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Rough mathifying says C has a 60,000 lead which isn't insurmountable.

Of course, the goddamn voting machines have to be turned on.

by ATinNM on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 08:25:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Down to an eight-point lead, less than 60k votes.  Still nothing from NW Indiana, still waiting on Indianapolis and suburbs.

Not insurmountable.  Doubtful, but not impossible.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 08:41:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
63% reporting and C is still ahead by 50,000.
by ATinNM on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 08:58:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Down to 53-47%.  Gap closing.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:00:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sorry for my interjecting on a subject I know little about, but at what margin does Clinton's victory in Indiana look worthless? I mean, if she won it 52% to 48%, that's technically a rout, right?

Member of the Anti-Fabulousness League since 1987.
by Ephemera on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:04:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
On one level this is all meaningless since she'd have to win some two thirds of the remaining primary votes (including today's) to pass Obama. But in the fun horse(s@#$)race game we're playing here it's all about 'expectations'. That means that the campaigns both try to underplay their chances before the primary without making it sound like it's hopeless, and then spin the other direction once the results are in. Whichever is more successful at getting their narrative accepted by the media is the 'winner'.
by MarekNYC on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:09:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Which basically means that a large part of our election involves feeding the narcissism of the press.

Well said.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:17:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I actually wanted to know at what point I could go to bed, cause it's bloody late here. But still, the analysis is interesting. To me, this contest is an increasingly interesting, but increasingly surreal manifestation of democracy in action. I mean, people keep voting, but there never seems to be a result...

Member of the Anti-Fabulousness League since 1987.
by Ephemera on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:23:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Poblano over at Daily Kos pointed out that it's a "momentumless primary," which is really weird, but it sort of makes sense given the historic nature of each candidacy.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:26:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In that case at this point you can go to bed with the knowledge that Obama 'won' the expectations game tonight. In a sense this is no more fair than the Hillary 'win' in PA - i.e. we're basically getting what you'd expect from these two states given their respective demographics, but  it's the playing up of the PA 'triumph' that's boomeranging on Clinton. Given that she should have dropped out after the Ohio and Texas primaries and not spent all this time savaging the inevitable Dem nominee, I'm not too sympathetic anyways. Though the one silver lining is that the timing of the Wright affair was better than it would have been if it had come in September or October.
by MarekNYC on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:29:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Go to bed?

We've got the GAME on!

;-)

Slow motion to Denver, I'm afraid.  Clinton can't catch-up in pledged delegates and Obama can't put her away.  

IF O goes on to win in Indiana we may see a movement in PLEO delegates over the next few days.  

by ATinNM on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:34:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Car!

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:36:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Car?
by ATinNM on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 10:17:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You said "Game On!"  I thought the Wayne's World reference was obvious.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 10:18:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
OMG!  My secret it is out!

I may be the only person in the entire US who hasn't seen Wayne's World.

by ATinNM on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 11:05:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You're kidding?!  My God, man, it's awful, but you must see it.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 11:10:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A must see crappy movie.

Contain my anticipation.  :-)

by ATinNM on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 11:44:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Let's see, Celtics up at the half, Red Sox shutout the Tigers and Obama blew out HRC in NC. On the down side the  Yankees are leading by one in the seventh and HRC is up by four in Indiana.
by MarekNYC on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:39:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Lousy night for New Yorkers.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:52:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Not for New Yorkers born in Boston;) (aren't sports loyalties weird - I feel much more of a New Yorker than a Bostonian in everything except sports)
by MarekNYC on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:54:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh my.  How do you manage that being a Boston guy, sportswise?  I thought they could tar and feather you for that.

My sports loyalties are wholly a product of my dad, except in baseball (he has no team and I consider myself a lame Braves fan).

