What can be expected of Europe in Iraq? Not very Much!
1. The EU has very little leverage of any sort on the US, Israel or the Middle east
2. Hence an EU concern for human rights there is largely moot
3. It is in Israel's interest to keep Iraq weak, divided, and if necessary, at war with itself
4. Iran becoming more powerful is a bad thing in itself, as far as Israel/US is concerned. The nuclear issue is the pretext - even civilian use of nuclear power increases Iran's prestige in the region - and so must be stopped.
5. Israel largely runs US foreign policy in the region - to a degree which is truly remarkable and which highlights the flaws in the US political system - as often this is to the detriment of US interests in themselves.
6. Nobody cares about the Kurds - except the Kurds themselves - and they don't matter - therefore nobody cares
7. ibid - the Palestinians - who are a non people as far as Zionists are concerned
8. It's about Oil and power stupid. The Saudis have it - so they can be as repressive as they like.
9. McCain is not going to win in November if the USA is not at war at that time. Therefore the US will be at war with Iran in November - if only to make Obama look like a naive appeaser without military experience or proper patriotic credentials. The fact that thousands will die to make this happen doesn't even qualify as collateral damage any more - as the damage is to the enemy, the Democrats, and the US underclass who actually end up having to do the fighting..
10. The EU will not do anything effective when this happens - so everyone will ignore it - except perhaps to plant a few terrorist bombs to get it on side...
11. I am not a cynic. "It's a mystery to me - the game commences, For the usual fee - plus expenses, Confidential information - it's in my diary..."
Nah. No more than the Cuba lobby runs Latin American policy. Influence, sure, but that goes both ways - witness the attempts by Cheney et. al. to discourage Israel from ending its little Lebanon adventure a while back, or more recently trying to force them to stop talking peace with Syria. The hawks in both countries are a mutually reinforcing lobby which operates to the detriment of both countries (though of course the hawks think otherwise).
As far as the electoral effect of writing off the Cuba lobby vs. the AIPAC folks, it's a bit more complicated than that. Yes, the former only affects Florida, while the latter has a wider disadvantage, but that's because of the large scale support of white Christians for hardline ME policies, rather than Jewish voters' foreign policy views which tend to run to the left of the average American. Though it is true that a moderate stance on the ME would lose Jewish votes for a Dem largely because of the intensity factor and the fact that they have the option of voting a different candidate (hawkish Jews care more about the issue than dovish ones, and in any case the doves aren't about to vote Republican in protest at hawkish foreign policy views).
