I distrust national polls this far out from an election. There's just too many things that can happen, e.g., McCain dropping dead. Also, we're in the summer-doldrums when most voters are more interested in vacationing than politics.
State polls, I think, matter more at this stage. Looking ahead to the election there are two states that matter: Florida and Ohio. McCain has to carry both to win. If Obama wins both then he's got himself a landslide. Polls in these states have been swaying back and forth over the last month; Ohio seems to swing mostly Obama and Florida mostly for McCain. Watching these states, I think, will tell us who is building a solid base of support that can be expanded upon during the active campaign season -- which we are not in, yet.
I do have to point-out Obama needs the under 30 vote. This group has tended to favor Democrats in past but have not bothered to pull the lever. That's CW. But no major Democratic campaign has ever, to my knowledge, actively gone out to bring them into the campaign and actively sought their support. That's the big difference Obama is putting into the mix. With this group I don't expect them to show-up much in the polls. First, there is the known cell-phone problem. Second, their percentage of the electrate is under-represented in polling models, based on history, versus what may happen on Nov. 4. So even if they do come out, big time, for Obama the polls may not 'see' it coming.
As evidence, I offer one word: Iowa.
The cell phone issues is less of an issue these days, because groups like Gallup now poll cell phones. But, as you allude to, if they're not accounting for the proportion of the overall electorate that will be made up of young people, the polls will be skewed in St John's favor. Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
Saying you're right, do you realize what that means? We may be seeing the end of the GOP as a national political party.
It's not even close to being over, because Obama is not - you know - actually all that progressive. A few million people switching registration doesn't mean squat if there isn't a tsunami-sized policy shift.
Obama may make some paddling pool ripples - he's going to have to, to prove that he's not a slightly milder and more personable Bush II.
But there will be no tsunami. And the rot will still be there under the surface, the networks of crazies will still be dropping spores, waiting for a better time to sprout.
The youngin's will show up.
I certainly hope so. I vividly recall voting for Humpfrey in '68, my 2nd Presidential election, after having been so bitterly disappointed by LBJ after the '65 escalation in Vietnam. (I was proposing a National Day of Prayer to have millions of people praying for him to have a heart attack. Call me disillusioned.) I was NOT excited by Humpfrey, but even staying at home was not an option. California seemed in play. As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
