A massive rescue operation yesterday struggled with heavy rain and aftershocks in the search for tens of thousands of people who remained missing following the devastating earthquake which struck central China on Monday.As President Wen Jiabao toured the disaster area to oversee rescue efforts, the authorities said the death toll had reached 12,000 people in Sichuan Province alone. In some towns, there were more people missing buried under collapsed homes, hospitals and schools than found alive, raising fears that the death toll could soon rise dramatically.In Mianyang 60 miles east of the epicentrre, 18,645 people remained buried under debris and survivors spent a second night sleeping outside in the rain, some under striped plastic sheeting strung between trees. The government ordered them not to return home, citing safety concerns, and posted security guards outside apartment complexes to keep people out. At least 4,800 people remained buried in Mianzhu, local authorities said.In Yingxiu, a town of 12,000 people, only 2,000 had been found alive, state television quoted He Biao, an official, as saying. "They could hear people under the debris calling for help, but no one could, because there were no professional rescue teams," he said.
A massive rescue operation yesterday struggled with heavy rain and aftershocks in the search for tens of thousands of people who remained missing following the devastating earthquake which struck central China on Monday.
As President Wen Jiabao toured the disaster area to oversee rescue efforts, the authorities said the death toll had reached 12,000 people in Sichuan Province alone. In some towns, there were more people missing buried under collapsed homes, hospitals and schools than found alive, raising fears that the death toll could soon rise dramatically.
In Mianyang 60 miles east of the epicentrre, 18,645 people remained buried under debris and survivors spent a second night sleeping outside in the rain, some under striped plastic sheeting strung between trees. The government ordered them not to return home, citing safety concerns, and posted security guards outside apartment complexes to keep people out. At least 4,800 people remained buried in Mianzhu, local authorities said.
In Yingxiu, a town of 12,000 people, only 2,000 had been found alive, state television quoted He Biao, an official, as saying. "They could hear people under the debris calling for help, but no one could, because there were no professional rescue teams," he said.
Broadband connections across the country are pulsing with rumours of "earthquake omens" involving toads or butterflies - all allegedly ignored by the authorities. Some even talk of a vast pre-Olympic conspiracy. One blogger from Shandong province, in eastern China, wrote that more than a month ago, he went to his local earthquake resesarch centre several times to report that his animals had been disturbed and restless. But, he wrote: "They not only ridiculed me, they accused me of making up stories." Other blogs link to Chinese newspaper reports of bizarre natural occurrences in the past few weeks. The Chutian Metropolis Daily reported that on April 26, 80,000 tonnes of water suddenly drained from a large pond in Enshi, Hubei province. The province shares a border with Chongqing Municipality, which was devastated by the earthquake on Monday.
Broadband connections across the country are pulsing with rumours of "earthquake omens" involving toads or butterflies - all allegedly ignored by the authorities. Some even talk of a vast pre-Olympic conspiracy.
One blogger from Shandong province, in eastern China, wrote that more than a month ago, he went to his local earthquake resesarch centre several times to report that his animals had been disturbed and restless.
But, he wrote: "They not only ridiculed me, they accused me of making up stories."
Other blogs link to Chinese newspaper reports of bizarre natural occurrences in the past few weeks.
The Chutian Metropolis Daily reported that on April 26, 80,000 tonnes of water suddenly drained from a large pond in Enshi, Hubei province. The province shares a border with Chongqing Municipality, which was devastated by the earthquake on Monday.
Earthquake prediction in ChinaChinese earthquake prediction research is largely based on unusual events before earthquakes, such as change of ground water levels, strange animal behavior and foreshocks. They successfully predicted the February 4, 1975 M7.3 Haicheng earthquake[4] and the China State Seismological Bureau ordered an evacuation of 1 million people the day before the earthquake, but failed to predict the July 28, 1976 M7.8 Tangshan earthquake.[5] This failure put Chinese earthquake prediction research in doubt for several years. Chinese research has now merged with Western research, but traditional techniques are still common. Another successful prediction of the November 29, 1999, M5.4 Gushan-Pianling Earthquake in Haicheng city and Xiuyan city, Liaoning Province, China was made a week before the earthquake. No fatalities or injuries were reported.[6]
Chinese earthquake prediction research is largely based on unusual events before earthquakes, such as change of ground water levels, strange animal behavior and foreshocks. They successfully predicted the February 4, 1975 M7.3 Haicheng earthquake[4] and the China State Seismological Bureau ordered an evacuation of 1 million people the day before the earthquake, but failed to predict the July 28, 1976 M7.8 Tangshan earthquake.[5] This failure put Chinese earthquake prediction research in doubt for several years.
Chinese research has now merged with Western research, but traditional techniques are still common. Another successful prediction of the November 29, 1999, M5.4 Gushan-Pianling Earthquake in Haicheng city and Xiuyan city, Liaoning Province, China was made a week before the earthquake. No fatalities or injuries were reported.[6]
China's state-controlled English language news channel CCTV9 has a Nightline-style news/interview program called Dialogue with the wiliest host-cum-slick CCP mouthpiece I've ever seen, Mr. Yang Rui. It is broadcast live everyday at 13:00, then rebroadcast at 19:30.
