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When the casual speculators are getting burned for underestimating the price, it's unlikely their kind of speculation is important.

That doesn't mean that they're not pushing up the price, does it?

I'm agnostic about what types of speculation are driving things, but lets not pretend that this is all just about simple demand and supply.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Thu Jun 12th, 2008 at 04:59:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

lets not pretend that this is all just about simple demand and supply.

On whose side should the burden of proof be?

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Thu Jun 12th, 2008 at 02:54:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well you're claiming that the financial crowd have suddenly decided not to create a speculative bubble in circumstances where it appears possible to make a profit ...
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Thu Jun 12th, 2008 at 03:06:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
On the one hand, after a couple of years of a trend, you would expect speculators to create a bubble.

On the other hand, Jerome rightly points out that on more than one occasion a rally has been caused by speculators rushing out of big bets that the price will go down.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jun 12th, 2008 at 03:20:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
is happening when people think the price will go up because it is going up and people buy only because of that - ie the price increase is the core story.

This is definitely not what is happening with oil and commodities.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Thu Jun 12th, 2008 at 04:00:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Are they not closing short positions?

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jun 12th, 2008 at 03:36:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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