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 10:02:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I was out with friends for a bachelor party during game 4 of the ACLS that year the Sox came back from 0-3. Needing to check what was going on I stopped into a biker bar near the West Side highway. Cheered for my team, but all I got were a few evil looks mixed with a lot of faux sympathy. Might have been a bit different by game 7...
by MarekNYC on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 10:17:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I reckon they might've been none-too-pleased with you by game 7.  That was a hell of a series, wasn't it?  Again, not a baseball guy, but that was one I really got into.  The Sox were a thing to see that year.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 10:20:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ok, Celtics pulled out a sqeaker, Yankees lost in the eighth, Indiana...
by MarekNYC on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 11:00:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's allegedly going to be another hour before we get final word in Indiana.  Obama apparently stormed Gary, big turnout, which is why it's taking so long.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 11:06:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I wouldn't say a 4% difference was a rout, the 20% difference in north carolina looks much more a rout.

a 4% difference means that She only has an advantage of about three delegates from that state in closing the gap on Obama. Without a huge advantage it means that to get the number of deligates needed for her to have an advantage of delegates at the end of the primary process she now needs to get around 72% of the rest of the votes in the remaining states.(and this is a quick back of an envelope calculation so may be entirely inacurate)

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:19:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Pretty good math, if I remember correctly.

Man, I told DoDo never to bet money on the Zogster, and the little "fooker" may just get it right in Indiana.

SurveyUSA certainly got it wrong.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:24:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
52:48

Oh dear. Not even the rules of Clintonball make it possible to spin that as a double digit win.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:26:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Still nothing from Gary, and those Indy suburbs are still not reporting 55-65% of precincts.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:31:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Wow. Wikipedia says Gary's population is 85% African-American. That's incredible. Do you know how many eligible voters there are in the city?

Member of the Anti-Fabulousness League since 1987.
by Ephemera on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:36:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No idea.  The city's about 100,000 people.  I'd guess 55-65% are registered voters.  No clue what Lake County as a whole looks like.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:45:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, she is at a 4 point lead now, down from a 10 point lead in some predictions. How exciting!

Member of the Anti-Fabulousness League since 1987.
by Ephemera on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:26:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
previous to tonight it was about 68% of the remaining votes she needed, using the same suspect methods, so it's all getting very tight on her needing to give in. The Fat lady is at least clearing her throat, if she hasn't stepped out on the stage. Even her advisers must be starting to see the neon 'you lose' message flashing at the end of the game.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:33:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think the plan is to stage a coup with the Rules Committee (or whatever it's called) which will seat Florida etc and then crown her empress of the entire world.

The Committee is packed full of Clinton people. Unfortunately the rest of the convention will try to lynch them, so it's possibly not a bullet-proof strategy.

Even so - Clinton looks like she won't stop until someone forces her to. She doesn't care about the party, she doesn't care about the voters, she only cares about being empress of the entire world.

She's looking more and more like Bush, only without the affability.  

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:38:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Probably not going to matter.  I think enough supers would leave her to make up whatever nuclear strike she launched in the Rules Committee.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:42:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So it's the lynching of John Brown vs the incineration of Joan of Arc?

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:43:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Some strong Obama territory has yet to report any results while Clinton's territories seem to be mostly in.

Nail biting time at the Clinton HQ.

by ATinNM on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:05:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Indiana has just been switched from "Too Early to Call" to "Too Close to Call".  That means AP doesn't know where this is going for sure anymore.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:14:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Can we take from that voting patterns are significantly different from their model?
by ATinNM on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:18:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes.  That's exactly what it means.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:20:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think it's just everything is way inside their margins of error.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:20:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Right.  Essentially what they do is follow certain precincts that give them a model of the vote.  A pretty good one, too.  It's very odd that we might -- again, I think it's still doubtful in IN -- have two races in this primary called or nearly called, and then overturned.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:30:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm fairly convinced that Obama will loose in Indiana. looking at the county by county maps, I dont see there being enough votes out there for him to overturn her lead. Unless Lake has a much higher population than I assume.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:37:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
73% in an a little over 40k vote difference.  

Lake and La Porte counties still have 0% reporting.

