I hear your point and I expect oil will wave down in the next 3-5 years as investment in alternatives and conservation kick in. However, with 1 billion Chinese and another billion Indians still living in 1750 for all intents, there's so much room to grow oil may never really retrace.
agree 100%. Speculation has had input in making the price move much faster to where it was going anyway. Always money to be made in reading the tea leaves and making the market move on YOUR timetable.
But there's no fundamental reason for the price to be higher than $150 - it might stabilize at that level on the argument that at that level alternative energy infrastructure becomes profitable.
2 years abowe $100 and the long-term expectations will set in and change the game. When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
For instance, suppose the break-even price is $50, so $80 for 15 years is $30 over break-even for 15 years. Could you get away with $90 over the threshold for 5 years? That would be $140 for 5 years, which you can now perfectly hedge in the forward market. When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
And as wind grows, it pulls marginal prices down, thus threatening its own viability. Thus, as I noted before, it's likely that wind will need feed-in tariffs even as fuel prices are very high... In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
