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The final consumer doesn't "bid" on price but on volume. Given a price, he decides how much to buy.

The price is "offered" by the distributors of refined products.

The distributors buy from refiners (unless they are vertically integrated, but still, if the market price is high enough you may decide to sell your refined products wholesale rather than distribute them yourself). So you can say that there is bidding amond distributors to buy from the refiners.

The refiners bid among themselves for crude. We're told the refiners' high bid for  Arab Heavy is lower than Saudi Arabia's asking price. This means that the refiners don't feel they can raise their asking price for refined products, which means that there isn't an unreasonable profit margin being made between refiners and distributors.

So, where are the profit margins? It appears the profit margins are mostly going to the producers.

OPEC can no longer push prices downward by increasing production, but they can push prices higher by withwolding it. They appear to be doing just that with Arab Heavy: asking for a price the refiners won't bear because the market for refined products also won't bear the resulting retail price.

Now, unlike in the 1970's when OPEC's stated reason to withhold production was political (the Yom Kippur war), in this instance the reason is economic. And who can fault them? If they know their balck gold is running out they should husband it, not sell it cheap to Whitey.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jun 23rd, 2008 at 06:41:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Migeru:
This means that the refiners don't feel they can raise their asking price for refined products, which means that there isn't an unreasonable profit margin being made between refiners and distributors.
Well, maybe that means they are already fleecing the distributors, but since HiD claims refiners are not making a lot of money (and Starvid brings up the "narrow crack spreads"), it would seem the refiners' margins are in fact not huge.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jun 23rd, 2008 at 09:43:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
More like infinitesmal.

Check the development of the shares of the two big refiners Tesoro and Valero.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Mon Jun 23rd, 2008 at 11:03:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Don't cry too much for them.  And their situation is very different from an Asian refiner designed for max diesel.

NYMEX heat   July 3.8, Dec 3.95/gallon
NYMEX gas    July 3.45 Dec 3.3/gallon
WTI             136.8      137.1/bbl

Heat cracks are    $23/bbl prompt and $29 for winter.  That's plenty!  
gas is lower    $8/ $1.5

That's the problem for US refiners designed for max mogas like Valero and Tesoro.        

by HiD on Mon Jun 23rd, 2008 at 06:24:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Eh, I should have known...

The people at the Preem/Scanraff in Lysekil invested huge $$$ in equipment to turn Russian heavy/sour into sulfur-free diesel. They are swimming in money now.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Tue Jun 24th, 2008 at 10:49:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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