If they go O as big as Marion county (Indianapolis) this is going to be a squeaker -- 6/5 and pick 'em.  

by ATinNM on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:39:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It was 44k at 73%.  74% now, down to 38,000.  Per Chuck Todd, O's people think they'll come up short by 10-15k.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:43:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
and that as far as Obamas people are concerned is almost as good as a victory.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:44:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Right.

What Clinton really needed out of this was evidence to say, "Hey, superdelegates, the Wright thing has severely damaged Obama.  He can't win, so choose me."  She didn't get that.  Indiana is, I believe, over 90% white.  It's a Rustbelt state.  Demographically, on everything but age, it's better for her than Penn and Ohio.  That's why I think you see -- or would see if you were watching American television -- the narrative shifting from "ZOMGTEHMADNEGRO!" to "Hillary's screwed."

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:50:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I was earlier, but pressure from SWMBO who I was waking through my absence pulled me to bed. feline appeals have pulled  me to the kitchen, and thence to the shocking discovery that one county means you stilll dont know.


Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 11:45:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Lake County (Gary) isn't coming in until 11PM.  They've brought in extra counters, so apparently turnout there was huge.  Clinton's got three small counties out in southern and eastern.  Her margin has ticked up to 36k with those last few rural counties in southern.

The last of it that should help Obama are Porter, Laporte and Lake counties.  Per Timmeh, we've got perhaps up to 300,000 votes left.

It may come down to Gary, Gary, Gary.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 10:08:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
OT sort of but I went over to No Quarter one of the main Clinton blogs for a bit of schadenfreude in the comment threads. Christ I wish I hadn't, I need a shower
by MarekNYC on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 10:11:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah, a lot of folks out there, especially in more obscure blogs (but sometimes on the biggies), are just hideous.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 10:13:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That goes for both Obama and Clinton people, in fairness, although some of the ex-Reps who've joined the DLC Wing of the party reveal their past a little too easily for me.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 10:14:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
They'd rather vote for McCain than Obama? No Quarter lost it's little mind some time ago, but that's just insane. Obama is most likely to run a standard issue relatively low-grade evil US foreign policy and as lefty an economic policy as you're going to get from any of the candidates, which isn't saying much. McCain????
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 03:54:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's silly season.  People are tired and frustrated.  Understandably, I think.  This has been a long primary.  But I think it was Jeff Toobin at CNN who pointed out that we saw a similar divide between Bush and McCain in 2000.  McCainiacs said they'd only vote for the Stray Cock Express.  Except they came around to vote for Junior.

Same thing will happen here.  Worst-case scenario is Obama winds up being forced to put her on the ticket, in which case Bubba goes on a very long vacation to a place where he can do whatever it is he does with his spare time.  And Hillary then gets to do a back and forth between Ohio and Florida for the next five months.

I think that's unlikely to be needed anyway, and that it should be avoided if at all possible given the much better choices for Veep, but the option is always there.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 08:00:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Scratch that.  83% precincts in.  Clinton's down to one rural county (Union).

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 10:11:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Back after dinner, sipping my expresso, waiting for the Robert E. Lee returns to come in.

"Gary Indiana, Gary Indiana, Gary Indiana
where the hell are the results
?"

by ATinNM on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 10:19:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
They can't turn their results in until Daley certifies them with enough dead people to get O over the top. ;)  Ask poemless.  She's the Chicagoan here.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 10:23:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You are a cynic & I'm wary of having anything to do with you!  ;-)

As for me, I'm just high on life & Murika; tripping lightly down the streets of Our Fair City with a smile on my lips and a song in my heart.

by ATinNM on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 10:28:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That's me.  Deeply cynical after all my years.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 10:36:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
elitist!
by MarekNYC on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 10:28:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Waiter!  Waiter!

Someone left the rift-raft in.  Kindly remove him if you please.

by ATinNM on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 10:30:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Back of the envelope calculation figures Obama has to take over 55% of the rest of the vote (assuming 300,000 left) to win it.
by ATinNM on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 10:24:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah.  Kos has it as him needing 57% out of Lake to win it.  Rest of it's going to Clinton, although there's really nothing more out there for her.

