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Hmm, notice you're talking about the death probability per year being larger than 1/2 already... Once you're a centenarian, does it really get that much worse at 105, 110, etc?

Your model doesn't allow people to live to 120 at all, which is worse than the alternative given the vanishingly small probability of survival year after year when the yearly one is under 1/2.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jun 26th, 2008 at 10:36:17 AM EST
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Does one or two very, very old people make much difference for aggregate statistics that lumps people 65+ together already?
I made the death rate slightly less for the calculation to maybe fudge out the cutoff age a bit. I.e., I moved the probability one death-age from 104 to 105, and slowed the curve a bit. Here are the two actual fits (exponential, and logistic):

I could redo the calculations with a higher cutoff and the logistic. (I want a cutoff to maintain finite vectors. But it could be 150, or more.)
by someone (s0me1smail(a)gmail(d)com) on Thu Jun 26th, 2008 at 10:59:49 AM EST
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