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My experience of negotiation leads me to think that you could address every single grievance with specific measures - and then they would come up with a new set of problems.  The problem is that although they claimed to want to negotiate a better deal for Ireland, they really wanted no deal at all.

"It's a mystery to me - the game commences, For the usual fee - plus expenses, Confidential information - it's in my diary..."
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 01:35:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's still worth trying, though.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 01:40:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, but you're not negotiating with the advocacy groups, you're trying to convince the voters.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 01:50:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Exactly. And most of the demands are actually harmless to "address".


When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 01:53:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If you want to convince voters you will have to come up a much simpler document that people feel they can understand.  You will also have to explain to them:

  1. what's in it for them
  2. What's in it for Ireland
  3. What's in it for Europe
  4. What's in it for the World

finally we will have to explain to them that the Murdoch/Ganly/McEvaddy media machines have a very different agenda to what is in their own best interest.

"It's a mystery to me - the game commences, For the usual fee - plus expenses, Confidential information - it's in my diary..."
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 01:57:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No, you just have to come up with amendments that address their stated concerns.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 03:45:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Keeping a commissioner for each country is one of their few concerns which actually relates to the Treaty and which might not create a huge problem for other states if the Treaty was changed to allow this.  Can you think of others?

"It's a mystery to me - the game commences, For the usual fee - plus expenses, Confidential information - it's in my diary..."
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 08:52:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, apparently there is some language in the treaty (as pointed out by irishhead) committing the member states to increasing their military capacity. Offer Ireland an opt-out.

The other issues are not in the treaty but could be:

  • To address the concern about the loss of jobs and the foreign workers: stronger language about "full employment" in the introductory part of the treaty
  • To address the concern about militarism: an opt-out from the defence component of the Common Foreign and Security Policy. If this means that the Irish Minister of Defence has to sit out all Council meetings, so be it.
  • Fuel prices: language about energy independence.
  • Democracy and Accountability: make the votes in the Council (if not the deliberation) public, by treaty. Also, it would be good if the EP published that damn report on expense account irregularities of MEPs.
  • Politicians haven't read the treaty: have the government publish an annotated version.
  • Treaty drafted abstrusively: annotated version.
  • Corporate taxation: [while I find that working class people are shooting themselves in the foot by opposing this] offer an opt-out if a clause from any EU fiscal policy: if this means Ireland's finance minister sits out ECOFIN meetings, so be it.
  • EU regulation of farming: offer an opt-out from the CAP.


When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Jun 14th, 2008 at 03:31:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
the last one. How do you opt out of the one fully integrated policy (and that was already integrated when Ireland joined)? Out of the rules? Out of the payment mechanisms?

And it's a huge can of worms.

The rest sounds like sensible ideas.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Jun 15th, 2008 at 05:42:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The last one is bollocks: most Irish farmers would starve to death without CAP.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Sun Jun 15th, 2008 at 06:07:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The first one is bollocks, too: Ireland has been a nation of emigrants until 15 years ago. That's a perfect example of "I got mine, fuck you".

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 15th, 2008 at 07:50:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Do. not. get. me. started. Really.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Sun Jun 15th, 2008 at 07:53:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The last few months have seen a huge and very sudden rise in unemployment due mainly to the collapse in the building industry.  This means that a lot of young working class guys with few qualifications for work outside building have suddenly gone from earning very good money to suddenly having very little to live on.  Those that have families and mortgages are screwed.  Those that got used to a high living, heavy drinking lifestyle are suffering withdrawals.  There is little culture of saving and investment for a rainy day because these guys didn't know life before the Celtic tiger.

So far the downturn has hardly effected middle class families at all - unless they are running their own business - so life goes on as normal for the majority and the political establishment just continues playing its usual games as if nothing is happening.  Some of the no vote, at least, was a protest vote against this disconnect.

The problem is that this problem will get a lot worse in the next few months, and unless the Cowen Government does something pretty dramatic about it, the level of anger and protest can only get worse.  I am hoping it doesn't develop into full blown racist xenophobia directed at the huge recent immigrant population living here and am relieved that so far, it hasn't.  However the Celtic Tiger cubs are growing up and now want to command their own prides, and some pretty nasty infighting could occur when there aren't enough jobs to go around.

Giving them history lessons on how the Irish, too, are a nation of emigrants isn't really going to help much - especially when those lessons are being given by the middle classes still sitting on record levels of income.

"It's a mystery to me - the game commences, For the usual fee - plus expenses, Confidential information - it's in my diary..."

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Sun Jun 15th, 2008 at 08:36:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Doesn't Ireland need any new railroads or other public infrastructure that the government could hire some of that unused construction manpower to build.

After all, if they are unemployed, then it means that nobody is benefiting from their skills.

(Cue Mig pulling out a Keynes quote :-P)

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun Jun 15th, 2008 at 06:49:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Of course, if the Irish Government doesn't do this it's the fault of the Lisbon Treaty.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 15th, 2008 at 07:04:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In fairness the Irish Government has embarked on a huge multi-billion infrastructural development programme which will absorb a lot of the slack from the collapse of the private housing market.  

There have been some noises from Cowen to the effect that this may have to be scaled back because of a sharp downturn in tax revenues, but if ever there was a time and reason to hold your nerve and increase borrowing to fund a large infrastructural programme well this is it.

I can see the Unions pressing hard for this as part of the current social partnership talks - but they may have to pay in terms of pay moderation in order to get it.  

The other plus side of doing it now is that there has been huge price inflation in infrastructural projects because of the tight labour market (in the past) and - well - infrastructural bottlenecks.  So it should be possible to get a lot more done for the same money now that might have been possible a couple of years ago.

Huge money has been spent on infrastructure, health etc. - tripling expenditures of c. 10 years ago - the problem has been getting value for money for the invstment spent.  (Our metros cost many multiples per KM more than e.g. Madrid spent for comparable investment).  A lot of this is down to to inflation at a time of huge growth, but even more to very poor project management and decision making capabilities within the public service.  

For instance the M50 ring road motorway around Dublin handed even been completed when they had to start upgrading it from 4 lanes to 6 for multiples of the original cost.  Now they are going to spend hundreds of millions on an electronic tolling system when a few cent on the price of petrol would bring in the same extra revenue for zero incremental collection cost.

Every private sector company I know rubs its hands at the prospect of a public contract.  The initial tender price may have to be low - but the spec is always changed and then they can charge what they like.  100's of lawyers have become multi-millionaires from the Tribunals alone - work that in England would have been done by a judge and a couple of barristers in a matter of weeks.

The waste is spectacular and yet it is almost impossible to even raise the issue of poor management.  (The Irish Times has never published a letter of mine criticizing any aspect of the management of public projects/services).  This is why I am sometimes at odds with Jerome's paeans of praise to the French public service - if only some real accountability and management disciplines applied in Ireland.


"It's a mystery to me - the game commences, For the usual fee - plus expenses, Confidential information - it's in my diary..."

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Sun Jun 15th, 2008 at 07:41:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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