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Well if the risk of Iranian invasion is adding say, $30 to current prices - which should suppress long term demand somewhat - what is the effect of the Iranian invasion NOT happening - or being perceived to become v. low risk - e.g. with election of Obama? Would that mean that the unwinding of this risk should reduce prices by $60 - to get back to no risk premium, and to compensate for previous over-pricing (risk turned out to be 0) when invasion didn't happen)?

Seems to me risk premiums always seem to work one way, and never compensate when risks are not realised and much more benign scenarios unfold.

"It's a mystery to me - the game commences, For the usual fee - plus expenses, Confidential information - it's in my diary..."

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Fri Jun 27th, 2008 at 01:41:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That might be because the risk premiums are generally overestimated as a source of price increases. Or it might be because we only talk about the risk premiums when prices are already going up fast and for a multitude of reasons, and then the removal of the risk premium could easily be eaten up by the general upwards movement (assuming that the risk drops in a continuous fashion). Or it might be that prices are not path-independent, so you don't recoup all the premium in any case. Or any combination.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sat Jun 28th, 2008 at 04:02:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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