There has been endless jabber in the blogsphere about a possible October surprise, an attack on Iran to strengthen John McCain's bid for the White House. After last week's Iranian missile tests in response to an earlier Israeli air force exercise that included in-flight re-fueling operations, the media was abuzz with speculations about Israel possibly going it alone. Now it's definite, almost official: there won't be an attack on Iran during the remainder of President Bush's tenure.

What evidence I have to make such a claim? None. What crucial factors I can cite to base my take on? Three.

First, yesterday evening, The Guardian revealed that the Bush White House is to announce next month the opening of an US interests section in Tehran, thus re-establishing direct diplomatic relations with Iran after almost thirty years.

Second, at Saturday's talks in Geneva between the EU-3 and Iran, the US will be represented by Undersecretary of State, William Burns. For the first time US and Iranian negotiators will officially meet one-on-one to discuss the latter's nuclear enrichment.

Third, according to Anthony Cordesman, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Michael Mullen was sent to Israel ten days ago to tell Tel Aviv quite frankly that the U.S. would neither approve nor green-light an Israeli solo run.

~"When an inner situation is not made conscious, it appears outside as fate." Karl Jung~