Display:
Reasons being given by NO voters for there vote include:

  1. Concern about jobs because of slump in building industry - and foreign workers taking them

  2. Concern that Irish people might be conscripted into a European Army

  3. Anger at government inaction at high fuel prices

  4. Loss of Commissioner and relative voting weight within EU

  5. Generalised concerned at a lack of democracy and accountability within the EU

  6. Anger at the fact that both Taoiseach Brian Cowen, and Commissioner Charlie McCreavey had admitted to not having read the Treaty

  7. Concern at a variety of comments by European leaders that the Treaty text had deliberately been drafted as abstrusely as possible.

  8. Harmonization of corporate taxation - was not as big an issue in predominately working class areas which voted NO by large majorities.

  9. Anger amongst farmers at extremely intrusive EU regulation

---------------

YES campaigners are blaming:

  1. The electoral commission for being too slow and conservative in explaining the Treaty provisions.  

  2. Scurrilous publications written by religious extremists and widely distributed at Catholic Church entrances - even though the Catholic Bishops distanced themselves from some of these.

  3. The very slow start to the YES campaign - interrupted by a lengthy interregnum between Ahern and Cowen.

  4.  Anybody and everybody except themselves


"It's a mystery to me - the game commences, For the usual fee - plus expenses, Confidential information - it's in my diary..."
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 06:28:41 AM EST
Which of those reasons for a No vote actually have anything to do with the Treaty?
 
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 06:35:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Isn't it funny. One country gets to vote on this and it goes down.

A lot of UK and european politicians have been on the radio here in the last while and this is the main point they keep making. If other states had referendums they too, like the french and dutch votes on the constitution, would vote against it.

They are still as I speak (I mean presenters on national broadcaster) shouting down no campaigners who point that out.

As for commenteer above who is saying that the media were biased towards a NO. That's a joke really. It was the exact opposite.

I was always against Nice and Lisbon because they are at least partially about forcing europewide competition in ancillary health and education services. All oppositional left groups campaigned on this basis.

by irishhead on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 06:42:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
irishhead:
As for commenteer above who is saying that the media were biased towards a NO. That's a joke really. It was the exact opposite.
I believe the Irish Times took no as its editorial position and would not publish pro-treaty op-eds.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 06:46:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Sunday Times. Irish Times was pro, I think, but is a minority paper read mostly by the sort of people who are going to vote Yes anyway.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 06:48:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The Irish Times was Pro-Treaty
Some details here:
http://www.indymedia.ie/article/87884

Hope they don't make us vote on it again like they did on Nice.

by irishhead on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 06:50:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I assume there are matching articles complaining about the Irish editions of the British papers campaigning for a No?
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 06:53:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't know about that. I'll look. But the left No campaigners were highly critical of those groups, LIBERTAS in particular, who were campaigning from a right perspective and had no problem questioning their motivations. It was not a case of my enemy's enemy is my friend.

This is interesting on that front: About the possibility that this was a colour revolution job: http://www.indymedia.ie/article/87311

by irishhead on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 06:59:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I did a couple of stories on the astroturfing as well.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 07:03:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Looks a very comprehensive piece on Libertas - I'll read it when I get a moment - the Irish Times refused to publish letters linking Ganly to the US security/defence establishment from myself and Colman

"It's a mystery to me - the game commences, For the usual fee - plus expenses, Confidential information - it's in my diary..."
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 07:11:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Though they did do a piece later on about it.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 07:13:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Any chance of getting that sort of indymedia content cross-posted here?

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 07:42:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Better to link to it when it's interesting. Most of the Indymedia stuff isn't, as far as I'm concerned.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 07:43:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
What, they're too strident and we're serious people?

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 07:56:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yup, that's just what I meant.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 08:05:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'll make a point in future of posting summaries and links to the best indymedia ireland material with european relevance in future in the daily threads. Used to do some crossposting of stuff from there to here about the Shell/Statoil situation in Mayo and Hill of Tara issue.

Indymedia overall is a great resource for seeing what left campaigners are doing on the ground. There are sites in most European countries and they are very strong in south-america.

by irishhead on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 08:16:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You can do that in the daily Salon, in the Open Thread, or write a diary around quotes.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 08:23:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That's a very good article, but I would say that, wouldn't I, being French.

Indymedia Ireland: Libertas: US Military Contractors Against Lisbon!

Firstly, from the above, it is clear that they do not hold the positions that Libertas has raised against Lisbon. They simply aren't pacifist, pro-lifer, fundamentalist democrats. It is also clear, from their willingness to use scaremongering about abortion and tax harmonisation, that they are trying to maximise the No vote and don't really care on what basis people reject the treaty. The use of arguments that are directly contradictory to one another is convincing evidence of this.

So, why are they trying to defeat Lisbon? Given their intimate relationship with the US intelligence and military community, it is reasonable to ask whether this might provide any clues to their underlying motives. And it proves to be a fairly fruitful avenue of enquiry. In order to properly understand the context, we must briefly touch upon the major strategic divide amongst the world's business and political elite on matters European.

To put it simply, there are two visions of European integration amongst the Western elite. One of them sees the EU as a common market, lacking any real political component beyond whatever is needed to keep the wheels of competition well-oiled and lacking any capacity for autonomous strategic action. The other vision is of a European super-state, with sovereignty over the member states and the ability to take collective and coherent military and strategic actions on the global stage.



When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 08:08:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Migeru:
That's a very good article, but I would say that, wouldn't I, being French.

A Spaniard living in Britain who wants to be French?  So what have you got against being Irish?

"It's a mystery to me - the game commences, For the usual fee - plus expenses, Confidential information - it's in my diary..."

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 08:25:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't want to be French, but those people on Atlantic Review think I am :-P

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 08:27:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
French is the new communism.  Ireland is the new 51st. state of the neo-con US world order.  I can see why you don't want to be Irish.

"It's a mystery to me - the game commences, For the usual fee - plus expenses, Confidential information - it's in my diary..."
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 08:32:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
French is the new communism

Interesting insight.

We need a neologism now :
What about "neocommie" ? maybe "neocomm" ?

by balbuz on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 10:27:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Neocom sounds good - sort of a polar opposite to the neo-cons.  Althusser lives!

"It's a mystery to me - the game commences, For the usual fee - plus expenses, Confidential information - it's in my diary..."
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 08:27:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't think a re-vote is on the cards really. Don't know what is.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 06:56:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Nothing. Do you think the idiots at the Commission or Council had a plan B? This was plan C. And they already tried "Plan D".

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 06:58:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I was always against Nice and Lisbon because they are at least partially about forcing europewide competition in ancillary health and education services. All oppositional left groups campaigned on this basis.

The fucking Irish electorate keep voting for governments including the PDs and the pro-market end of Fianna Fail. As if they need any bloody help from the EU in introducing "competition" into the health and education systems. Hell, judging by who they vote for, that's the democratically mandated thing to do. Even if it was true.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 06:46:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I was always against Nice and Lisbon because they are at least partially about forcing europewide competition in ancillary health and education services. All oppositional left groups campaigned on this basis.

They were wrong. There is no such "forcing."

