Those with a vested interest in the status quo will use any argument they can muster to suggest this is just temporary.
Those with a vested interest in reform will use any argument they can muster to suggest this is a long-term situation and likely to get worse.
So when someone comes with facts in support of one or other position, how do you tell whether they have an axe to grind, or are being selective or falling prey to confirmation bias?
And when the two camps above hit upon suitable frames where their preferred policy conclusion follows more easily, you'll have a clash of frames and no debate will be possible. When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
A vested interest in survival, surely?
It's not story-telling - it's the difference between people who can do rational planning, and people who don't see why they should have to.
An efficient new car and/or a move will typically cost thousands, so there isn't a huge amount of elasticity there. Assuming people can do the numbers, the pain has to be severe before they're forced to change. Also a lot of oil goes to industry, which is even less flexible.
So I'm not expecting prices to decrease. It's going to be months before demand reduction in the West has an effect on price, and it's not clear that China and India won't make up the slack regardless.
People are getting tunnel vision.
BEIJING, April 29 (Xinhua) -- Soaring oil prices have not slowed China's consumption of oil as statistics show that China's apparent consumption of crude oil and refined oil products both hit record highs in the first quarter of the year. According to statistics released Tuesday by the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association (CPCIA), China's apparent consumption of oil products composed of gasoline, diesel and kerosene rose by 16.5 percent year on year to 52.73 million tonnes in the first three months, and crude oil, rose by eight percent to91.8 million tonnes. The "apparent consumption" represents the sum of net imports and output and could be taken as an index for the real oil consumption excluding inventory. The growth of oil products consumption was a record high and much higher than the same period of last year, which was only 3.6 percent, said Shu Zhaoxia, professor of the Economics and Development Research Institute of China Petrochemical Corporation (Sinopec Group). Sinopec Group is China's top oil refiner. The growth of crude oil consumption was 2.5 percentage points higher than a year ago. State ceilings on prices of domestic oil products was the major reason contributing to China's surging oil consumption in the first quarter.
BEIJING, April 29 (Xinhua) -- Soaring oil prices have not slowed China's consumption of oil as statistics show that China's apparent consumption of crude oil and refined oil products both hit record highs in the first quarter of the year.
According to statistics released Tuesday by the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association (CPCIA), China's apparent consumption of oil products composed of gasoline, diesel and kerosene rose by 16.5 percent year on year to 52.73 million tonnes in the first three months, and crude oil, rose by eight percent to91.8 million tonnes.
The "apparent consumption" represents the sum of net imports and output and could be taken as an index for the real oil consumption excluding inventory.
The growth of oil products consumption was a record high and much higher than the same period of last year, which was only 3.6 percent, said Shu Zhaoxia, professor of the Economics and Development Research Institute of China Petrochemical Corporation (Sinopec Group). Sinopec Group is China's top oil refiner.
The growth of crude oil consumption was 2.5 percentage points higher than a year ago.
State ceilings on prices of domestic oil products was the major reason contributing to China's surging oil consumption in the first quarter.
In the previous energy crises in the U.S., the problem was not one of high prices but of unavailability. It didn't matter how much money you had, there simply wasn't any gas at the gas station.
In that case, the cost of a newer car is irrelevant.
Price controls-> shortages.
There were no price controls during the second oil crisis in 1979, and there were no shortages either. Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
But then again, absence of price controls creates by-wealth rationing.
- Jake If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.
So you'll get a milder form of by-wealth rationing - one in which the people who are flat out of luck are at least compensated for their being flat out of luck.
Did I miss anything?
