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Mining Suez, Gibraltar, and the Baltic inlets is a piece of cake and the US Navy has practically no mine clearing ability. At least they didn't have it a few years ago. I don't think you want to take very big chances running the gauntlet in mined waters with carriers crewed by 5000 sailors and airmen.

And quite frankly, we're allies, remember?

Eventually the Americans will do the right thing, after they have exhausted all other options. I hope.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Sat Jun 7th, 2008 at 11:03:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
One of their options is to nuke a small ex-NATO nation to prove they mean bizniz.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 8th, 2008 at 03:03:46 AM EST
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I guess the budgets of CEA and FdF should be inversely linked to the deterioration of transatlantic realtions...

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Sun Jun 8th, 2008 at 03:26:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The EU could always lob a few nukes back.

The US military robot empire is o-v-e-r. Iraq and Afghanistan proved that the US doesn't do effectiveness, and maintaining the biggest military in history is about to become unaffordably expensive. So there will be no rods from god - space war is just too damn expensive.

The US mainland is also wide open to an EMP attack and cyber war, either of which would cripple the country almost instantly. While Bush has been having wet dreams about himself as Commander in Chieferator, the real threats have been proliferating elsewhere.

I can't see a hot war between the EU and US developing for at least another couple of decades, and the US is unlikely to be recognisable by then.

I'd be more concerned about relying so heavily on Russian gas - it's a single choke-point, and even if Russian intentions remain honorably mercenary, it's not wise to leave such an obvious vulnerability so very exposed.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sun Jun 8th, 2008 at 07:09:24 AM EST
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Yes, and then the US would lob a few others.

JakeS and I were considering sailing to South America: nuclear fallout takes months to cross the equator by which point the most toxic part of it has decayed...

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 8th, 2008 at 07:13:03 AM EST
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I've heard the Falklands Islands are - if not pleasant, then certainly inhabitable.
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sun Jun 8th, 2008 at 07:48:41 AM EST
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If they're worth a war, they'd better be.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 8th, 2008 at 07:56:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
They've found oil offshore, so count on the place not staying terribly peaceful.

But I guess the Brits are looking forward to trying out their brand new HMS Queen Elizabeth and HMS Prince of Wales when they are completed in 6 and 8 years.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Sun Jun 8th, 2008 at 08:53:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I can't see a hot war between the EU and US developing for at least another couple of decades, and the US is unlikely to be recognisable by then.

You make it sound as if that is likely to be a good thing.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 8th, 2008 at 07:14:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The US military robot empire is o-v-e-r. Iraq and Afghanistan proved that the US doesn't do effectiveness, and maintaining the biggest military in history is about to become unaffordably expensive. So there will be no rods from god - space war is just too damn expensive.

Yes, and unnecessary, and too vulnerable.

I think there is a perceived (but false) time window during which the Cheneys and Feiths think tactical nukes can be used, and that they could change the equation in a way that could be used to rehabilitate their "place in history"--and toast some evil dooers.
Imagine a smoking crater somewhere in Iran with the remains of a few thousand centrifuges floating around in the cloud.

How might the strategic planning of the world's leaders- Europe at the head of the list- change?

Blair kissed the ring to share the loot. Oops. and today? The more thing change--

Sarko the same, I think. But he's a fool who runs on greed and elitism, so it's not so surprising there.

Berlusconi? Never saw a crook he wouldn't embrace.

Granted that to a rational mind, the nuke seems almost a weapon of self-immolation. But such a last-gasp gamble is not so unlikely for an administration that has sneered at "the reality based" thinkers for years- who believe the perception of strength and real strength are not usefully different, and who are themselves going up in smoke, and need a huge diversion.

I can't see a hot war between the EU and US developing for at least another couple of decades, and the US is unlikely to be recognisable by then.

War is unnecessary in the face of capitulation.
And isn't that the point? A nation incredibly altered--but in what way? It's already incredibly altered, and in a savage, self-destructive direction.
I've said it before- they'd kiss his ass in times square if the US were pumping enough oil from Iraq to keep their SUVs alive.
If it's a choice between the US pocketbook and the toy-based "standard of living", or the nuke or Europe-  don't count on the citizens to be a voice of restraint. The time window is pretty much the next few months, I think, for the resurrection of the nuke.
The golden arches (and all that they symbolize) are-or were- a hell of a weapon, but the soul of sweetness compared to the tools that remain to the  empire.

Sorry- this is getting to be a rant.
I'll shut up now.

Capitalism searches out the darkest corners of human potential, and mainlines them.

by geezer in Paris (risico at wanadoo(flypoop)fr) on Mon Jun 9th, 2008 at 09:48:35 AM EST
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