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So, trying to stay awake during the All-Star game last night, during commercials I was watching Charlie Rose, who was interviewing economists about our little situation.  Jesus, it was like, this must have been what people listening to "War of the Worlds" felt.  I mean, they were basically like, "Oh, we're all gonna die."  One guy just kept saying, "It's so creepy.  Creepy!  That's the only word for it.  That should be the economic terminology for it.  It's just <<shudder>> creepy!"  He looked like he hadn't slept in a few weeks.  He seemed like a smart academic sort, an old guy, who was probably sharp and eloquent, but who'd just experienced some trauma and was now reduced to uttering "creepy creepy creepy" as a bit of drool escaped his mouth.  His eyes looked genuinely scared.  Then a young woman was talking, and she was in agreement, but had a different attitude.  Like people who go on scary rides at the fair.  She knew it was going to make her scream and puke, but she was a bit giggly with the adrenaline rush.  Charlie asked if it would be worse than the Great Depression, and her eyes lit up.  She said it could, probably would, but ... we don't know where it will end.  We have no idea.  She said that like Willie Wonka, with that mad gleam in her eye.  Oh, yeah, we're all gonna die.  Isn't it just ... wild?  This all went on from the 10th to 15th inning.  At which time I went to bed, before the American league won (I blame myself.)  But not before the same program (Charlie Rose, not the game) featured some energy expert saying something about nuclear being able to only generate a fraction of what renewables could, for much more cost.  I liked him.  But he looked a bit frazzled too.  

Here:
http://www.charlierose.com/home

It's the Tuesday July 17 show, when they have the video up.    

"Pretending that you already know the answer when you don't is not actually very helpful." ~Migeru.

by poemless on Wed Jul 16th, 2008 at 02:05:24 PM EST
Well, you know poemless; us old guys scare real easy :-)

Hey, Grandma Moses started late!
by LEP (rafifoon@yahoo.com) on Wed Jul 16th, 2008 at 02:23:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, it's tragic, but, yeah, I guess I can see how it might give some economists the same feeling that normal people get when they watch porn.  I think the woman is looking at it a little too much like an academic in a cushy job, and not enough like a human.  The old guy sounds a bit too worried.  I don't think it's going to be another Great Depression.  People always throw around references to the Depression when the economy goes downhill (This is it!), and I think it underscores a failure of many people to appreciate how bad things truly were back in the 1930s.

Not to say it couldn't happen with this downturn, but I think there's some Chicken Little-ism going on among some economists.  And certainly you have quite a few of the survivalist-type libertarians out there in the blogosphere who are cheering for another depression.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Wed Jul 16th, 2008 at 03:22:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
My 97 year old Father-in-Law is saying our current situation reminds him of 1929, after the stock market crash, but before the disasters of 1930.  If things hold to the pattern we've got about a year before a full blown Depression hits.

A good thing is the strong chance the GOP will be powerless.  With a Democrat in the White House and both houses controlled by Democrats some of the pre-conditions for solving and alleviating the conditions exist.  At least due to the last tattered shreds from the New Deal they won't rule out "Socialist" (eek!) Solutions from the get-go.  But in the current political climate I doubt they will enact the emergency measures needed to slip by an economic crises.

by ATinNM on Wed Jul 16th, 2008 at 03:47:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Like I said, I'm not suggesting it's impossible that this is something like the Depression.  I'm just saying it's unlikely things get that out of hand.  Remember the Depression became the Depression largely as a result of Hoover and the Fed doing the exact opposite of what they were supposed to do.  The current situation, to me, feels more like 1980 than anything else, except to say that Bush actually deserves a lot of blame, unlike Carter.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Wed Jul 16th, 2008 at 05:16:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
How old were you in 1980?  

You're younger than I, iirc, and all I can remember from 1980 is what kindergarten felt like.  The Letter People and learning my phone number and playing with my friend Andie, whose house smelled weired, and milk break and the kid who stole the flowers we brought for the teacher...  Oh, and early morning pony rides.  Ponies and milk and cookies is what 1980 felt like to me.

"Pretending that you already know the answer when you don't is not actually very helpful." ~Migeru.

by poemless on Wed Jul 16th, 2008 at 05:30:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Erm, I was -4.

So, technically, it didn't happen, I suppose. ;)

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Wed Jul 16th, 2008 at 05:38:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
the Fed doing the exact opposite of what they were supposed to do.

Can you trust the Fed to do what it´s supposed to do now....?

Our knowledge has surpassed our wisdom. -Charu Saxena.

by metavision on Wed Jul 16th, 2008 at 05:43:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
We're not even close to being in the same environment as we were in 1980.  As I wrote on another thread, what with the various Peaks running around and Global Climate Change to boot as well as the economic problems we've got a serious crisis on our hands.  Applying the solutions of the eighties or the thirties isn't going to cut it.  
by ATinNM on Wed Jul 16th, 2008 at 09:11:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If it weren't for the FDIC, wouldn't this already be like another 1929?  

"Pretending that you already know the answer when you don't is not actually very helpful." ~Migeru.
by poemless on Wed Jul 16th, 2008 at 05:25:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Not even close.  It doesn't even measure up to the S&L crisis for now (nor is it likely to in terms of the number of banks that fail [knocks on wood]).

The Dow dropped pretty close to 50% of its value in a matter of a month in '29 and didn't recover until the mid-'50s.  The current market's off about 20% from the high last fall, so it's a bear market (which is still rubbish), but nothing like the ferocity of '29.

And, as I said to AT, if we were facing a '29-like crash, then I think it would be the case that Bernanke's probably reacting in roughly the correct way, compared with the Fed of the Great Depression.

But I think Bernanke's overreacting and casting the net too wide on what constitute critical financial institutions.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Wed Jul 16th, 2008 at 05:55:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Not the market itself, but the people running to the banks to get their money out...

"Pretending that you already know the answer when you don't is not actually very helpful." ~Migeru.
by poemless on Wed Jul 16th, 2008 at 06:02:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sure, but that's happened before, not just in 1929.  Banks fail, and people rush to get their money out, even though they know it's insured today.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Wed Jul 16th, 2008 at 06:09:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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