Doubtful, but not impossible.  He'll win in a walk in Gary, but Gary is only 1/3 of the county in terms of population.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 10:35:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The 38,772 separation is a tall order but still just doable.  It all depends on how the rest of the county votes as the population of Gary proper is about 102,000.
by ATinNM on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 10:41:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yep.  Actually, we still have 67% not in for Hendricks County, right next to Indianapolis.  Clinton leads 56-44 there, but that could change, too.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 10:52:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Apparently Gary went for Obama in one big way.  

Since AP hasn't called it, yet, this thing is still very, very close.

Be a whoot, nicht wahr, if after Clinton's little speech Obama pulls it out.

by ATinNM on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 11:02:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It'll be a salt on the wound if he pulled it out after she gave that speech.

Timmeh sez she's meeting with a group of superdelegates tomorrow or the next day.  Might be the "Come to Jesus" moment with Rendell, Corzine, et al., or something like it.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 11:09:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
My gut is telling me Clinton has blown her chances to win the presidency.  She should do well in the coming primaries but not, I think, well enough to overtake Obama's lead.  

But Obama can't put her away.  

As I've been saying since Super Tuesday, the PLEO delegates are the ones who will decide this thing.  So the big question is: Do they have the backbone to tell C she's done?  

by ATinNM on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 11:31:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't think they have any choice.  If they throw it to her, blacks bail, meaning the base of the coalition crumbles, and that'll be that in November.

Neither can win on pledged delegates.  Obama will get the majority of them on May 20th, it seems.  Even with the Florida and very silly Michigan stuff, he still wins.  I think the game's over.

So Mayor Clay of Gary basically just said it was going to be "something for the world to see."  Starting to think my Daley comment may not have been too far off.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 11:38:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
They say in Providence that when Buddy Cianci won back the mayor's office after his first sting in jail that he got a very good turnout from the graveyards on Federal Hill - given that Buddy's friends put some of them their it would stand to reason that they could control their votes.
by MarekNYC on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 11:45:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Holy shit.  Her lead just got cut in half going from 87% of precincts to 89%.

Gary, Indiana, Gary, Indiana, Gary Indiana

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 11:47:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Less than 20k  margin with 9% left to be counted.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 11:47:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Lake county with 28% in 75/25 Obama.

Holy freaking batstorm.

Still nothing from Union County, tho.

by ATinNM on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 11:51:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Union might be the difference.  Not many people there, but every vote counts, especially in this case.  If Obama takes 75% of Lake, he's probably going to win it.

My father just emailed.  Says he's got O needing 59% (I assume that's before Lake County based on when he sent it).  Thinks he'll get it.  We'll find out soon.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 11:55:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Doing a quick check on the CNN page:

Counties left to report

Hancock   3% left 60/40 Obama
Hamiliton 1% left 61/39 O
Marion  2% left 67/33 O
Monroe 33% left 66/34 O
Union 100% -----Should go Clinton
Lake 72% left  75/25 Obama

Damn.  He may pull it out.  

                       

by ATinNM on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 12:16:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Only 7,000 people live in Union.  This may well come down to thousands, or even hundreds, of votes, so it could matter.  But that's a pretty small county.  If there are 2,000 Dems there, I'll be amazed.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 12:19:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Add another 1,000 for GOP cross-over voters just to be pessimistic and give Clinton 3,000 votes for 1,000 Obama for a net gain of 2,000.  

That, I guess, would be the maximum.

Bet'cha it was the high percentage of voter turn-out in Gary that blew the models away.

by ATinNM on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 12:27:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Nah, it couldn't have simply been Gary that broke the models, because we didn't have numbers from Gary when it started turning in Obama's favor.  He seems to have done much better than expected in rural areas.  Some of them were the standard C 70-30 O, but others came in at more like 53-47.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 12:30:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
to be fair, kos is correct to point out that those old time political machines are also good at simply getting out the vote when they put their mind to it.
by MarekNYC on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 11:51:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes.  And that's why politicians fall all over themselves to court their favor.
by ATinNM on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 11:56:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Holy fucking shit: Turnout in Gary was somewhere between 85% and 95%.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 11:58:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ditto on the HFS, there good buddy.

