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Sorry for my interjecting on a subject I know little about, but at what margin does Clinton's victory in Indiana look worthless? I mean, if she won it 52% to 48%, that's technically a rout, right?

Member of the Anti-Fabulousness League since 1987.
by Ephemera on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:04:52 PM EST
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On one level this is all meaningless since she'd have to win some two thirds of the remaining primary votes (including today's) to pass Obama. But in the fun horse(s@#$)race game we're playing here it's all about 'expectations'. That means that the campaigns both try to underplay their chances before the primary without making it sound like it's hopeless, and then spin the other direction once the results are in. Whichever is more successful at getting their narrative accepted by the media is the 'winner'.
by MarekNYC on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:09:26 PM EST
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Which basically means that a large part of our election involves feeding the narcissism of the press.

Well said.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:17:35 PM EST
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I actually wanted to know at what point I could go to bed, cause it's bloody late here. But still, the analysis is interesting. To me, this contest is an increasingly interesting, but increasingly surreal manifestation of democracy in action. I mean, people keep voting, but there never seems to be a result...

Member of the Anti-Fabulousness League since 1987.
by Ephemera on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:23:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Poblano over at Daily Kos pointed out that it's a "momentumless primary," which is really weird, but it sort of makes sense given the historic nature of each candidacy.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:26:46 PM EST
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In that case at this point you can go to bed with the knowledge that Obama 'won' the expectations game tonight. In a sense this is no more fair than the Hillary 'win' in PA - i.e. we're basically getting what you'd expect from these two states given their respective demographics, but  it's the playing up of the PA 'triumph' that's boomeranging on Clinton. Given that she should have dropped out after the Ohio and Texas primaries and not spent all this time savaging the inevitable Dem nominee, I'm not too sympathetic anyways. Though the one silver lining is that the timing of the Wright affair was better than it would have been if it had come in September or October.
by MarekNYC on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:29:37 PM EST
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Go to bed?

We've got the GAME on!

;-)

Slow motion to Denver, I'm afraid.  Clinton can't catch-up in pledged delegates and Obama can't put her away.  

IF O goes on to win in Indiana we may see a movement in PLEO delegates over the next few days.  

by ATinNM on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:34:10 PM EST
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Car!

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:36:20 PM EST
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Car?
by ATinNM on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 10:17:18 PM EST
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You said "Game On!"  I thought the Wayne's World reference was obvious.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 10:18:58 PM EST
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OMG!  My secret it is out!

I may be the only person in the entire US who hasn't seen Wayne's World.

by ATinNM on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 11:05:17 PM EST
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You're kidding?!  My God, man, it's awful, but you must see it.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 11:10:10 PM EST
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A must see crappy movie.

Contain my anticipation.  :-)

by ATinNM on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 11:44:42 PM EST
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Let's see, Celtics up at the half, Red Sox shutout the Tigers and Obama blew out HRC in NC. On the down side the  Yankees are leading by one in the seventh and HRC is up by four in Indiana.
by MarekNYC on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:39:49 PM EST
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Lousy night for New Yorkers.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:52:43 PM EST
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Not for New Yorkers born in Boston;) (aren't sports loyalties weird - I feel much more of a New Yorker than a Bostonian in everything except sports)
by MarekNYC on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:54:47 PM EST
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Oh my.  How do you manage that being a Boston guy, sportswise?  I thought they could tar and feather you for that.

My sports loyalties are wholly a product of my dad, except in baseball (he has no team and I consider myself a lame Braves fan).

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 10:02:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I was out with friends for a bachelor party during game 4 of the ACLS that year the Sox came back from 0-3. Needing to check what was going on I stopped into a biker bar near the West Side highway. Cheered for my team, but all I got were a few evil looks mixed with a lot of faux sympathy. Might have been a bit different by game 7...
by MarekNYC on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 10:17:10 PM EST
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I reckon they might've been none-too-pleased with you by game 7.  That was a hell of a series, wasn't it?  Again, not a baseball guy, but that was one I really got into.  The Sox were a thing to see that year.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 10:20:45 PM EST
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Ok, Celtics pulled out a sqeaker, Yankees lost in the eighth, Indiana...
by MarekNYC on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 11:00:34 PM EST
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It's allegedly going to be another hour before we get final word in Indiana.  Obama apparently stormed Gary, big turnout, which is why it's taking so long.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 11:06:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I wouldn't say a 4% difference was a rout, the 20% difference in north carolina looks much more a rout.

a 4% difference means that She only has an advantage of about three delegates from that state in closing the gap on Obama. Without a huge advantage it means that to get the number of deligates needed for her to have an advantage of delegates at the end of the primary process she now needs to get around 72% of the rest of the votes in the remaining states.(and this is a quick back of an envelope calculation so may be entirely inacurate)

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:19:42 PM EST
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Pretty good math, if I remember correctly.

Man, I told DoDo never to bet money on the Zogster, and the little "fooker" may just get it right in Indiana.

SurveyUSA certainly got it wrong.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:24:27 PM EST
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52:48

Oh dear. Not even the rules of Clintonball make it possible to spin that as a double digit win.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:26:53 PM EST
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Still nothing from Gary, and those Indy suburbs are still not reporting 55-65% of precincts.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:31:26 PM EST
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Wow. Wikipedia says Gary's population is 85% African-American. That's incredible. Do you know how many eligible voters there are in the city?

Member of the Anti-Fabulousness League since 1987.
by Ephemera on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:36:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No idea.  The city's about 100,000 people.  I'd guess 55-65% are registered voters.  No clue what Lake County as a whole looks like.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:45:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, she is at a 4 point lead now, down from a 10 point lead in some predictions. How exciting!

Member of the Anti-Fabulousness League since 1987.
by Ephemera on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:26:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
previous to tonight it was about 68% of the remaining votes she needed, using the same suspect methods, so it's all getting very tight on her needing to give in. The Fat lady is at least clearing her throat, if she hasn't stepped out on the stage. Even her advisers must be starting to see the neon 'you lose' message flashing at the end of the game.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:33:00 PM EST
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I think the plan is to stage a coup with the Rules Committee (or whatever it's called) which will seat Florida etc and then crown her empress of the entire world.

The Committee is packed full of Clinton people. Unfortunately the rest of the convention will try to lynch them, so it's possibly not a bullet-proof strategy.

Even so - Clinton looks like she won't stop until someone forces her to. She doesn't care about the party, she doesn't care about the voters, she only cares about being empress of the entire world.

She's looking more and more like Bush, only without the affability.  

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:38:17 PM EST
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Probably not going to matter.  I think enough supers would leave her to make up whatever nuclear strike she launched in the Rules Committee.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:42:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So it's the lynching of John Brown vs the incineration of Joan of Arc?

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:43:08 PM EST
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