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So how long do you think until this ever more underwhelming primary season leads to a conclusion?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 03:35:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Florida and Michigan won't be settled until the DNC meets on the 31st.  Unless someone sweeps both primaries today, it'll probably be June before anyone concedes.

"Pretending that you already know the answer when you don't is not actually very helpful." ~Migeru.
by poemless on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 03:40:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
JUNE!?!?!? Yawn... ÍI am beginning to think that I should prepare for Prez Saint John.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 03:45:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
June 4th, at the earliest, unless Obama pulls off a magical upset in Indiana tonight.  (Only one pollster -- Zogby -- has him in the lead.  Betting on Zogby...not wise, to put it nicely.)  When do I think it will end?  I wouldn't venture a guess.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 03:43:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
When did everyone got mad at Zogby? I missed something.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 03:47:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, he's kind of had his rear end kicked in every contest but Missouri, where he was the only one to call it for Obama (albeit by too wide a margin).  He did okay in Pennsylvania and a few others, but he hasn't consistently beaten other names like SUSA, and he's gotten a few big ones badly wrong.

He's usually a great pollster.  Did very well in 1996 and 2004 (not sure on 2000), at least in the general elections.  Maybe his track record in primaries is lousy but he does well in the generals.  (shrug)

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 03:51:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I just noticed in recent days that everyone hisses at Zogby polls across the US blogs, as do you and ATinNM.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 03:59:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah, I think the rest of the blogosphere is too hard on him, honestly.  I don't trust his polls if they don't jibe with SUSA or PPP, but he's not near as bad as the truly atrocious ones, like ARG (which you'll notice the Kossacks refer to as "ARRRRRGGGGGGGHHHHH").  ARG is very much deserving of its reputation.

The Zogster's alright.  Just don't put any money down on him.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 04:03:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Hiss?  (Looking up with mild surprise)  I don't hiss at them.  It's just that one has to be cautious when reporting their results as their Internet based polls are still having teething trouble.
by ATinNM on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 05:40:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
dKos seems to have fallen over.

Either it's a busy night at the big orange, or someone is having an off-moment in MySQL land.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 05:49:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Is working for me...

"Pretending that you already know the answer when you don't is not actually very helpful." ~Migeru.
by poemless on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 05:51:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's working alright for me, but it was screwed up on my iPhone before.  Back up for you?

Exit polls look like a mixed bag in Indiana.  Higher black turnout and lower rural white turnout than expected.  That may be magnified, too, since as I understand it Obama banked a lot of votes in early voting in his strong regions.  Indiana could be anything from an Obama win to a Clinton win.  I really can't read anything out of them.

North Carolina looks like it's going to come in roughly as I expected.

Clinton's support among southern blacks has been cut in half (O 91-6 Clinton).  Similar figure in Indiana, although O was already beyond the 90% mark in the North.

Economic questions don't tell us a lot so far.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 05:56:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It reappeared almost as soon as I posted that.

I think I'm well into primary fatigue here. I want it to be over, but the pattern so far is that it's going to drag on and on and on and no one is going to be a clear winner until someone from the top of the party tree takes out one of the candidates and (metaphorically) shoots them.

I don't expect an Obama win in Indiana because that would break the pattern and we'd actually have something like a clean finish.

But I'm expecting we'll still be here tomorrow. A few more delegates will have been shuffled around but nothing else will have changed.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 07:05:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Probably.  Looks like it's going to be something above a ten-point win for him in NC, and about a four-point win for her in IN.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 07:11:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
How can you estimate NC without the final exits?
by MarekNYC on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 07:20:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I had certain numbers in my head on what to look for in the exit polls.  Anything above 33% black turnout would mean a solid win, I think, because he was looking at 30-40+% of whites.  Black turnout today was 33%, and then you add the early voting in which they were 40%.

Might come in a little higher than I expected for him.

NC just got called for O as soon as the polls closed, so presumably he got over a 10-point lead.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 07:33:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Clinton seems to be winning Indiana on a combination of republican spoiler votes and a rump of racist white-male democrats.

That's not much of a base. But it's depressing how significant the racist vote still seems to be.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 08:29:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah, 20% said they were voting McCain in November, and they voted 87-12% for Clinton.  That's staggering.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 08:39:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The funny thing is, Clinton can't win the Presidency without the AA vote.  Bashing Obama is not winning hearts and minds.  
by ATinNM on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 08:41:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
True, but which part of 'batshit insane' isn't obvious yet?

Or she's going for 2012. Or it's what the lizard people told her to do.

Or whatever.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 08:43:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Wouldn't worry too much about the racists.  It's depressing, but ya gotta figure 10% of people are just stone-cold racist little shits anywhere you go.  They wouldn't vote for a Dem in November anyway, in all likelihood.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 08:46:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"it's what the lizard people told her to do"  ????

ROTFLMAO!

by ATinNM on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 08:48:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You're early.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 05:58:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Trying to finish a job when I found I lacked a $1.25 part.

Rather than throwing a hammer through the wall -- my immediate reaction -- I decided to come home to cool off for a bit.

by ATinNM on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 07:41:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sounds like a blast.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 07:42:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Considering the nearest place to purchase the part is 60 miles away .... yeah, fun of the highest order.

I found something that would work and put that in.

(This remodeling is getting to be a bore.)

by ATinNM on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 07:49:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What in particular are you remodeling at the moment?

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 08:13:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A new-to-us house.  

It's a modest 2 story adobe, approximately 4,200 square feet.  ;-)

We've palmed off sold everything else to a sucker discriminating buyer.  So this is the LAST house I'm going to remodel.  

by ATinNM on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 08:34:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
4200 sqft?!? Just how many people do you have living there?
by MarekNYC on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 08:37:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You don't understand.  We have this wisked cool thing called space out in the rest of America that isn't New York. ;)

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 08:44:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
BAH, wicked cool even.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 08:44:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
We have this wisked cool thing called space out in the rest of America

I thought it was us elitist espresso drinking urban folks who whisked our own cream rather than using Cool Whip.

by MarekNYC on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 08:46:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah, yeah, yeah.  You Yankees and your fancy confusing keyboards.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 08:48:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
At the present time the resident population is: Zero.

When done the projected population, including all out lying areas, is: Two.

(LOL)

The building is way more room than we require but we got the place for under $40,000 and ... what am I supposed to do?  Chop off the back half?

At least I took the number of bathrooms down from 6 and a half to a mere 3 and a half.

by ATinNM on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 08:46:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Heh.  You should just do as I do: Plead ignorance to handyman-ism!

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 08:39:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Unfortunately, the secret was revealed two decades ago.
by ATinNM on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 08:47:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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