The choice you get to vote on is: Lisbon or Nice. Not Lisbon or nothing.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 08:30:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Or a two speed Europe - with Ireland struggling to make it into the fast lane - and paying a much higher prices for being allowed in there

"It's a mystery to me - the game commences, For the usual fee - plus expenses, Confidential information - it's in my diary..."
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 08:35:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That's not a third option, that is Nice.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 08:46:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I mean a much more explicitly two speed Europe.  Nice represents the default position (slow lane) for all EU members.  The new faster speed inner community will be driven by Germany, France, Spain? and Benelux

"It's a mystery to me - the game commences, For the usual fee - plus expenses, Confidential information - it's in my diary..."
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 08:50:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
What I mean is that the treaty brouhaha from 2002 to now has been a way to avoid having to break down and accept that a two-speed Europe is needed.

After the French, Dutch and Irish referenda the taboo on enhanced cooperation is lifted.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 08:53:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I mean a much more explicitly two speed Europe.  Nice represents the default position (slow lane) for all EU members.  The new faster speed inner community will be driven by Germany, France, Spain? and Benelux

I would argue that that is good (at least for the countries that will go ahead).

Not having to negotiate with, say the UK, will allow for compromises will less "anglo disease". A Benelux, France, Spain, Germany union as a bigger probability of having stronger social components.

Being optimist, maybe they will set up an example - in the long run - of a development model with less neocon/neolib elements on it.

I just hope that they stop trying to nuke democracy, but on that front I am not optimist at all.

by t-------------- on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 09:07:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Let's look at the rules on enhanced cooperation... From the Treaties:
TITLE V

PROVISIONS ON A COMMON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY

...

Article 27a(8)

1.   Enhanced cooperation in any of the areas referred to in this title shall be aimed at safeguarding the values and serving the interests of the Union as a whole by asserting its identity as a coherent force on the international scene. It shall respect:

-

 

the principles, objectives, general guidelines and consistency of the common foreign and security policy and the decisions taken within the framework of that policy,

-

 

the powers of the European Community, and

-

 

consistency between all the Union's policies and its external activities.

2.   Articles 11 to 27 and Articles 27b to 28 shall apply to the enhanced cooperation provided for in this article, save as otherwise provided in Article 27c and Articles 43 to 45.

Article 27b(9)

Enhanced cooperation pursuant to this title shall relate to implementation of a joint action or a common position. It shall not relate to matters having military or defence implications.

Article 27c(10)

Member States which intend to establish enhanced cooperation between themselves under Article 27b shall address a request to the Council to that effect.

The request shall be forwarded to the Commission and, for information, to the European Parliament. The Commission shall give its opinion particularly on whether the enhanced cooperation proposed is consistent with Union policies. Authorisation shall be granted by the Council, acting in accordance with the second and third subparagraphs of Article 23(2) and in compliance with Articles 43 to 45.

Article 27d(11)

Without prejudice to the powers of the Presidency and of the Commission, the Secretary-General of the Council, High Representative for the common foreign and security policy, shall in particular ensure that the European Parliament and all members of the Council are kept fully informed of the implementation of enhanced cooperation in the field of the common foreign and security policy.

Article 27e(12)

Any Member State which wishes to participate in enhanced cooperation established in accordance with Article 27c shall notify its intention to the Council and inform the Commission. The Commission shall give an opinion to the Council within three months of the date of receipt of that notification. Within four months of the date of receipt of that notification, the Council shall take a decision on the request and on such specific arrangements as it may deem necessary. The decision shall be deemed to be taken unless the Council, acting by a qualified majority within the same period, decides to hold it in abeyance; in that case, the Council shall state the reasons for its decision and set a deadline for re-examining it.

For the purposes of this Article, the Council shall act by a qualified majority. The qualified majority shall be defined as the same proportion of the weighted votes and the same proportion of the number of the members of the Council concerned as those laid down in the third subparagraph of Article 23(2).

...

TITLE VI

PROVISIONS ON POLICE AND JUDICIAL COOPERATION IN CRIMINAL MATTERS

...

Article 40(16)

1.   Enhanced cooperation in any of the areas referred to in this title shall have the aim of enabling the Union to develop more rapidly into an area of freedom, security and justice, while respecting the powers of the European Community and the objectives laid down in this title.

2.   Articles 29 to 39 and Articles 40a to 41 shall apply to the enhanced cooperation provided for by this article, save as otherwise provided in Article 40a and in Articles 43 to 45.

3.   The provisions of the Treaty establishing the European Community concerning the powers of the Court of Justice and the exercise of those powers shall apply to this article and to Articles 40a and 40b.

Article 40a(17)

1.   Member States which intend to establish enhanced cooperation between themselves under Article 40 shall address a request to the Commission, which may submit a proposal to the Council to that effect. In the event of the Commission not submitting a proposal, it shall inform the Member States concerned of the reasons for not doing so. Those Member States may then submit an initiative to the Council designed to obtain authorisation for the enhanced cooperation concerned.

2.   The authorisation referred to in paragraph 1 shall be granted, in compliance with Articles 43 to 45, by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, on a proposal from the Commission or on the initiative of at least eight Member States, and after consulting the European Parliament. The votes of the members of the Council shall be weighted in accordance with Article 205(2) of the Treaty establishing the European Community.

A member of the Council may request that the matter be referred to the European Council. After that matter has been raised before the European Council, the Council may act in accordance with the first subparagraph of this paragraph.

Article 40b(18)

Any Member State which wishes to participate in enhanced cooperation established in accordance with Article 40a shall notify its intention to the Council and to the Commission, which shall give an opinion to the Council within three months of the date of receipt of that notification, possibly accompanied by a recommendation for such specific arrangements as it may deem necessary for that Member State to become a party to the cooperation in question. The Council shall take a decision on the request within four months of the date of receipt of that notification. The decision shall be deemed to be taken unless the Council, acting by a qualified majority within the same period, decides to hold it in abeyance; in that case, the Council shall state the reasons for its decision and set a deadline for re-examining it.

For the purposes of this Article, the Council shall act under the conditions set out in Article 44(1).

...

TITLE VII

PROVISIONS ON ENHANCED COOPERATION

Article 43(19)

Member States which intend to establish enhanced cooperation between themselves may make use of the institutions, procedures and mechanisms laid down by this Treaty and by the Treaty establishing the European Community provided that the proposed cooperation:

(a)

 

is aimed at furthering the objectives of the Union and of the Community, at protecting and serving their interests and at reinforcing their process of integration;

(b)

 

respects the said Treaties and the single institutional framework of the Union;

(c)

 

respects the acquis communautaire and the measures adopted under the other provisions of the said Treaties;

(d)

 

remains within the limits of the powers of the Union or of the Community and does not concern the areas which fall within the exclusive competence of the Community;

(e)

 

does not undermine the internal market as defined in Article 14(2) of the Treaty establishing the European Community, or the economic and social cohesion established in accordance with Title XVII of that Treaty;

(f)

 

does not constitute a barrier to or discrimination in trade between the Member States and does not distort competition between them;

(g)

 

involves a minimum of eight Member States;

(h)

 

respects the competences, rights and obligations of those Member States which do not participate therein;

(i)

 

does not affect the provisions of the Protocol integrating the Schengen acquis into the framework of the European Union;

(j)

 

is open to all the Member States, in accordance with Article 43b.

Article 43a(20)

Enhanced cooperation may be undertaken only as a last resort, when it has been established within the Council that the objectives of such cooperation cannot be attained within a reasonable period by applying the relevant provisions of the Treaties.

Article 43b(21)

When enhanced cooperation is being established, it shall be open to all Member States. It shall also be open to them at any time, in accordance with Articles 27e and 40b of this Treaty and with Article 11a of the Treaty establishing the European Community, subject to compliance with the basic decision and with the decisions taken within that framework. The Commission and the Member States participating in enhanced cooperation shall ensure that as many Member States as possible are encouraged to take part.

