However, Western Europe cannot convince Russia that it is in their interest to have good relations - they have to come to that conclusion themselves. When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
Unless we manage to build enough windfarms in Poland and Lithuania so that they only need Russian gas marginally! In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
More seriously, what I had in mind is a substitute NATO made up of EU members - i.e. a formal institutionalized military alliance. Rhetoric matters too. In practical terms Merkel's policies haven't been that different from Schroeder's, but her tone has been. That didn't help much with the hardline PiS government, but it is paying dividends now that the less Russophobe and Germanophobe moderates are in power. Contrast that to the tensions between the equally moderate SLD government and Germany during the Schroeder years.
I don't see it happening. To convince the East Central European states to stop being Atlanticist the EU would have to provide a substitute for the American alliance, both structurally and rhetorically.
ECE is a net recipient of EU funds. Assuming political will existed, some pretty serious arm twisting could be applied to make them stop acting like total morons.
And ultimately, when push comes to shove, ECE can't choose to be in the American sphere of influence. They have to choose between Moscow and Berlin/Brussels. For geographic reasons if nothing else. What we need is for them to have a Suez moment. Or rather, for someone from Western Europe to have them a Suez moment.
- Jake If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.
