President Mubarak announced last week that civil servants would be getting a 30-percent pay raise to cope with rising food prices.  (Food prices, however, have doubled since January, so 30 percent still ain't cutting it....) Mubarak said in his May Day speech that the budget only had room for a 15 percent increase, but he had sternly instructed his cabinet to "find the resources" enough to pay for the 30 percent.  Mr. Benevolent.

Oh, did I mention that this was done three days before what was supposed to be a general strike over food prices and stagnant wages?  Yeah.

Well, the "strike" flopped on Sunday, and now (Monday) we find out how they propose to pay for it: by cutting fuel subsidies,, raising petrol and diesel prices at the pump.  Except that I'm positive that they wanted to cut the subsidies anyway, and the conveniently timed pay raise is just their excuse for doing so.  They're hoping that shrouding the subsidy cut in a pay raise will avert civil unrest.  (Egyptians don't like having their subsidies cut, and no wonder, given that 40 percent of the country lives on about $2 a day.)

But here's the thing -- the fuel subsidy is really irresponsible.  This is one of the most crowded, most terribly polluted cities on the planet, with some 18 million people and who-knows-how-many cars, probably half of them unroadworthy rattletraps that have been kicked off European roads and re-sold here.  Public transportation exists, but is a disaster.  (The buses literally terrify me.  The subway is great, but really crowded, and it doesn't go anywhere near most of the city.)

So really, Egypt should be encouraging people not to drive, but

And let's be clear what kind of fuel prices we're talking about:  this article (in Arabic) says at the new, higher prices, 95-octane will sell for 2.50 Egyptian pounds, 90 octane for 1.75 Egyptian pounds, and diesel for 1.10 Egyptian pounds.

That's 45 US cents a liter for 95 octane, 32 cents for 90, and 20 cents a liter for diesel.  (Multiply those numbers by four to get the approximate price in gallons.)  Please keep in mind that Egypt is not a major oil producer.  It has some natural gas, but not a lot of oil.  This ain't Kuwait.  (Although this time of year, in my neighborhood, you might not know that.)

This is a dilemma.  Cairo needs fewer vehicles on the streets, it just can't take any more.  Without the fuel subsidies, a lot of people won't be able to afford to drive, or at least drive as much.  But 18 million Egyptians have to get to work somehow, and the public transit system won't cut it.  (Also, the upper class people are terrible snobs, as anywhere, and won't be caught dead even taking a private black-and-white taxi, let alone a bus... and they're the ones least troubled by the fuel-price increase, so they'll still leave the driver sitting outside the coffee shop with the engine running and the A/C on while they're inside getting a latte and a biscotti... assholes.)

Sigh.