Article 44(22)

1.   For the purposes of the adoption of the acts and decisions necessary for the implementation of enhanced cooperation referred to in Article 43, the relevant institutional provisions of this Treaty and of the Treaty establishing the European Community shall apply. However, while all members of the Council shall be able to take part in the deliberations, only those representing Member States participating in enhanced cooperation shall take part in the adoption of decisions. The qualified majority shall be defined as the same proportion of the weighted votes and the same proportion of the number of the Council members concerned as laid down in Article 205(2) of the Treaty establishing the European Community, and in the second and third subparagraphs of Article 23(2) of this Treaty as regards enhanced cooperation established on the basis of Article 27c. Unanimity shall be constituted by only those Council members concerned.

Such acts and decisions shall not form part of the Union acquis.

2.   Member States shall apply, as far as they are concerned, the acts and decisions adopted for the implementation of the enhanced cooperation in which they participate. Such acts and decisions shall be binding only on those Member States which participate in such cooperation and, as appropriate, shall be directly applicable only in those States. Member States which do not participate in such cooperation shall not impede the implementation thereof by the participating Member States.

Article 44a(23)

Expenditure resulting from implementation of enhanced cooperation, other than administrative costs entailed for the institutions, shall be borne by the participating Member States, unless all members of the Council, acting unanimously after consulting the European Parliament, decide otherwise.

Article 45(24)

The Council and the Commission shall ensure the consistency of activities undertaken on the basis of this title and the consistency of such activities with the policies of the Union and the Community, and shall cooperate to that end.



When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 09:24:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Debatable. There's plenty of sovereigntist opposition to the EU in France. The Germans have issues with freedom of movement. If it did happen I wonder how the Poles would react. On the one hand they're pretty pro-EU integration, on the other hand that sentiment tends to be correlated with attachment to neo-liberal dogma.
by MarekNYC on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 10:05:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You need a qualified majority to approve an enhanced cooperation, and it must involve at least 8 states (would it be possible to have a vote authorising an enhanced cooperation by a state not intending to take part in it, at least initially?).

Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia: Voting in the Council of the European Union

To pass: Majority of countries (50% or 67%) and votes (74%) and population (62%)

...

The population requirement is almost always already implied by the condition on the number of votes. The rare exceptions to this happen in certain cases when a proposal is backed by exactly two of the five most populous member states but not including Germany, that is, two of France, UK, Italy and Spain, and by all or nearly all of the 22 other members.



When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 10:18:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Hi Jerome

You're right. It does not roll back what has already happened (Nice) but the ongoing 'forcing' of privatisation part is correct. I researched it with a number of others in a lot of detail during the 2nd Nice referendum and our analysis was adopted by the Greens, Sinn Fein, Socialist Party and many Trade unionists during the campaign.

http://www.indymedia.ie/article133/?redirect=article133

Our viewpoint was systematically suppressed during that debate/referendum. I didn't have the heart to get involved this time round but am happy with the result and am now interested to see what ramifications it has for WTO trade negotiations.

This article is where I'm starting

https://www.indymedia.ie/article/87694

by irishhead on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 08:46:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But that stuff is in the Nice treaty, not in Lisbon, right?
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 08:50:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Hi C.

It's in Nice but the agenda is advanced significantly in Lisbon. Some subtle changes in the rewrite: The below is a short extract from my friends research: http://www.indymedia.ie/article/87694

It is very detailed but worth a read.

"The Lisbon Treaty: All Automatic Vetoes Gone

Having established that existing EU law, rules out the ability of Member States to veto and say no to international free-trade deals in goods, commercial aspects of intellectual property and all but five special services, what changes are proposed in the Lisbon treaty and now does it remove our existing no-quibble veto on international free-trade deals in Educational services, Health services, Social services, and, Cultural and Audiovisual services?

In Lisbon, that entire public services protection paragraph of the Nice treaty quoted above (Article 133(6)) starting "In this regard ...", is deleted. Gone is the `shared competence', gone is the `common accord' and gone is the `concluded jointly'. Indeed, if Lisbon is accepted, things could get `much more efficient' for the EU's ability to sign global free-trade agreements. The Lisbon treaty not only drops the automatic veto on the five special services areas, it changes the name of Article 133 (9) as follows:"

by irishhead on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 09:01:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Four by my count. One is true, the other one is false, and two are procedural and not to do with the treaty text.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 06:42:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's not about the Treaty itself!  Almost nobody has read it anyway, and those who have don't understand it.  It is a generalised vote of no-confidence in "the powers that be" for any number of private and public reasons - chiefly to do with a darkening economic climate and a sense that the political system is screwing the little people.

"It's a mystery to me - the game commences, For the usual fee - plus expenses, Confidential information - it's in my diary..."
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 06:45:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Can you blame them?

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 06:47:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes?
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 06:48:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I am increasingly of the view that the era of "eurofudges" may be over and that the time has come for a much simpler and clearer statement of where the EU is going, and how it is to be governed.  Some member states may well reject this - the UK at least - and we will then have the reality of a two speed Europe.  The elites have taken this project as far as they can.  The next step can only be taken by the people of Europe themselves, and some hard choices may have to be made - with some countries getting off the bus if that is what they really want to do.

The Irish people were given a choice with no real downside - except perhaps the status quo - and no real upside either.  Nanne spoke of the EU progressing by bay steps.  It is time for the Baby to grow up and make some major decisions about future direction - and that will mean hard choices with real down and upsides attached to them.

"It's a mystery to me - the game commences, For the usual fee - plus expenses, Confidential information - it's in my diary..."

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 07:00:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Frank Schnittger:
I am increasingly of the view that the era of "eurofudges" may be over and that the time has come for a much simpler and clearer statement of where the EU is going, and how it is to be governed.

Is this a bad thing?

Who knows - if the statement were clear enough and positive enough, people might even vote for it.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 07:32:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think most would - and the UK and possibly some others wouldn't - and then the real fun and games would begin.  I doubt that any new two-speed proposal would be as favourable to smaller countries as Nice/Lisbon was.  Ireland's honeymoon is over.

"It's a mystery to me - the game commences, For the usual fee - plus expenses, Confidential information - it's in my diary..."
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 07:55:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Colman claimed the other day that most two-speed proposals would be of the kind that ireland would like to be part of.

I mean, you're in the Euro and you're not in Schengen only because of the open border agreement with the UK.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 08:01:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
We would have no choice but to be part of the faster part - but our ability to negotiate terms favourable to a smaller country would be much less.  Few in Ireland seem to realise just what a good deal - at every level - we have gotten from the EU in the past.  This was always going to change - slowly - now it will change much faster.

"It's a mystery to me - the game commences, For the usual fee - plus expenses, Confidential information - it's in my diary..."
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 08:06:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Do you trust our current political elite to draft a clear, positive statement ?

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 08:09:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You know, I keep thinking the last time we had people capable of that was with Delors, Kohl, Mitterrand and Gonzalez, and that we owe them the 1992 Treaty on European Union.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 08:12:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
And Mitterrand, at a low point of the PS's popularity, was able to get it through the French electorate, which was quite an impressive feat. At the time, the Gaullist right wing was still quite anti-EU.

