When the economy and social structure of a society goes into a decline we usually see one of two outcomes: civil unrest or the imposition of an autocratic regime.

Yep and that is why I think things like Anglo Disease and peak oil are so... passé.

Yes, the analysis was correct, spot on, perfect. In fact is was so correct that we are now entering a period past that. The credit and energy binges are over (or at their end).

The question now is: as the shit is hitting the fan in front of our eyes, how do we answer that?

What will happen in "the west" where scarcity makes a comeback? We do have strong democracies, but we also have atomized, less organized grass roots than before. Furthermore people of my age and below were educated in a sort of self-centered, egotistic fashion ("you are consumers!", not friends, not members of a community, not even producers).

I am afraid that you are right: authoritarianism along with scapegoat finding (foreigners, immigrants, criminals - of the small fish kind) is the "standard" answer. Lots of space for typical ultra-right speech.

How can that be countered?

Of all forms of caution, caution in love is perhaps the most fatal to true happiness - Bertrand Russell