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Last week, there was some discussion on the German media over-hyping a 3-point drop for the SPD to just 20% in one poll, that of Forsa. Now today, newer polls of this and two more top institutions are out - each showing a different story: Forsa sees SPD level on 20%, Infratest dimap also sees the SPD level - but at 23% after a just 1% drop, while Forschungsgruppe Wahlen sees the party rising one point to 26% (after a two-point drop over a longer poll-less period).

This are the pure numbers. But one got the sense that Forsa's outlier was not merely a statistical outlier when Forsa's boss entered the political arena himself... and the SPD leader's circle hit back.

Ein Drittel der SPD-Mitglieder denkt an Austritt sueddeutsche.de One third of SPD members think of leaving the party sueddeutsche.de
Berlin/Dresden (dpa) - In der SPD hat nach einer Umfrage jedes dritte Mitglied (36 Prozent) in jüngster Zeit über einen Austritt nachgedacht. Sechs Prozent wollten tatsächlich in Kürze diesen Schritt vollziehen.Berlin /Dresden (dpa) - According to an opinion poll, every third member of the SPD (36 percent) has thought of leaving the party in recent times. Six percent wanted to actually take this step soon.
So hieß es in einer im Auftrag des Magazins «Stern» am Mittwoch veröffentlichten Erhebung des Forsa-Instituts. Derzeit hat die SPD rund 532 000 Mitglieder.That's what a survey by the Forsa institute on behalf of magazine Stern, released on Wednesday, said. Currently, the SPD has approximately 532,000 members.
Die SPD bezeichnete diese Ergebnisse als «völlig unbrauchbar», da Forsa-Chef Manfred Güllner keine Daten über SPD-Mitglieder für eine repräsentative Umfrage habe. «Statt Meinungsforschung betreibt Güllner durchschaubar Stimmungsmache», sagte Bundesgeschäftsführer Martin Gorholt. «Güllner führt einen Privatkrieg gegen die SPD. Seine Zahlen sind hochgradig unseriös», fügte er hinzu. Forsa gab an, 801 «repräsentativ ausgewählte Mitglieder» befragt zu haben.The SPD described these results as "totally unusable", because Forsa head Manfred Güllner has no data on SPD members for a representative survey. "Instead of opinion research, Güllner is transparently employing cheap propaganda", federal whip Martin Gorholt said. "Güllner leads a private war against the SPD. His figures are highly unserious", he added. Forsa stated that they asked 801 "representatively selected [party] members" for questioning.
Am Wochenende hatte Güllner, der selbst ein SPD-Parteibuch hat, zum Sturz von SPD-Chef Kurt Beck aufgerufen. «Beck muss weg», hatte Güllner in einem Interview verlangt und die Einsetzung eines «Notvorstands» unter Leitung des früheren SPD-Chefs Franz Müntefering vorgeschlagen. Beck sagte am Mittwoch zu Güllners Zahlen: «Meine Großmutter hat aus dem Kaffeesatz viel klügere Sachen erfahren als das.»At the weekend, Güllner, who has an SPD party book himself, called for the overthow of SPD head Kurt Beck. "Beck should go", Güllner demanded in an interview, and he proposed that an "emergency executive council" be instated under the leadership of former SPD chief Franz Muentefering. Beck said on Wednesday regarding Güllner's figures: "My grandmother learned much smarter things from coffee grounds than that."

I may ave missed it, but I don't remember a single instance of such brazen public, explicit political advocacy from a pollster in Germany. (Not that political ties would be unknown before - especially Allensbach, the onetime 'court pollster' for the CDU.)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 09:47:44 AM EST
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