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 08:20:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The two-speed Europe will start today. Remember it's the French Presidency starting in July. The french have always been fans of l'Europe à géometrie variable.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 07:47:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Reasons being given by NO voters for there vote include:
1. Concern about jobs because of slump in building industry - and foreign workers taking them
Not part of the treaty. Get out of the European Economic Area, then.
2. Concern that Irish people might be conscripted into a European Army
Unwarranted.
3. Anger at government inaction at high fuel prices
Irrelevant
4. Loss of Commissioner and relative voting weight within EU
Valid
5. Generalised concerned at a lack of democracy and accountability within the EU
The Treaty of Lisbon is an improvement.
6. Anger at the fact that both Taoiseach Brian Cowen, and Commissioner Charlie McCreavey had admitted to not having read the Treaty
Valid
7. Concern at a variety of comments by European leaders that the Treaty text had deliberately been drafted as abstrusely as possible.
Valid
8. Harmonization of corporate taxation - was not as big an issue in predominately working class areas which voted NO by large majorities.
Not part of the treaty. Form a blocking minority with the UK and a couple of other race-to-the-bottom countries
9. Anger amongst farmers at extremely intrusive EU regulation
Not part of the treaty. Have the Irish government form a negotiating block at the council.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 06:39:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Commisioner isn't a representative, so that one's only half-valid.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 06:41:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Still, it is an "Irish voice" at the College of Commissioners. It is an understandable concern and it is part of the treaty.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 06:44:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The current Irish voice is Charlie McCreepy, remember? Who wants him speaking for you?
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 06:47:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Huh, don't vote for Fianna Fail, then.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 06:49:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I didn't. Believe me.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 06:51:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think the decision to reduce the number of commissioners was crazy - it gave the No side a tangible stick with which to beat the yes side.  What's so wrong with having 27 or more commissioners?  Hell, there are more ministers in the Irish Government.  As the EU grows in depth as well as extent - with more competencies devolved to the Commission there will be ample work for them to do.  The saving in financial terms was in any case miniscule.  

If we do decide we need to have a second referendum, that is one concrete change that could be made to justify it - to give every country back "their" Commissioner - would be a popular move and could help to justify having a re-run in Ireland.  It could be presented as a positive outcome for the no side without disadvantaging anyone else in Europe.

"It's a mystery to me - the game commences, For the usual fee - plus expenses, Confidential information - it's in my diary..."

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 08:38:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The argument is that there is not enough significant work to provide to so many commissioners, but I would tend to agree with you that this should be outweighed by the politicla impact of countries not having "one of their own" in the Commission.

I'd support such a change as well.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Jun 15th, 2008 at 05:37:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The Commissioners can always absorb some of the work of the Directors-General.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 15th, 2008 at 07:52:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]

    5. Generalised concerned at a lack of democracy and accountability within the EU

The Treaty of Lisbon is an improvement.

There is a "fallacy" here: You are comparing the EU before and after Lisbon, but that is not the correct comparison. You also have to factor in the loss of power of the nation states to the EU.

I have no love for the nation states, but they are arguably more democratic than the EU.

by t-------------- on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 08:54:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
No, they are not. The major source of "undemocracy" in the EU is the Council which represents the governments of the member states.

The Lisbon treaty expands the power of the Parliament and introduces citizen initiatives and citizen petitions, among other things.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 09:01:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

No, they are not. The major source of "undemocracy" in the EU is the Council which represents the governments of the member states.

The Lisbon treaty expands the power of the Parliament and introduces citizen initiatives and citizen petitions, among other things.

Their might be (or not), a misunderstanding here. I am not saying that Lisbon is less democratic than before with regards to the EU.

What I am saying is that there is a transfer of power from nations (where "democracy rules") to the complex hoodge poodge of the EU (partially democratic, partially "distant from voters").

If you think the "Lisbon EU" is more democratic than composing nation states, then I think there is a real disagreement in interpretation (I don't see it that way).

PS - my Lisbon treaty knowledge is wikipedia based (not read it), but I have no reason to believe that that is insufficient (correct me if you think I am wrong)

by t-------------- on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 09:18:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Shouldn't
nations (where "democracy rules")

be

"nations" (where " "democracy" "rules" ")
?
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 09:30:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Our ex-taoiseach Garret Fitzgerald now saying on national radio that the result of a referendum 'undermines representative democracy'. His reasoning being that people voted against the political establishment

Bizarre. Kind of scary really.

by irishhead on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 09:40:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, you know what "serious" people mean when they say Democracy is in crisis, right? They mean the plebes don't vote for the "right" things (or don't vote).

I don't think he's right, though. People tend to take any referendum as a confidence vote on the political establishment, and "representative" democracy is in a real crisis of legitimacy.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 09:49:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Strictly speaking, he is correct.  We only had a general election a year ago, and now the electorate votes down a proposal supported by over 90% of their elected representatives.  That is a crises for representative democracy - effectively a vote of no confidence in the political system.

What is the Government and opposition to do now that their chosen policy has been voted down?  Have another general election?  Allow Declan Ganly to take over?  Which of the many conflicting no campaign issues should it take up as new official Government policy?  Keeping the one commissioner per country rule is one of the few No campaign issues that actually relate to the Treaty itself, so that might be the place to start.

"It's a mystery to me - the game commences, For the usual fee - plus expenses, Confidential information - it's in my diary..."

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 08:48:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
tiagoantao:

What I am saying is that there is a transfer of power from nations (where "democracy rules") to the complex hoodge poodge of the EU (partially democratic, partially "distant from voters").

If you think the "Lisbon EU" is more democratic than composing nation states, then I think there is a real disagreement in interpretation

There is a real disagreement because you are not comparing like with like when you are comparing the Eu to its constituent member states.  By definition the EU is larger, more complex, and more distant from individual citizens - precisely because it is not made up of citizens, but of member states - with direct participation of citizens - bypassing member states - only coming in slowly via the directly elected EU parliament and direct citizen initiatives.

By rejecting Lisbon, the Irish electorate are essential saying they want it to stay that way - with more say for states and less direct say for citizens.  This will suit nationalists everywhere - and the those outside the EU who want it to remain an essentially weak and inchoate conglomerate of economies with little coherent, combined political power.

A better analogy would be with those workers who chose not to join a union and negotiate directly with their employers - in this case as represented by Global Capital.  Some will possibly be better off - but will workers (= member states) be better off as a whole - particularly the smaller weaker ones?

"It's a mystery to me - the game commences, For the usual fee - plus expenses, Confidential information - it's in my diary..."

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 09:33:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
there is a transfer of power from nations (where "democracy rules") to the complex hoodge poodge of the EU (partially democratic, partially "distant from voters").

"Nations" themselves represent a complex hoodge poodge where power is transferred from lower levels of smaller territorial units.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 10:17:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Depends on the nation's history, though. French power has been centralised since at least Louis XIV... And can't it be said that Hungary evolved from a larger political unit ?

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 10:32:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The difference you make out is only in when the power was transferred. In France, it didn't stop with Louis XIV, I consider say the suppression of the Vendée Revolt as one step. Today - and what the irony: at the effect of the EU! -, in fact there is some reduction of central power because of the strengthening of the regions (say, to hit close to home, passenger services and trains are now financed and ordered by them).

The contraction of the territorial reach of the central power of the state of Hungary is something separate from the relationship of it and smaller units. (Prior to 1001 AD, we can't speak of real centralised power; in the Kingdom, there were a number of local autonomies later abolished; the Hungary part of Austria-Hungary was the union of multiple provinces of the Habsburg Empire; the once strong autonomy of the shires was progressively eliminated through the 19th and 20th century; the personal income tax share of local governments was reduced steadily to the benefit of the central government since 1990, etc.)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 10:51:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It really depends on the country. France's first meeting with centralised states dates from 52 B.C., for example ; and centripetal and centrifugal have been in constant conflict ever since... Egypt has been centralised for much, much longer.

