reserves, they will no longer prop up the dollar, exchange rates will change a lot...). Still, it's clear that their huge reserves are an amazing cushion. Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi
They have not used a period of unprecedented prosperity to develop more articulated social structures as far as I can see. The rule of law and impartial justice are still pretty much new and foreign concepts. On what can they fall back? The "Little Red Book"? another "Great Flop Backwards"? It could get interesting. As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