After all, no citizen has an innate claim to more of the stuff than any other, given that it's all imported and thus heavilty dependent on public infrastructure and institutions to be available to us... In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
Fairness we get through the progressiveness of the income tax system. Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
By the time the price is ready to go down by 75%, the decline in world oil production or the increase in demand from developing countries will have picked up the slack. When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
This situation is so past linear. When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
You can have a decline in GDP without large swathes of the population falling into poverty, but it takes a massively interventionist economic policy on the part of everyone. When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
Insight: Oil will move higher The declining dollar, the rhetoric of energy independence, increased energy consumption in oil producing countries, and power shortages in the Gulf States that are enouraging "private generation" are key factors that will push oil prices to new records. Add political instability in some oil producing countries, natural disasters, and technical difficulties around the world, and we are looking at an energy crisis in full bloom, with no end in sight.
The declining dollar, the rhetoric of energy independence, increased energy consumption in oil producing countries, and power shortages in the Gulf States that are enouraging "private generation" are key factors that will push oil prices to new records. Add political instability in some oil producing countries, natural disasters, and technical difficulties around the world, and we are looking at an energy crisis in full bloom, with no end in sight.
This is more than a small quote, but it's very noteworthy:
Dollar devaluation reduces oil supplies and increases the demand for oil. The result is a steady increase in oil prices. A prolonged decline in the dollar reduces the purchasing power of oil producing countries and increases the costs of international oil companies. As a result, the amount of money allocated for reinvestment in oil production declines. A decline in the dollar increases the demand for oil in countries with appreciating currencies and reduces the negative impact of rising oil prices on their economies. ■ Most Republicans in the US link oil to terrorism and call for energy independence. Democrats link oil to global warming and call for energy independence. Others link oil to dictatorship and call for energy independence. The oil-producing countries would have ignored this silly rhetoric had it not led to billions of dollars in research grants and direct subsidies for corn ethanol, soy biodiesel, and other energy sources. The explicit intent of these policies is to replace oil, the life blood of these countries. Thus oil producing countries take the rhetoric of energy independence seriously. They are redirecting investment from the oil industry to energy intensive industries and other projects to export oil embedded in various industrial products. The effect is clear: slow expansion in oil production capacity and an increase in domestic energy consumption. Inevitably oil and gas exports will decline and world oil prices will increase. ■ Energy consumption in the Gulf region has exceeded all expectations. This massive and unpredicted growth has led to energy shortages. Almost all of the natural gas in most of the oil producing countries, including gas from unfinished projects, has been allocated to petrochemicals, production of electricity for local consumption, and various industrial uses. Since fuel oil supplies are also limited, u*se of crude oil in power generation has become an objective of policy makers* who decided to subsidise heavy oil to make it competitive with natural gas in power generation. This trend means that the use of crude oil will increase over time. This increase will be at the expense of excess capacity and exports.
■ Most Republicans in the US link oil to terrorism and call for energy independence. Democrats link oil to global warming and call for energy independence. Others link oil to dictatorship and call for energy independence.
The oil-producing countries would have ignored this silly rhetoric had it not led to billions of dollars in research grants and direct subsidies for corn ethanol, soy biodiesel, and other energy sources. The explicit intent of these policies is to replace oil, the life blood of these countries. Thus oil producing countries take the rhetoric of energy independence seriously. They are redirecting investment from the oil industry to energy intensive industries and other projects to export oil embedded in various industrial products. The effect is clear: slow expansion in oil production capacity and an increase in domestic energy consumption. Inevitably oil and gas exports will decline and world oil prices will increase.
■ Energy consumption in the Gulf region has exceeded all expectations. This massive and unpredicted growth has led to energy shortages. Almost all of the natural gas in most of the oil producing countries, including gas from unfinished projects, has been allocated to petrochemicals, production of electricity for local consumption, and various industrial uses. Since fuel oil supplies are also limited, u*se of crude oil in power generation has become an objective of policy makers* who decided to subsidise heavy oil to make it competitive with natural gas in power generation. This trend means that the use of crude oil will increase over time. This increase will be at the expense of excess capacity and exports.
Thus oil producing countries take the rhetoric of energy independence seriously. They are redirecting investment from the oil industry to energy intensive industries and other projects to export oil embedded in various industrial products.