And in many nations, feodal and post-feodal autonomies where nominally, and often really, given by a central authority.

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères

by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 10:57:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, part of it is that you talk of "France" as if there has been a continuity, while in fact these shifting centripetal and centrifugal tendencies acted in changing units with changing borders. (Think of the onetime German Imperial autonomy of Alsace cities, Lotharingia, Burgundy, intermittent French rule in Northhern Italy, areas English-held for much longer than the 100 Years War, Brittany, the kingdoms/fiefdoms of various German tribes prior to the Frank empire, the Gallic Empire break-off from the Roman Empire, etc.)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 11:14:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Of course. But then, there's been a continuous French state in most of what is called "France" today since the Carolingians. And you don't mention the autonomous Guyana Indians tribes ... Hell, there are still at least three kings on French territory !

My larger point is that nations as confederations of smaller unit is not a given : France never was a union of region, but the kingdom of the strongest noble among the Franks, who decided to give autonomy and take it back ; and who conquered , lost and divided among sons, his land

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères

by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 11:21:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't know the exact areas, but I'd estimate that Burgundy, Lotharingia, Alsace, Normandy, Brittany, Corsica, and Aquitania, if taken together, are more than half the territory of modern France. Around 1000 years ago and again at the time of Joan of Arc, central power of the King of France even reduced to not much more than Île-de-France.

Also, during feudalism, local fiefdoms often had more de-facto autonomy than modern confederated states (see again Burgundy), in France, it was done away with progressively only after the 100 Years War (peaking in Louis XIV's de-facto taking hostage of aristocracy by binding them in his own court).

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 11:44:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Normandy and Aquitania were part of Francia Occidentalis since Charles the Bald and always recognised the nominal power of the King of France (except that at one point they disagreed on who was that king). De facto central power varied from very weak (gauls pre-Rome, barbarian invasions, merovingians, beginning of the Capetians around 1000, 100-years wars) and the very strong (Rome at its heyday, Charlemagne, Louis XIV, the 19th century). Choosing one of the points of centralisation of power as the formation of the French State is a bit abusive.

And Burgundy wasn't autonomous, it was pretty much independent until the middle of the second millenia, if I'm not mistaken.

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères

by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 12:50:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Recognition of nominal power is just that. The origins of German federalism are in the Holy Roman Empire of German Nation, in which the Emperor often had only nominal power over the various kingdoms and duchies and lesser fiefdoms, what made a difference was the latter development of French absolutist centralisation vs. Holy Roman Empire disintegration in civil and religious wars.

You say "Choosing one of the points of centralisation of power as the formation of the French State is a bit abusive", but I thought that's my point! You are trying to connect the different past centres of power centralisation into a single coherent timeline.

Burgundy started out similarly to Aquitania: a duchy that made its own politics while nominally under the French king.

Duchy of Burgundy - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

From these counties would emerge both the Duchy of Burgundy and the County of Burgundy, aided by the collapse of Carolingian centralism, and the division of the Frankish domains brought about by the Partition of Verdun in 843. In the midst of this confusion, Guerin, Count of Macon, attached himself to Charles the Bald... Guerin was rewarded for his services by the King ... by being granted the administration of the Counties of Chalon and Nevers, in which he was by custom expected to appoint Viscounts to rule as his deputies. As a vital military defender of the West Frankish border, Guerin was sometimes known by the Latin term for 'leader' - Dux, or Duke.

...Robert the Pious gave the territory to his younger son and namesake, Robert; and when Henry I, acceding in difficult circumstances, found it necessary to secure the loyalty of Robert of Burgundy, his brother, he further heightened the rights given to his brother. Robert was to be Duke of Burgundy; as ruler of the Duchy, he would "enjoy the freehold thereof", and have the right "to pass it on to his heirs"; the Duke would owe allegiance only to the crown of France...

...Finally, in the final months of John the Good's reign, Philip the Bold was established as Duke of Burgundy: the King secretly created his son as Duke on 6 September 1363 (in his dual role as Duke giving his own title to his child and as King sanctioning this change in leadership)...

By 1405, ... Burgundy - to follow the custom of giving the name of the Duchy to the much wider agglomeration assembled by the Dukes - stood less as a French fief, more as an independent state, and a major political player in European politics.

...The last two Dukes to directly rule the Duchy, Philip the Good and Charles the Bold, attempted to secure the independence of their Duchy from the French crown. The endeavour failed however; when Charles the Bold died in battle without sons, Louis XI of France declared the Duchy to have become extinct, and absorbed the territory into the French crown...

Had history turned out a little bit different, today Dijon would be a 'Burgundian'-speaking metropolis and Paris would speak English.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 06:00:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ah, but there was an "independent", separate Kingdom of Burgundy that was absorbed much earlier than I thought, by the Holy Roman Empire. And I was confusing that early kingdom (the second kingdom of Burgundy, too) and the later Duchy-trying-to-become-independent of Charles the Bold ; thinking the later was a successor state to the former.

And the problems with the English and the Burgundian was the same indeed, nobles becoming sovereigns in provinces not part of France. Dual homage was a major instability of feudal organisation.

There is a coherent time line for "Kingdom of the French" since at least Hugues Capet at least - the kingdom stayed in the same family ! That's the France "beyond the Rhone and Escaut" that indeed started with Charles the Bald, and which included the Duchy of Burgundy.

At no single points did the French provinces decide to join and form a French state ; the centralisation was imposed from the center, or from the outside in the case of the Roman Empire. I believe few states appeared thanks to actual voluntary delegations from their constituents ; centralisation was mostly forced from the center through political pressure or force of arms...

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères

by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 10:49:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

"Nations" themselves represent a complex hoodge poodge where power is transferred from lower levels of smaller territorial units.

Yes, but I (I in the sense of "I, the voter") know and can replace the prime minister of my country in a fairly straightforward way (or my MEPs, by the way).

Can you tell me how can I do that in a straightforward way with some of the political powers in the EU?

Maybe we could start by replacing the idea of the EU as a collection of nations with the idea of a collection of citizens... That point of view could help...

by t-------------- on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 10:39:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Maybe we could start by replacing the idea of the EU as a collection of nations with the idea of a collection of citizens... That point of view could help...

Lovely idea. Now, how do we get there?
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 10:42:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
How do you get the nations to agree to dissolve themselves?

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 10:45:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I suppose you are being sarcastic, but there are many ways, a simple example:

Give political EU power to a body directly elected by citizens, and only (mostly) to that.

Want some nation representation? Have a senate, American way. Equal nation representation, directly elected.

I don't think this is a "Summer night's dream".

by t-------------- on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 10:53:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Although I would bet that the narrative now will be "two speeds" EU. Which, depending on the framing, could be good or bad.
by t-------------- on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 10:55:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
"Two speeds" is the only way forward now, so it's an easy bet. Enhanced cooperation has been in the books for over a decade but they've been afraid to use it (Schengen and the Euro were developed in the 80's by the same people who brought you the EU itself at Maastricht).

