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Back of the envelope calculation figures Obama has to take over 55% of the rest of the vote (assuming 300,000 left) to win it.
by ATinNM on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 10:24:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah.  Kos has it as him needing 57% out of Lake to win it.  Rest of it's going to Clinton, although there's really nothing more out there for her.

Doubtful, but not impossible.  He'll win in a walk in Gary, but Gary is only 1/3 of the county in terms of population.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 10:35:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The 38,772 separation is a tall order but still just doable.  It all depends on how the rest of the county votes as the population of Gary proper is about 102,000.
by ATinNM on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 10:41:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yep.  Actually, we still have 67% not in for Hendricks County, right next to Indianapolis.  Clinton leads 56-44 there, but that could change, too.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 10:52:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Apparently Gary went for Obama in one big way.  

Since AP hasn't called it, yet, this thing is still very, very close.

Be a whoot, nicht wahr, if after Clinton's little speech Obama pulls it out.

by ATinNM on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 11:02:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It'll be a salt on the wound if he pulled it out after she gave that speech.

Timmeh sez she's meeting with a group of superdelegates tomorrow or the next day.  Might be the "Come to Jesus" moment with Rendell, Corzine, et al., or something like it.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 11:09:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
My gut is telling me Clinton has blown her chances to win the presidency.  She should do well in the coming primaries but not, I think, well enough to overtake Obama's lead.  

But Obama can't put her away.  

As I've been saying since Super Tuesday, the PLEO delegates are the ones who will decide this thing.  So the big question is: Do they have the backbone to tell C she's done?  

by ATinNM on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 11:31:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't think they have any choice.  If they throw it to her, blacks bail, meaning the base of the coalition crumbles, and that'll be that in November.

Neither can win on pledged delegates.  Obama will get the majority of them on May 20th, it seems.  Even with the Florida and very silly Michigan stuff, he still wins.  I think the game's over.

So Mayor Clay of Gary basically just said it was going to be "something for the world to see."  Starting to think my Daley comment may not have been too far off.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 11:38:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
They say in Providence that when Buddy Cianci won back the mayor's office after his first sting in jail that he got a very good turnout from the graveyards on Federal Hill - given that Buddy's friends put some of them their it would stand to reason that they could control their votes.
by MarekNYC on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 11:45:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Holy shit.  Her lead just got cut in half going from 87% of precincts to 89%.

Gary, Indiana, Gary, Indiana, Gary Indiana

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 11:47:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Less than 20k  margin with 9% left to be counted.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 11:47:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Lake county with 28% in 75/25 Obama.

Holy freaking batstorm.

Still nothing from Union County, tho.

by ATinNM on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 11:51:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Union might be the difference.  Not many people there, but every vote counts, especially in this case.  If Obama takes 75% of Lake, he's probably going to win it.

My father just emailed.  Says he's got O needing 59% (I assume that's before Lake County based on when he sent it).  Thinks he'll get it.  We'll find out soon.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 11:55:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Doing a quick check on the CNN page:

Counties left to report

Hancock   3% left 60/40 Obama
Hamiliton 1% left 61/39 O
Marion  2% left 67/33 O
Monroe 33% left 66/34 O
Union 100% -----Should go Clinton
Lake 72% left  75/25 Obama

Damn.  He may pull it out.  

                       

by ATinNM on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 12:16:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Only 7,000 people live in Union.  This may well come down to thousands, or even hundreds, of votes, so it could matter.  But that's a pretty small county.  If there are 2,000 Dems there, I'll be amazed.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 12:19:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Add another 1,000 for GOP cross-over voters just to be pessimistic and give Clinton 3,000 votes for 1,000 Obama for a net gain of 2,000.  

That, I guess, would be the maximum.

Bet'cha it was the high percentage of voter turn-out in Gary that blew the models away.

by ATinNM on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 12:27:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Nah, it couldn't have simply been Gary that broke the models, because we didn't have numbers from Gary when it started turning in Obama's favor.  He seems to have done much better than expected in rural areas.  Some of them were the standard C 70-30 O, but others came in at more like 53-47.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 12:30:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
to be fair, kos is correct to point out that those old time political machines are also good at simply getting out the vote when they put their mind to it.
by MarekNYC on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 11:51:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes.  And that's why politicians fall all over themselves to court their favor.
by ATinNM on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 11:56:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Holy fucking shit: Turnout in Gary was somewhere between 85% and 95%.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 11:58:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ditto on the HFS, there good buddy.

