Display:
will demand greater support from Germany on the international stage, especially in Iraq

I think Spiegel is off base here. While predicting U.S. misactions in the Mid East cannot be underestimated, the practical options for Obama seem perhaps two:

  • Withdraw and let the chaos begin

  • Convince U.N. or, more likely, Middle Eastern peace-keepers to help with the transition and withdraw


Eight years of hype has set the mood. The Republican supporters of the war in Iraq are crying uncle now; the last support will evaporate in November.

Yes, this goes against bi-partisan U.S. foreign policy of long standing, but when you've failed so spectacularly, your options are reduced.

by afox (afox at rockgardener dott com) on Tue May 13th, 2008 at 07:15:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Would a withdrawal really lead to chaos? The factions seem to have been negotiating successfully without US oversight, and I don't see why that should end just because an invader has gone.

A withdrawal would lead to giving up any claim on oil or income from oil, which might lead to chaos in the US.

But that's a different issue.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue May 13th, 2008 at 09:01:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Thank you.  The parties who will control Iraq are already in place.  Muqtada_al-Sadr recently demonstrated his ability to not only raise an army to fight but also quell their offensive on his command.  The Iraqi factions have been working on their local credibility for the past two years as they realize the US will be leaving as soon as Bush is out of office.  

The "chaos" will not materialize.  Iraq as it stood previously will not survive as it never made much sense anyhow.  The real danger comes from the possible Turkish reaction to a new Kurdish state.  

Regardless, to imply that what is happening NOW in Iraq is not 'chaos' is laughable.  The truth is that people fear an islamic-based government taking over Iraq and the word "chaos" is used as a euphemism to that.  If we had a problem with that well we should have avoided deposing the secular government that was there before us.

Realistically the Iraqi's will not support a heavy-handed religious government, their society has been secular for far too long.  Muqtada_al-Sadr is not very religious for a "cleric," don't believe the hype.

by paving on Tue May 13th, 2008 at 04:00:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Display:
Login
. Make a new account
. Reset password
Recommended Diaries
Clipping the wings of a judge
by Migeru - Feb 10
47 comments

Sarkozy: Enemies Ahoy!
by afew - Feb 10
32 comments

Hunger March wins PR battle
by DoDo - Feb 9
3 comments

LQD: Unsustainable irrigation
by Melanchthon - Feb 9
1 comment

Romania: protests change government
by DoDo - Feb 8
6 comments

Murdoch - Outsourcing and Hubris
by ceebs - Feb 3
18 comments

Obama wins GOP Primaries (to date)
by Frank Schnittger - Feb 8
9 comments

Bristol Pound
by ChrisCook - Feb 7
14 comments

Recent Diaries
Sarkozy: Enemies Ahoy!
by afew - Feb 10
32 comments

Clipping the wings of a judge
by Migeru - Feb 10
47 comments

LQD: Unsustainable irrigation
by Melanchthon - Feb 9
1 comment

Hunger March wins PR battle
by DoDo - Feb 9
3 comments

Obama wins GOP Primaries (to date)
by Frank Schnittger - Feb 8
9 comments

Romania: protests change government
by DoDo - Feb 8
6 comments

Answers to the Renewable Energy Consultation
by Luis de Sousa - Feb 7

Bristol Pound
by ChrisCook - Feb 7
14 comments

The Imitation Of Germany
by afew - Feb 4
31 comments

Strange Fruit
by Frank Schnittger - Feb 4
14 comments

Murdoch - Outsourcing and Hubris
by ceebs - Feb 3
18 comments

Mismatch with the Natural Gas Market
by Luis de Sousa - Feb 3
22 comments

The Future of Economics
by ARGeezer - Feb 2
191 comments

Desert Island Discs - Helen's distortions
by Helen - Jan 31
48 comments

Gorila
by DoDo - Jan 29
14 comments

Rail News Blogging #7
by DoDo - Jan 29
15 comments

Obama's State Of The Union: LQD
by Crazy Horse - Jan 25
74 comments

Democracy Technology
by gmoke - Jan 24
1 comment

The Hydrogen dream
by Luis de Sousa - Jan 24
49 comments

ET Paris Meet-Up 2012 (2 UPDATE)
by afew - Jan 23
113 comments

More Diaries...
Occasional Series