Moreover, the short termism inherent in the financing system has starved the market of necessary investment - particularly in refining, which is where the bottlenecks are.
How much would that cost, how long would it take to build, and what would be its lifetime?
Suppose, also, that you believe in the current price climate a lot of the demand for liquid fuels is going to shift to electricity from other sources on a scale of 5 to 10 years.
It might be that it doesn't make sense to invest in a heavy sour refinery because by the time you'd expect to be recouping your investment, the demand for the refined product just isn't there. We may not be in that situation yet, but it's a scenario I'd like to see developed, because it might mean that the underinvestment in heavy sour refining capacity in the 1980's/90's might be an irreversible, frozen historical accident. When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
US refiners still remember a decade+ of pain from the wild eyed expansions of the late 70's/early 80s. Yet there are still billions of dollars of projects in the works. Conoco even has ads on TV bragging about doubling the size of their already large Lake Charles refinery.
I'd guess a modern 250 MBD refinery is at least $5 billion bucks. Would take you 3-5 years from getting permits to go to have it up and running.
