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   My opinion is that feeding 9 billion people is possible, but only with industrial agriculture. I could try to argument this, but I am very bad at writing (long) articles and there are already some that have done much better than I could possibly manage. A start could be this very good article by Stuart Staniford at The Oil Drum.
   Regarding the local vs globalised agriculture I think there is no argument here. The food supply needs to be global, otherwise a period of bad weather in a local area could mean famine. Now this does not mean that we need automatically more free market, since that would imply more volatility than there is already, which is by definition bad for the security of supply.
by Deni on Thu May 8th, 2008 at 08:52:38 AM EST
... extent to which industrial, oil-fed agriculture can maintain its high per acre yields while increasing its extremely low per-BTU-input yields, when compared to a peasant with a hoe on a hectare or two in Africa.

IOW, industrial agriculture is going to struggle to maintain its output over the coming five decades, and for that will require new technologies to be developed that do not yet exist, while there is no such technological hurdles to clear for rapid and ongoing increases in productivity in African peasant agriculture over the next five decades.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Sat May 10th, 2008 at 08:54:49 AM EST
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