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Myth number two is that the world is running out of hydrocarbons. Not so. The world has ample resources, with more than 40 years of proven oil reserves, 60 years of natural gas and 130 years of coal. The problems in bringing on new production are not so much below ground as above it, and not geological but political.
At 3% year-on-year growth in consumption, 40 years of oil at current consumption is gone in 27 years, 60 years of gas is gone in 35 years, and 130 years of coal is gone in 54 years. And that's not counting the fact that once oil is gone, gas and coal will have to pick up the slack and so will be depleted faster.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Jun 11th, 2008 at 02:31:49 PM EST
Myth number three is that we can switch quickly to a low-carbon economy.
If we have to switch to a low-carbon economy inside 27 years, we'd better get cracking.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Jun 11th, 2008 at 02:33:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sure, coal is growing fast, but that's because policies push that way, and because policies that would make things different are dismissed and/or fought tooth and nail by industry.
And the faster coal comes back the less than 54 years (not 130!) the reserves will last.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Jun 11th, 2008 at 02:34:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And all coal reserve numbers have been described as highly suspicious in a number of recent studies which have been discussed here but have not made it into the BP report...

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Wed Jun 11th, 2008 at 03:37:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Actually, the number I remembered is 200 years, so I thought BP was being conservative.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Jun 11th, 2008 at 04:17:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
200 years is for the USA alone.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Wed Jun 11th, 2008 at 05:47:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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