Display:
The problem is that he gets the initial diagnosis wrong- the cause of the current imbalances - and of global inflation - was Western, and in particular US - policies focused on providing cheap debt.
The 'savings glut' lowers interest rates, some are more receptive than others to take debt with lower rates. There is no objective correct behaving on this. It is as much nonsense to blame those countries who took the debt as those which lend. It is about an agreement of mature people and no side should try blame the other for its own pain. Max Weber said, if you have one single reason for a complex social development, you are almost certainly wrong. Neither Fed nor govs reacted, but just some actors not stopping something isn't the sole reason for something to happen.

The reason Western consumers had to borrow was not to absorb the Asian surpluses, it was to compensate for their stagnant incomes caused by macro-economic policies that favor short term corporate and financial profits over everything else.
I completely disagree with this. Western countries had to absorb Asian surpluses or building up trade barriers, as Asian countries have/had explicitly mercantilist policies. Incomes were stagnant largely because of the competition with low wage countries. Wages in the US, UK, Ireland, Spain have grown faster in recent years than e.g. German wages. If your thesis would be correct, German consumers would have borrowed much more than consumers in the above countries. This is clearly not the case, e.g. the term 'Western consumers' is not really what I think is appropriate.
Among the reasons I would suggest for the anglo disease

  • different cultural acceptance of debt
  • different cultural view on showing off, btw. keeping up with others
  • type of prevalent industry before it began
  • expectation of future financial situation
  • autosuggestion into the believe that high deficits are no problem
  • policy reaction (at least under Clinton) to counter what you suggest as reason, but not to deal with a given Asian surplus (that means, if the state borrows less, consumers will borrow more)


Der Amerikaner ist die Orchidee unter den Menschen
Volker Pispers
by Martin (weiser.mensch(at)googlemail.com) on Wed Jun 18th, 2008 at 11:52:17 AM EST
Germans did not go for debt and "enjoyed" the low growth caused by stagnant incomes. Which kinda makes my point that debt was used to hide the real consequences of stagnant wages in other countries, especially the Anglo ones.

I disagree fundamentally that it is the mercantilist policies that caused the export surplus of these countries. It is US deficits fuelled by debt that created the surplus. The mercantilist policies did feed the cycle, but did not initiate it. Of course you had positive feedback after, but the real decision was to keep interest rates low in 2001-2004, along with the tax cuts to the rich that fuelled inequality.


In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Wed Jun 18th, 2008 at 03:58:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So low Fed funds rate is responsible for the deficit e.g. India has with China? Why have several Asian states such high reserves, e.g. gov decided saving instead of private decisions to save?
The mercantilist policy in Asia was an answer to the crisis in the end of 90s. You think Asian countries would not try to make a policy, which would prevent such a crisis to happen again? That this is just a random outcome of decisions made by others?
I don't deny that the Fed would have had the power to reduce the propensity to private debt in the US, but one shouldn't blame only the borrower if a deal turns out to be bad. The lender is as responsible, or he has nobody to blame. The same accounts for those who took the debt. Nobody can say, 'oh, the rates were so low, I had to buy an oversized and overpriced house'.

Recently I have started to read Nassim Taleb's 'The Black Swan'. The thing I found most interesting so far, is a piece about how humans tend to build narratives around facts. 'Savings glut' and 'Promotion of debt' seem to be such narratives. Both may describe the truth, but it includes already an interpretation of what is the morally correct propensity to take debt. It is more than just facts.

Furthermore I don't think at all, that CA deficit necessarily leads to anglo-disease. That is what stroke me even more in Wolf's article than his 'savings glut',
The most important such group turned out to be households
This was visible since quite some time, and nobody reacted on it. 'It turned out' sounds a bit like fate, but 4 years ago those who could have changed that, found lots of good reasons, why consumer debt is a great idea. But of course you can use a CA deficit as well to build up infrastructure, to kickoff research and other business investments, to overcome a temporarily demographic situation (e.g. lots of kids),...

Der Amerikaner ist die Orchidee unter den Menschen
Volker Pispers

by Martin (weiser.mensch(at)googlemail.com) on Wed Jun 18th, 2008 at 05:55:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Recently I have started to read Nassim Taleb's 'The Black Swan'. The thing I found most interesting so far, is a piece about how humans tend to build narratives around facts. 'Savings glut' and 'Promotion of debt' seem to be such narratives. Both may describe the truth, but it includes already an interpretation of what is the morally correct propensity to take debt. It is more than just facts.

Have you read Per Bak's How Nature Works?

I have mentioned Taleb in some earlier diaries. Maybe you'd like to do a review of Black Swan when you're finidhed with it?



When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Jun 18th, 2008 at 06:26:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Maybe you'd like to do a review of Black Swan when you're finidhed with it?
Sure.

Der Amerikaner ist die Orchidee unter den Menschen
Volker Pispers
by Martin (weiser.mensch(at)googlemail.com) on Thu Jun 19th, 2008 at 09:02:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Display:
Login
. Make a new account
. Reset password
Occasional Series