That's .... unheard of.

by ATinNM on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 12:18:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That's just Kos's math.  I don't think he has it right.

If he does, something fishy's going on.  That, or black folks really showed up.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 12:20:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Apparently East Chicago which is next door to Gary also has a strong traditional party machine - except it's Latino and going for Clinton.
by MarekNYC on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 12:21:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Good point.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 12:26:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Live Indiana Primary election blog

The first totals from Lake County,
316 precincts out of 561 reporting.

Almost all of Gary and Merrillville and portion of Munster primarily make up these numbers, plus Lake Station, East Chicago:

Lake county
Democratic candidates
President of the
United States
Barack Obama 46,759
Hillary Clinton 25,100



Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 12:28:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
So the question is: has he peaked or will the rest of the county follow?

(Good Morning, ceebs :)

by ATinNM on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 12:34:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
well I did manage 2 hours sleep ;-)

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 12:35:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
and the gap is down to 16,000

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 12:39:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm afraid it's going to be no sleep for me.  I've got three hours before the alarm goes off.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 12:45:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
you wake up for work at 4?
by MarekNYC on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 12:51:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah.  3.30 usually.  It normally takes me a few cups of coffee and a few cigarettes to get moving, so I like to get up extra early.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 12:55:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Both you and Drew are young, vigorous, and full of it.

Vim & vinegar, I mean.  ;-)

(Anyone else having a hard time loading ET?)

by ATinNM on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 12:51:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Jesus.  Lake County, IN, come in please.  We need votes!

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 01:03:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Exciting, isn't it?

This is why I love elections.  The whole thing comes down to boots on the ground getting your people to the polls.

by ATinNM on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 01:11:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
or freezing your ass off and feeling bad for blanketing little old ladies with evening calls. Or at least that was my experience this year. Then again my guy got trounced.
by MarekNYC on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 01:12:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Clinton wins Indiana.  99% reporting.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 01:14:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That too is part of the game.
by ATinNM on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 01:17:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
99% clinton projected the winner.

About 21,000 difference.

by ATinNM on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 01:13:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Thank God.  And with that, gentlemen, I am off to grab a couple hours of sleep.  'Night.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 01:16:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Good Night Drew.  Marek, ceebs, & the rest of you I'm off to bed as well.
by ATinNM on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 01:20:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
No Stamina ;-)

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 01:44:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
you got em, it's over, she won. Over 20,000 with 99% counted.
by MarekNYC on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 01:14:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Clinton's lead cut to 16,609

Hold onto your hats

by ATinNM on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 12:36:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I didn't know that.  Thanks Marek
by ATinNM on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 12:29:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Here's where it really changes things tonight: As Chuck Todd pointed out, even if you toss Florida and Michigan in, Obama's still going to win the popular vote.  That argument -- the strongest one she had -- is now done.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 12:32:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah, he's definitely right.  I think that rescued Obama in Evansville.  Might be the margin if he wins.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 11:56:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There has to be a trigger to invoke a rush to Obama.  

If he wins IN tonight that could do it.

by ATinNM on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 11:48:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think the endgame, if he won IN, would be to let her win big in WV, then split May 20th, agree to a FL/MI compromise, and wrap it up.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 12:00:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
TPM is citing MSNBC as saying that Clinton just canceled all her morning show appearances.
by MarekNYC on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 12:09:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
And Russert just said, "We know who the Democratic nominee is going to be."

Clinton apparently loaned herself money at some point.  She's meeting with the superdelegates tomorrow.  Reflection time, I assume.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 12:13:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
95% in.  Margin down to less than 17,000.  He just made up 5,000 votes.  I think they come up just short.

Several thousand absentee from students and faculty in Bloomington apparently left to be counted.  O's supposed to take those 75-25.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 12:38:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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