Nah. No more than the Cuba lobby runs Latin American policy. Influence, sure, but that goes both ways - witness the attempts by Cheney et. al. to discourage Israel from ending its little Lebanon adventure a while back, or more recently trying to force them to stop talking peace with Syria. The hawks in both countries are a mutually reinforcing lobby which operates to the detriment of both countries (though of course the hawks think otherwise).
As far as the electoral effect of writing off the Cuba lobby vs. the AIPAC folks, it's a bit more complicated than that. Yes, the former only affects Florida, while the latter has a wider disadvantage, but that's because of the large scale support of white Christians for hardline ME policies, rather than Jewish voters' foreign policy views which tend to run to the left of the average American. Though it is true that a moderate stance on the ME would lose Jewish votes for a Dem largely because of the intensity factor and the fact that they have the option of voting a different candidate (hawkish Jews care more about the issue than dovish ones, and in any case the doves aren't about to vote Republican in protest at hawkish foreign policy views).