That's .... unheard of.

by ATinNM on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 12:18:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That's just Kos's math.  I don't think he has it right.

If he does, something fishy's going on.  That, or black folks really showed up.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 12:20:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Apparently East Chicago which is next door to Gary also has a strong traditional party machine - except it's Latino and going for Clinton.
by MarekNYC on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 12:21:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Good point.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 12:26:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Live Indiana Primary election blog

The first totals from Lake County,
316 precincts out of 561 reporting.

Almost all of Gary and Merrillville and portion of Munster primarily make up these numbers, plus Lake Station, East Chicago:

Lake county
Democratic candidates
President of the
United States
Barack Obama 46,759
Hillary Clinton 25,100



Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 12:28:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
So the question is: has he peaked or will the rest of the county follow?

(Good Morning, ceebs :)

by ATinNM on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 12:34:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
well I did manage 2 hours sleep ;-)

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 12:35:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
and the gap is down to 16,000

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 12:39:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm afraid it's going to be no sleep for me.  I've got three hours before the alarm goes off.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 12:45:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
you wake up for work at 4?
by MarekNYC on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 12:51:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah.  3.30 usually.  It normally takes me a few cups of coffee and a few cigarettes to get moving, so I like to get up extra early.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 12:55:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Both you and Drew are young, vigorous, and full of it.

Vim & vinegar, I mean.  ;-)

(Anyone else having a hard time loading ET?)

by ATinNM on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 12:51:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Jesus.  Lake County, IN, come in please.  We need votes!

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 01:03:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Exciting, isn't it?

This is why I love elections.  The whole thing comes down to boots on the ground getting your people to the polls.

by ATinNM on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 01:11:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
or freezing your ass off and feeling bad for blanketing little old ladies with evening calls. Or at least that was my experience this year. Then again my guy got trounced.
by MarekNYC on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 01:12:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Clinton wins Indiana.  99% reporting.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 01:14:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That too is part of the game.
by ATinNM on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 01:17:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
99% clinton projected the winner.

About 21,000 difference.

by ATinNM on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 01:13:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Thank God.  And with that, gentlemen, I am off to grab a couple hours of sleep.  'Night.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 01:16:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Good Night Drew.  Marek, ceebs, & the rest of you I'm off to bed as well.
by ATinNM on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 01:20:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
No Stamina ;-)

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 01:44:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
you got em, it's over, she won. Over 20,000 with 99% counted.
by MarekNYC on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 01:14:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Clinton's lead cut to 16,609

Hold onto your hats

by ATinNM on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 12:36:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I didn't know that.  Thanks Marek
by ATinNM on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 12:29:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Here's where it really changes things tonight: As Chuck Todd pointed out, even if you toss Florida and Michigan in, Obama's still going to win the popular vote.  That argument -- the strongest one she had -- is now done.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 12:32:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah, he's definitely right.  I think that rescued Obama in Evansville.  Might be the margin if he wins.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 11:56:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There has to be a trigger to invoke a rush to Obama.  

If he wins IN tonight that could do it.

by ATinNM on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 11:48:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think the endgame, if he won IN, would be to let her win big in WV, then split May 20th, agree to a FL/MI compromise, and wrap it up.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 12:00:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
TPM is citing MSNBC as saying that Clinton just canceled all her morning show appearances.
by MarekNYC on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 12:09:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
And Russert just said, "We know who the Democratic nominee is going to be."

Clinton apparently loaned herself money at some point.  She's meeting with the superdelegates tomorrow.  Reflection time, I assume.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 12:13:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
95% in.  Margin down to less than 17,000.  He just made up 5,000 votes.  I think they come up just short.

Several thousand absentee from students and faculty in Bloomington apparently left to be counted.  O's supposed to take those 75-25.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 12:38:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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