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 11:05:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
No, they'll do another referendum here in the autumn.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 11:07:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't think they can do a Nice II trick a second time around.  Nice I  was a 35% poll.  Lisbon is a 55% poll.  You're not going to turn that around so easily.  If anything the No vote will get bigger, because people will get REALLY pissed if they have to go through all this again

"It's a mystery to me - the game commences, For the usual fee - plus expenses, Confidential information - it's in my diary..."
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 11:11:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
There will need to be some substantial coda or change - which probably means re-ratification elsewhere - but they could do it. Don't forget that most of the No campaign have suggested that there would be a better deal available.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 11:14:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I predict November, personally.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 11:15:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But NONE of them have been able to articulate what a better deal would mean for them, and we know they are all coming from different places even if they did have an alternative concrete proposal on offer.  So what could the EU offer?  A guarantee not to microchip babies?  That will sway a lot of votes.  

I think it will be a carrot and stick approach myself.  A threat to exclude Ireland from a two speed Europe  should start the ball rolling

"It's a mystery to me - the game commences, For the usual fee - plus expenses, Confidential information - it's in my diary..."

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 11:23:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh, they were mostly lying, but that's not really important - they brought it up so a new referendum can be justified in those terms.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 11:26:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
So what could the EU offer?  A guarantee not to microchip babies?

Actually, could you come up with a list of the specific things that the No camp was worried about, such as the chipping of babies? We could then put together a proposal to "amend" the Treaty.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 01:28:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
My experience of negotiation leads me to think that you could address every single grievance with specific measures - and then they would come up with a new set of problems.  The problem is that although they claimed to want to negotiate a better deal for Ireland, they really wanted no deal at all.

"It's a mystery to me - the game commences, For the usual fee - plus expenses, Confidential information - it's in my diary..."
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 01:35:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's still worth trying, though.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 01:40:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, but you're not negotiating with the advocacy groups, you're trying to convince the voters.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 01:50:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Exactly. And most of the demands are actually harmless to "address".


When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 01:53:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If you want to convince voters you will have to come up a much simpler document that people feel they can understand.  You will also have to explain to them:

  1. what's in it for them
  2. What's in it for Ireland
  3. What's in it for Europe
  4. What's in it for the World

finally we will have to explain to them that the Murdoch/Ganly/McEvaddy media machines have a very different agenda to what is in their own best interest.

"It's a mystery to me - the game commences, For the usual fee - plus expenses, Confidential information - it's in my diary..."
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 01:57:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No, you just have to come up with amendments that address their stated concerns.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 03:45:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Keeping a commissioner for each country is one of their few concerns which actually relates to the Treaty and which might not create a huge problem for other states if the Treaty was changed to allow this.  Can you think of others?

"It's a mystery to me - the game commences, For the usual fee - plus expenses, Confidential information - it's in my diary..."
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 08:52:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, apparently there is some language in the treaty (as pointed out by irishhead) committing the member states to increasing their military capacity. Offer Ireland an opt-out.

The other issues are not in the treaty but could be:

  • To address the concern about the loss of jobs and the foreign workers: stronger language about "full employment" in the introductory part of the treaty
  • To address the concern about militarism: an opt-out from the defence component of the Common Foreign and Security Policy. If this means that the Irish Minister of Defence has to sit out all Council meetings, so be it.
  • Fuel prices: language about energy independence.
  • Democracy and Accountability: make the votes in the Council (if not the deliberation) public, by treaty. Also, it would be good if the EP published that damn report on expense account irregularities of MEPs.
  • Politicians haven't read the treaty: have the government publish an annotated version.
  • Treaty drafted abstrusively: annotated version.
  • Corporate taxation: [while I find that working class people are shooting themselves in the foot by opposing this] offer an opt-out if a clause from any EU fiscal policy: if this means Ireland's finance minister sits out ECOFIN meetings, so be it.
  • EU regulation of farming: offer an opt-out from the CAP.


When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Jun 14th, 2008 at 03:31:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
the last one. How do you opt out of the one fully integrated policy (and that was already integrated when Ireland joined)? Out of the rules? Out of the payment mechanisms?

And it's a huge can of worms.

The rest sounds like sensible ideas.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Jun 15th, 2008 at 05:42:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The last one is bollocks: most Irish farmers would starve to death without CAP.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Sun Jun 15th, 2008 at 06:07:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The first one is bollocks, too: Ireland has been a nation of emigrants until 15 years ago. That's a perfect example of "I got mine, fuck you".

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 15th, 2008 at 07:50:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Do. not. get. me. started. Really.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Sun Jun 15th, 2008 at 07:53:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The last few months have seen a huge and very sudden rise in unemployment due mainly to the collapse in the building industry.  This means that a lot of young working class guys with few qualifications for work outside building have suddenly gone from earning very good money to suddenly having very little to live on.  Those that have families and mortgages are screwed.  Those that got used to a high living, heavy drinking lifestyle are suffering withdrawals.  There is little culture of saving and investment for a rainy day because these guys didn't know life before the Celtic tiger.

So far the downturn has hardly effected middle class families at all - unless they are running their own business - so life goes on as normal for the majority and the political establishment just continues playing its usual games as if nothing is happening.  Some of the no vote, at least, was a protest vote against this disconnect.

The problem is that this problem will get a lot worse in the next few months, and unless the Cowen Government does something pretty dramatic about it, the level of anger and protest can only get worse.  I am hoping it doesn't develop into full blown racist xenophobia directed at the huge recent immigrant population living here and am relieved that so far, it hasn't.  However the Celtic Tiger cubs are growing up and now want to command their own prides, and some pretty nasty infighting could occur when there aren't enough jobs to go around.

Giving them history lessons on how the Irish, too, are a nation of emigrants isn't really going to help much - especially when those lessons are being given by the middle classes still sitting on record levels of income.

"It's a mystery to me - the game commences, For the usual fee - plus expenses, Confidential information - it's in my diary..."

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Sun Jun 15th, 2008 at 08:36:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Doesn't Ireland need any new railroads or other public infrastructure that the government could hire some of that unused construction manpower to build.

After all, if they are unemployed, then it means that nobody is benefiting from their skills.

(Cue Mig pulling out a Keynes quote :-P)

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun Jun 15th, 2008 at 06:49:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Of course, if the Irish Government doesn't do this it's the fault of the Lisbon Treaty.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 15th, 2008 at 07:04:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In fairness the Irish Government has embarked on a huge multi-billion infrastructural development programme which will absorb a lot of the slack from the collapse of the private housing market.  

There have been some noises from Cowen to the effect that this may have to be scaled back because of a sharp downturn in tax revenues, but if ever there was a time and reason to hold your nerve and increase borrowing to fund a large infrastructural programme well this is it.

I can see the Unions pressing hard for this as part of the current social partnership talks - but they may have to pay in terms of pay moderation in order to get it.  

The other plus side of doing it now is that there has been huge price inflation in infrastructural projects because of the tight labour market (in the past) and - well - infrastructural bottlenecks.  So it should be possible to get a lot more done for the same money now that might have been possible a couple of years ago.

Huge money has been spent on infrastructure, health etc. - tripling expenditures of c. 10 years ago - the problem has been getting value for money for the invstment spent.  (Our metros cost many multiples per KM more than e.g. Madrid spent for comparable investment).  A lot of this is down to to inflation at a time of huge growth, but even more to very poor project management and decision making capabilities within the public service.  

For instance the M50 ring road motorway around Dublin handed even been completed when they had to start upgrading it from 4 lanes to 6 for multiples of the original cost.  Now they are going to spend hundreds of millions on an electronic tolling system when a few cent on the price of petrol would bring in the same extra revenue for zero incremental collection cost.

