What will be interesting is how local governments and social agencies will respond. In New England's poorly insulated houses (many built in the 1920s) with oil furnaces, it is not unusual to go through 200 gallons of oil per month in the winter, which at $5 a gallon is quite a bit of money for those in the social class that typically lives in row houses.
But there are also some pretty tightly knit communities, many the remnants of previous generations of immigrants (e.g., Swedish, Polish, Italian, etc.) and recent immigrants (many from South America). It is not difficult to envision a support system within these communities that could help the most needy. For example, in floods and in the Blitz, people gathered and slept in school gymnasiums. If heating fuel becomes a crisis of that proportion, people will gather and sleep in the gym.
Certainly some people will die in the transition, particularly if they are not connected to their neighbors, but the question is about the scale of the problem.
Here is my simplistic approach:
That wouldn't take any rationing (possibly state help, but is that communist too?). I visited old houses in Sweden (I mean 18th century), and clearly the house was smaller in the winter. Is that not better than death, though?
Moreover, if we don't quickly learn to make do with less burning of oil, there WILL be a lot of deaths. Trying to sustain for a few extra years the most unsustainable of lifestyles is not really helping.
Anyway, I want a government program of course (I am French after all). But short of that, "bring cheap oil or we'll freeze to death" while dismissing any of the lifestyle changes strikes me as the wrong reaction. Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi
Mind you, the last time it was tried it cost a lot more oil than it has generated, but you never know ... look around and there might be a better, safer bet. Nigeria, maybe. 8-)# {ducks, runs for cover} I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
I assume the people have access to good quality plastic sheeting and duct tape (as recommended by their government's anti-terror agency or some such...)to tighten up those cracks in their crappy houses a bit.
You know, when Homeland Security was trying to decide on a symbol, my father suggested an eagle soaring up with a strip of duct tape stretched between its talons. My aunt, always the super-serious bureaucrat, did not see the humor.
Anyway, I suspect you're right. It'd be uncomfortable, but talk of people freezing to death on a large scale is difficult to imagine. Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
