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How much above $80 do they need to be for 15 years? There are too dimensions here, premium and time.

For instance, suppose the break-even price is $50, so $80 for 15 years is $30 over break-even for 15 years. Could you get away with $90 over the threshold for 5 years? That would be $140 for 5 years, which you can now perfectly hedge in the forward market.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Jun 24th, 2008 at 08:20:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
but electricity prices follow gas prices with a lag, and gas prices follow oil prices with a lag (and with quite independent short term variations).

And as wind grows, it pulls marginal prices down, thus threatening its own viability. Thus, as I noted before, it's likely that wind will need feed-in tariffs even as fuel prices are very high...

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Jun 24th, 2008 at 04:08:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, as a matter of pure Keynesian trade policy, it is only common sense to pull wind off the margin and into the baseline.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Tue Jun 24th, 2008 at 06:14:57 PM EST
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