I see Iraq as the US's "Suez moment" defining its "End of Empire" , and I believe that China (maybe plus others, but I doubt it) has read the US (by whispering in Paulson's ear) its economic fortune in the same way the US did to the Brits at Suez.
The US plan was to march in and free up Iraqi resources for Big Oil and Big Money, and having done that, to move on to Iran.
The initial military success shocked the Libyans into "going straight" and also shocked the Iranians, who offered the US everything they are are currently after. In their arrogance, the US rejected the Iranian offer, of course.
The moment of truth subsequently was Fallujah, I think.
That's when it became clear there needed to be a Plan B.
It was after that point - if there was anything in the MSM before, I cannot remember it - that the Iranian "nuclear threat" became an issue, and has remained so ever since.
It isn't an issue of course, but it is a good excuse for sabre rattling by both sides. It suits Ahmadinejad to do this to keep attention on the Great Satan and away from domestic policy failures.
The US has come to realise since Fallujah that Iran has effective veto power in Iraq, and of course projects onto Iran its own hegmonic ambitions, which is bonkers. Iran has never been looking for hegemony: it is looking for guarantees of security.
If there was a moment for an attack by the US on Iran, it is long past. We see the rhetoric ramped up periodically in order to try and pressure the Iraqi's into agreements, whether on oil production sharing or the related US "security" presence, and to convince the Iranians to keep their noses out of these agreements.
I wouldn't rule out an attack on Iran altogether, because there are one or two bonkers people in both the US and Iranian governments capable of precipitating it.
On that note I have a sneaking feeling that the weird US incident of nuclear armed cruise missiles "inadvertently" shipped on a B52 might have been something along those "private enterprise" quasi Strangelove lines. "Any economic unit can emit money. The serious problem is to get it accepted" Hyman Minsky
Not sure we mean it in the same way but yes, that was the turning point of the war, the day the Bushidiots dropped the only ace they had in their sleeve: military force.