Every private sector company I know rubs its hands at the prospect of a public contract.  The initial tender price may have to be low - but the spec is always changed and then they can charge what they like.  100's of lawyers have become multi-millionaires from the Tribunals alone - work that in England would have been done by a judge and a couple of barristers in a matter of weeks.

The waste is spectacular and yet it is almost impossible to even raise the issue of poor management.  (The Irish Times has never published a letter of mine criticizing any aspect of the management of public projects/services).  This is why I am sometimes at odds with Jerome's paeans of praise to the French public service - if only some real accountability and management disciplines applied in Ireland.


"It's a mystery to me - the game commences, For the usual fee - plus expenses, Confidential information - it's in my diary..."

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Sun Jun 15th, 2008 at 07:41:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I agree.

There is only one way I can see the government being able to hold a "legitimate" second referendum. They could resign on the basis that the electorate have rejected there advocacy of Lisbon and hence that they can no longer presume to hold the electorate's confidence. They could then campaign during the general election on the basis of re-submitting the treaty. Presumably FF and FG would campaign on such a platform and also possibly Labour. It would be a gutsy move, with about zero percent probability of ever happening.

by det on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 05:13:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You could be on to something here.  A general election on this issue would wrong foot both Fine Gael and Labour (as they also supported the Treaty) at the cost of providing a huge boost to Sinn Fein who would be the only real opposition party.  However it would allow Cowen to present himself as a man of principle and convistion and stamp his leadership on the party and give him a mandate in his won right.

He would have a lot of work to do in explaining to the electorate that this is his and our only best option.  I was speaking to a senior civil servant this evening and he is convinced that the "turkey's have just voted for Christmas" and destroyed Ireland's standing in the corridors of power in the EU.  He has been at the sharp end of a lot of EU negotiations, and so he should know.

However Cowen is a very cautious man and I can see him risking his premiership in such a dramatic move.  This one ios going to take some time to sort out.   Expect the media to finally do some digging into Ganly and co.

"It's a mystery to me - the game commences, For the usual fee - plus expenses, Confidential information - it's in my diary..."

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 08:07:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
However Cowen is a very cautious man and I can see him risking his premiership in such a dramatic move.

Can? Can't?

This one ios going to take some time to sort out.   Expect the media to finally do some digging into Ganly and co.

Last night on the BBC, the "no" campaign was presented as consisting of LIBERTAS and LIBERTAS only. WIll he turn it into a political party?

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Jun 14th, 2008 at 03:09:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
sorry, can't.

I think he would be very stupid to try and would be hammered.  The progressive Democrats are the most comparable pro business pro US party and they have dropped down to 2% of the vote.  He was given a free ride because he wasn't a politician.  That would change overnight if he turned it into a political party.  I hope he does - his true level of support would quickly become apparent.

The BBC must be trying to spin this as "Ireland comes around to Britain's Euroscepticism" because there is no way he remotely compares to Sinn Fein in terms of potential political support.

"It's a mystery to me - the game commences, For the usual fee - plus expenses, Confidential information - it's in my diary..."

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Sat Jun 14th, 2008 at 05:39:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't mean how to theoretically construct it - though a US model is one of the worst ideas I can think of - I mean how to get there. What sequence of believable steps would you take? How do you get your wonderful idea ratified?
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 10:55:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I am just taking, from the US model, the Congress and Senate.

Never the dependency on private money for politics.

And the ideal, long term "congress" would be proportional - EU wide - single circle.

How to get there? First step: Have a treaty that reinforces the parliament (I know, Lisbon does that) and empties the non electable parts of the EU.

What I don't want to see is major policy decisions coming from unelected (or very indirectly elected) parts of the EU. Just that.

And things like tax competition, future train liberalization, come as far as I know (correct me if I am wrong) not from the European parliament but from either the commission or inter governmental agreements.

But, falling back to pragmatic reality, I would bet that the way now will be "two speeds". But lets see...

by t-------------- on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 11:13:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
tiagoantao:
How to get there? First step: Have a treaty that reinforces the parliament (I know, Lisbon does that) and empties the non electable parts of the EU.
How do you get the Council to agree to strip itself of power?
What I don't want to see is major policy decisions coming from unelected (or very indirectly elected) parts of the EU. Just that.
Because National Laws are shining examples of rational and just  policies and EU Directives are blockheaded. Right.
And things like tax competition, future train liberalization, come as far as I know (correct me if I am wrong) not from the European parliament but from either the commission or inter governmental agreements.
True, but how do you get the Council to give up their political power?

And, if you do that, how do you get the sovereigntist camp in each member state from voting no? They'de be very strong in a number of countries, actually in a majority I suspect (Ireland, UK, Scandinavia and most of the New Member States)

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 11:18:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

    What I don't want to see is major policy decisions coming from unelected (or very indirectly elected) parts of the EU. Just that.

Because National Laws are shining examples of rational and just  policies and EU Directives are blockheaded. Right

My argument for democracy is not pragmatic but principled.

I am Portuguese, most of what can be called civilization in my country is normally the imposition of an EU directive (this is an exaggeration, but you get the point).

I am fully aware of the shortcomings of democracy. I normally am against the common/majority sense in my original country. But in the overall I cannot think of a better system (a topic for another discussion...).

by t-------------- on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 11:39:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
tiagoantao:
I am Portuguese, most of what can be called civilization in my country is normally the imposition of an EU directive (this is an exaggeration, but you get the point).
It may not be an exaggeration because the Enlightenment has been an elite project for the last 300 years. Progressive and potentially inclusive, but elite all the same.

The labour movement has been another powerful non-elite engine of progress.

Both seem to have fizzled out of late and a synthesis and revival would be a very good thing.

But the point is that a technocratic elite might be a good thing in a democratic arrangement.

In France, however, as I gather from Jerome's complaints, the technocratic elite has lost its public service ethos and been coopted into predatorial capitalism which is not a good thing. And as the EU Commission looks a lot like the French civil service, one should expect a similar shift there.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 11:49:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Exactly.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 06:53:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I am just taking, from the US model, the Congress and Senate.

Never the dependency on private money for politics.

  1. The dependenccy on private money for politics, and the general bad state, arguably has stuctural reasons, too.

  2. As Migeru noted, there are other federal models around.

  3. Personally, I don't see much sense in a diretly elected Senate, when there are governments already. Either way, I would like to see the power of the body representing the federated territorial units reduced relative to the body representing all citizens of the federation.


*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 11:36:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Actually, an unelected second-reading chamber helps protect the State from the influence of money. Case in point: if the House of Lords votes down 42-day detention it will be in part because Brown can't threaten the Lords with a snap election where they'd lose their seats, or engage in horse-trading on individual constituency demands.

