1) Judgement of chances, probably tainted by some wishful thinking:
Group A Portugal Czech Republic
Group B Germany Croatia
Group C France Netherlands
Group D Russia Spain
Final winner: Portugal
2) Cruel version:
Group A Portugal Switzerland (good defense)
Group B Poland Croatia (Germany implodes due to team troubles)
Group C Italy Netherlands (pre-tournament match really shows that France is again impotent at scoring)
Group D Greece Sweden
Final winner: Greece against Switzerland *Traitor*, n. A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.