Surely there's a chance that the floodgates on refugees will open if Mugabe continues to crack down on an already resigned population, but I haven't heard or read anything so far about increasing border crossings.
It's true that Zimbabwe's neighbours have become increasingly outspoken against Mugabe - particularly Zambia, Botswana and Tanzania taking (unprecedented?) fierce oppositions against a "father of the revolution" who destroyed his own heritage. Despite everything, one must not forget how important and respected the father figure is in African cultures. Even when the AU statement was watered down, a new line is being drawn in the sand.
In the meantime, two developments to keep track of: a) continued violence against MDC members
Robert Mugabe moves to erase the MDC - Times Online
Naison Nemadizwa, the newly elected MDC MP for Buhera South, was abducted in daylight on Tuesday as he emerged from the High Court in Harare having seen off a legal challenge by the losing Zanu (PF) candidate. Onlookers saw him bundled into the back of a waiting car and driven away after he became involved in an argument with a group of six men. One of his abductors was identified as a colonel in the army. "We are starting to see a pattern emerge," Nelson Chamisa, the MDC spokesman, said. "This is a consistent, co-ordinated strategy." Ten opposition MPs have been arrested in recent weeks and two remain in custody while others are out on bail charged with a range of offences alleging their involvement in election violence. Another, Thamsanqa Mahlangu, remains in a coma after he was attacked by the Zanu (PF) youth militia on his way to Mr Tsvangirai's election rally in Harare a week before the election. Mr Tsvangirai pulled out of the election within hours of the attack, saying that he could no longer ask supporters to take such risks. Sources say that the regime is setting its sights on the remaining opposition MPs, arresting those it can on trumped-up charges of assault, theft and rape. If convicted, the MPs would lose their seats, sparking by-elections that Zanu (PF) plans to win by employing the terror tactics that won Mr Mugabe his sixth presidential term.
Naison Nemadizwa, the newly elected MDC MP for Buhera South, was abducted in daylight on Tuesday as he emerged from the High Court in Harare having seen off a legal challenge by the losing Zanu (PF) candidate. Onlookers saw him bundled into the back of a waiting car and driven away after he became involved in an argument with a group of six men. One of his abductors was identified as a colonel in the army.
"We are starting to see a pattern emerge," Nelson Chamisa, the MDC spokesman, said. "This is a consistent, co-ordinated strategy." Ten opposition MPs have been arrested in recent weeks and two remain in custody while others are out on bail charged with a range of offences alleging their involvement in election violence. Another, Thamsanqa Mahlangu, remains in a coma after he was attacked by the Zanu (PF) youth militia on his way to Mr Tsvangirai's election rally in Harare a week before the election. Mr Tsvangirai pulled out of the election within hours of the attack, saying that he could no longer ask supporters to take such risks.
Sources say that the regime is setting its sights on the remaining opposition MPs, arresting those it can on trumped-up charges of assault, theft and rape. If convicted, the MPs would lose their seats, sparking by-elections that Zanu (PF) plans to win by employing the terror tactics that won Mr Mugabe his sixth presidential term.
And b) heavy negotiating behind the scenes: Peace plan for Zim given qualified welcome by MDC - Mail & Guardian Online: The smart news source
The opposition believes the proposal appears to represent a recognition by Mbeki -- whom Tsvangirai had previously accused of "colluding with Mugabe to play down the deepening political crisis" -- that the Zimbabwean president's power is crumbling. But the MDC remains suspicious of Mbeki and is demanding that the African Union be a party to any deal to ensure it is adhered to. The proposal nonetheless adds to growing international pressure on Mugabe, who has said that while he is prepared to talk to the opposition, it must first recognise that he is the legitimately elected president and will remain so. Mbeki's spokesperson, Mukoni Ratshitanga, said he could neither confirm nor deny that such a document exists. Nigeria is the latest African government to condemn last month's presidential election, in which Mugabe claimed 90% of the valid votes after a military-led campaign of violence against the opposition.
To get criticism from Nigeria on election fraud has a good chunk of embedded irony if you'd ask me... But still, I'd say it's another tinsy sign of positive progress in African politics.
I think it is indeed a positive sign that another stolen election in Africa at least gets some front page notice, rather than business as usual. It remains to be seen whether the world community actually does something about it. Now where are we going and what's with the handbasket?
however its only a rumour, and I pretend no actual knowledge. Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
It is as if the riots and the tens of thousands who were caught up in xenophobic violence no longer matter, because suddenly Zimbabwe is the bigger, more imperative issue and we just twist the facts and context why there are thousands of people still in Methodist Church.
I also fault the BBC for this.
As for intervention in Zim, I'm not exactly holding my breath.