So I am convinced that having two directly elected chambers is a waste. Spain's Senate definitely is useless as configured and I would much rather it be replaced with the Conference of Presidents.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 11:40:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I missed one line here: ... but I am not convinced that a unelected second chamber is a bad idea

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 11:55:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
tiagoantao:
I suppose you are being sarcastic, but there are many ways, a simple example:
He's pointing out that you need to get this coded into a treaty, agreed by the Council of the EU, and approved by all 27 member states. Good luck with steps 2 and 3, as we have seen.
Give political EU power to a body directly elected by citizens, and only (mostly) to that.
Define "political power". The EU already exist. Don't fetishize "directly elected": this is still a representative democracy.
Want some nation representation? Have a senate, American way. Equal nation representation, directly elected.
Don't fetishize the American Senate. We already have the Council, which is very much like the German Bundesrat, the Swiss Federal Council, or the Spanish (consultative) "Assembly of Presidents" (of Autonomous Communities).
I don't think this is a "Summer night's dream".
It is to think it'll be any easier to even get agreement to that at the EU Council.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 11:00:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The EU already exist

I mean the EP already exists.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 11:21:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, to not be negative, I would love to see an EU federalist reform via citizen's initiative rather than the work of a body drawn from national parliaments but hijacked by ol' Giscard. In fact, in that situation, the EU Council might feel pressed to play along.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 11:22:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Too bad the Lisbon Treaty and its right of Initiative didn't pass.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 11:23:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
What I mean is that the (or a) Constitution/Reform/Lisbon Treaty itself would have a greater chance of being passed in referendums, would it be pushed by (would it be seen as owned by) a citizen's initiativew rather than the political class.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 05:17:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Does making the European Parliament draft it count?

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 05:26:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Do you mean

Citizen's Initiative for new Constitution -> EP actually drafts it -> text goes through Council and Commission -> final draft goes to referendums, with citizen's initiative taking credit -> people approve,

or

EP initiates and drafts it -> text goes through Council and Commission -> final draft goes to referendums, with EP distinguishing itself from the "political class" (Counci, governments) and the "bureaucrats" (Commission) by taking credit -> people approve?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 06:12:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
More the second, thought I suspect you meant the first.

I don't think either is currently viable as things stand: the Irish just killed the right of petition though if someone gathered 1 million signatures I suppose it could still be made to happen.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 06:17:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I meant the first, and I meant an 'inofficial' but "making-waves" citizen's initiative, which itself could achieve the right of real Citizen's Initiative as part of a reform treaty people actually accept.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 06:29:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Just to make sure you do not miss my humble ideas on how to use the EP election to transfer real power within the structure:
European Tribune - After Lisbon, using EP election to strenghten EP power
After Lisbon, using EP election to strenghten EP power

"If elected, I will not vote to elect an EP president unless the president in question agrees to hold an EP conference to draft the EPs proposal for a coherent constitution, to be approved by EU-wide common referenda before submitted to member state ratification"

A vote for PES is a vote for EPP! A vote for EPP is a vote for PES! Support the coalition, vote EPP-PES in 2009!

by A swedish kind of death on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 07:14:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Here's how we should top Stop Blair!: draft our own EU Constitution & campaign for it!...

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 06:31:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 06:43:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
He's pointing out that you need to get this coded into a treaty, agreed by the Council of the EU, and approved by all 27 member states. Good luck with steps 2 and 3, as we have seen. [my emphasis]

Is there any reason under international law why a number of states could not decide to mutually and consensually annex each other and establish a bigger state? And is there any reason under international law that such a superstate could not withdraw from the EU unilaterally, either after or during formation?

If this superstate encompasses all of the EU sans a few objecting minor countries (UK, Cyprus, maybe Denmark. You all know The Usual Suspects), they might even be able to transfer most of the bureaucracy reasonably intact, if that is considered desirable.

How would this differ from amending the existing treaties to make the EU a federal state (apart, of course, from being a bit smaller)?

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun Jun 15th, 2008 at 06:38:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think it is quite feasible, within international law, for a number of current EU members states to agree (say) a joint constitution which binds them much closer together than the current EU does.  Non members of this elite club would only have a grievance if any of the elite club welshed on their commitments to them under existing EU treaties.  

However given that these are presumably mostly lesser commitments, and that the new elite arrangement is a superset of what the EU treaty obligations currently are - there might not actually be a problem except for hugely confusing arrangements which might be required to keep the entities separate  - e.g. two commissions serving some of the same countries but not all.

However the members of the elite club could also give notice of their intention to withdraw from the existing EU and nobody could stop them.  You would then have an elite club of x members - and a rump EU of 27-X members.  Pretty soon they would be accepted as nonsensical by all, and, depending on the size of X, one camp would fold its tent and either go independent or join the other.

Thus if the EP drafted a radical and simplified new constitution, and say 22 members signed up for it and gave notice of their intention to withdraw from the EU (classic edition), the other 5 would realistically have to either join up or go it alone.  Small countries like Ireland would have little choice but to join up.  Only bigger countries like UK/Sweden etc. might decide otherwise.  And everyone might decide a much more cohesive and democratic EU of say 25 members is better than a chaotic 27 member EU.

This may be the thinking behind the proposal that the Lisbon ratification process should continue.  At some point the Lisbon compliant members might simply threaten to leave the old EU and continue on their own - at which point Ireland would cave in and the UK might not - but I wouldn't be surprised if even the UK would cave in at the last moment amid loud accusations of blackmail etc.

The bottom line is that the EU is the only game in town and those who threaten it are playing with fire.

"It's a mystery to me - the game commences, For the usual fee - plus expenses, Confidential information - it's in my diary..."

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Sun Jun 15th, 2008 at 08:10:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In theory, by voting for your MEP, you could replace the Commission (and Lisbon would have further enhanced this power). In theory. In practice, the Parliament doesn't yet rattle power structures that much, last time, Parliament was content with a re-shuffling of the Commission.

Then agsain, the same goes for national politics: in theory, Colman could kick Ahern's bunch out of power. In theory, ThatBritGuy could kick Brown out of power, but as things stand other Brits will vote Cameron in. In theory, I could vote Orbán and Gyurcsány out in Hungary, except 95% of voters won't vote for anything but the two main parties. In theory, de Gondi could send Berlusconi into hot hell and vote in some leftist government without centrist blackmailers, but it never seems to work out.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 10:56:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Hah! That is because me and my Bilderburg buddies run the world!

"It's a mystery to me - the game commences, For the usual fee - plus expenses, Confidential information - it's in my diary..."
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 11:00:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Off-topic nitpick: I know yours was originated by Lasthorseman; but it annoys me how often English-speakers confuse "burg" ( = castle, walled town - see 'burgh' and 'borough') and "berg" ( = mountain), even if the old German root is the same.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 11:17:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
does the fact that I spelled it wrong prove I am not a member?

"It's a mystery to me - the game commences, For the usual fee - plus expenses, Confidential information - it's in my diary..."
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 11:35:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
No, it proves you're trying to hide the fact!

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 11:52:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But at each point on the second paragraph you vote for or against people with actual names.

Most voters didn't know Barroso's name before 2004. (And don't know him even now)

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères

by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 11:12:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
No one knew Gyurcsány prior to 2004, when he arose from nothing and then replaced the existing PM between elections. I doubt many in France knew Fillon before Sarko made him PM, for that matter.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 11:25:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But then Fillon isn't the person who actually leads the executive (and was quite a noted politician before 2007 ; the "unknown PM" we last had was Raffarin in 2002) ; and you did get to vote for or against Gyurcsány in the next election ; whereas nobody will ever really vote on Barroso.

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 11:32:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Barroso is up for re-election after the EP elections next year. If we can change the EPP's relative majority...

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 11:48:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Is it the EPP who decided on Barroso, or the European council (with non-EPP Blair having a strong input on the decision) ?

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 12:51:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Bertie Ahern brokered the deal in the Council

"It's a mystery to me - the game commences, For the usual fee - plus expenses, Confidential information - it's in my diary..."
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 12:54:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The deal is now likely void because two of the "top four jobs" may not be there to divvy up.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 01:10:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes. But, purely in theory, the EP could decide to block him.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Fri Jun 13th, 2008 at 06:01:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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