As Krugman has pointed out, it makes no sense to suggest that futures are pulling up spot prices, because spot prices have actually been higher:
This complicates the scapegoat argument, because the argument only works if oil is being physically held from the market in order to take higher prices in the future. As Krugman and others have noted, there simply isn't evidence that a big chunk of oil is being withheld. If you're shuffling paper around the markets -- well, that's cute, but the gas is still coming to market, and the market still clears unless you're hoarding it.
And the incentive, with higher spot prices relative to futures, is obviously to bring the oil to market, not to hoard it. Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
Speculators aren't crazy either. At $130/bbl for crude and 6% interest you're paying $8/year or 65cts/month in time value. Add on double handling expenses, losses due evaporation, quality degradation issues on finished fuels (minor concern usually except maybe for jet fuel) and it's no free lunch to just tank oil hoping for a pop. The only time you'd do that if you have a heavy contango (prompt physical much cheaper than futures a few months out) to pay for some of the costs. With a dead flat futures curve, it makes no sense. Just buy a future instead.