For this afternoon's program, someone really did not do their homework. While the whole point of the show was to dispel criticisms that the government smothered warning signals before the quake, they got an "expert" named Chen Yiwen of the "Committee of National Hazard Prediction" on the phone who probably was supposed to support host Yang Rui's talking points that earthquakes are difficult if not impossible to predict. Instead, he stuns Yang Rui (and me!) by lambasting the national seismology center for ignoring his findings, calling the seismological authorities incompetent and responsible for not relaying warnings about the earhthquake in advance.
Sure enough, it is now 19:58 as I write, and it looks like tonight's rebroadcast of Dialogue has been replaced by a special live broadcast. No doubt there will be no video of this episode posted on the CCTV website tomorrow either.
Shanghaiist has the following interesting tidbit that lends (a little) credibility to stories that the government was smothering warnings of an earthquake (scroll down to UPDATE 90, 2:18am):
UPDATE 90, 2:18am: As we expected, the notice we found on the Sichuan provincial government website of the Abeizhou Seismic Bureau (assuring residents the news of an impending earthquake were just rumours) that we told you about in Update 16 has been removed. We're not sure when this was removed exactly, but this probably won't be the last time we're hearing of the Abeizhou Seismic Bureau. Screenshot still available here for those of you that missed the earlier update.
As I type, they have another expert on explaining that earthquake prediction is in fact not possible, certainly not days in advance. A language is a dialect with an army and navy.
... China State Seismological Bureau ordered an evacuation of 1 million people the day before the earthquake, but failed to predict the July 28, 1976 M7.8 Tangshan earthquake.[5] This failure put Chinese earthquake prediction research in doubt for several years.
1976 Tangshan earthquake - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Many people in Tangshan reported seeing strange lights (the so-called earthquake light) the night before the earthquake[citation needed]. Well water in a village outside of Tangshan reportedly rose and fell three times the day before the earthquake. Gas began to spout out of a well in another village on July 12 and then increased on July 25 and July 26 (references needed). More than half a month before the earthquake struck, Wang Chengmin (汪成民) of the State Seismological Bureau (SSB) Analysis and Prediction Department had already concluded that the Tangshan region would be struck by a significant earthquake between July 22, 1976 to August 5, 1976.[1] Abnormal signals were mentioned for Beijing, Tianjin, Tangshan, Bohai and Zhangjiakou regions. Wang made an effort to publicize the information to 60 people. One of the people listening in was Qinglong official Wang Qingchun (王青春).[1] [edit] The prepared: Qinglong County After voicing the concerns to Wang Qingchun (王青春), his county took the report very seriously. Already some sources showed that the county had been preparing as much as two years earlier. [5] Up to 800 members of his county tried to respond.[1] Between July 25-26, 1976 each community of Qinglong county had emergency meetings to prepare and instruct villagers. Buildings were examined and water reservoirs were given special attention. The county secretary in charge, Ran Guangqi (冉广岐) decided to risk his political career and certain jail term to prepare the 470,000 residents of the county for the upcoming earthquake by ordering officials to educate the people as well as evacuate the local population to safer areas.[1] Twenty years later (in 1995), the United Nations concluded that the early warnings paid off, and that public administrators, scientists and citizens working together increased the survival rate. There was a huge difference between a prepared versus an unprepared county.[1]
Many people in Tangshan reported seeing strange lights (the so-called earthquake light) the night before the earthquake[citation needed]. Well water in a village outside of Tangshan reportedly rose and fell three times the day before the earthquake. Gas began to spout out of a well in another village on July 12 and then increased on July 25 and July 26 (references needed).
More than half a month before the earthquake struck, Wang Chengmin (汪成民) of the State Seismological Bureau (SSB) Analysis and Prediction Department had already concluded that the Tangshan region would be struck by a significant earthquake between July 22, 1976 to August 5, 1976.[1] Abnormal signals were mentioned for Beijing, Tianjin, Tangshan, Bohai and Zhangjiakou regions. Wang made an effort to publicize the information to 60 people. One of the people listening in was Qinglong official Wang Qingchun (王青春).[1]
[edit] The prepared: Qinglong County
After voicing the concerns to Wang Qingchun (王青春), his county took the report very seriously. Already some sources showed that the county had been preparing as much as two years earlier. [5] Up to 800 members of his county tried to respond.[1] Between July 25-26, 1976 each community of Qinglong county had emergency meetings to prepare and instruct villagers. Buildings were examined and water reservoirs were given special attention. The county secretary in charge, Ran Guangqi (冉广岐) decided to risk his political career and certain jail term to prepare the 470,000 residents of the county for the upcoming earthquake by ordering officials to educate the people as well as evacuate the local population to safer areas.[1]
Twenty years later (in 1995), the United Nations concluded that the early warnings paid off, and that public administrators, scientists and citizens working together increased the survival rate. There was a huge difference between a prepared versus an unprepared county.[1]
